Premier League Predictions Week 4: Previews, Best Bets, and Analysis

Premier League Predictions Week 4: Recommended Bets

• Chelsea to WIN and OVER 2.5 goals, +254 at FanDuel
• Liverpool to WIN and to score OVER 3.5 goals, +171 at FanDuel
• Tottenham to WIN to nil and OVER 2.5 goals, +298 @ FanDuel

Rewriting the Rulebook

This time last year, almost all of the “Big Six” occupied spots at the top of the table, but the same cannot be said for this time around… 

Leading the way, Arsenal has committed to a full transformation when looking back to the previous year. Currently undefeated, they’re miles ahead of the team we saw last season where it took 4 games to get some points on the board. In a shock, Arsenal escaped Manchester City’s grip thanks to a spectacle at St James Park leaving the ‘Citizens’ just two points behind. 

It’s too early to be getting hopeful, yet for Leeds and Newcastle, fans have hit a fever pitch in what can only be described as a dream start for the clubs. Major overhauls in managers and owners have paid off, but they’ll need to maintain their aggression if they’re to contend against other big hitters: Liverpool and Chelsea following their slow start out of the gate. 

Whilst we expect these two to bounce back, alarms should be ringing for clubs at the bottom of the table. Wolves are clearly missing creativity in a striker and a lack of chances being created. Leicester has failed to answer their ongoing defensive issues, with added pressure following Schmeichels’ departure. West Ham enters this week the only team yet to register a point, no surprise given they look so far off the pace moving the ball around the pitch. 

For a few of the “Big Six”, week 4 is an important one. It’s now or never before they fall off the pace. With a lot to consider, here are our Premier League week 4 predictions. Having pored over the best EPL week 4 odds, here are our top three picks. 

Premier League Predictions Week 4

Leicester City @ Chelsea

Saturday, August 27 at 10:00 am ET

For both Leicester and Chelsea, these are starts to the Premier League they’ll be looking to turn around, and quickly. Chelsea is less of a concern going into this game. They were favorites going into the game against Leeds, yet after a howler by keeper Edouard Mendy, Leeds looked relentless exposing huge areas of space left unoccupied by their midfield. This ended with Koulibaly being sent off for his tackle against Gelhardt, in what can only be called a bad day at the office. 

Thomas Tuchel will likely go back to basics, especially with his backline. Now that Chilwell is returning following a season-ending injury, we’d expect to see him and James occupy the usual wing-back positions. Last season, James created 48 chances from this position, and with new signing Sterling up top, now is the best time to exploit his creativity. 

Leicester is poised to suffer from this. Having conceded 8 goals already (more than any other team), going against a team that has won possession in the midfield more than 17 other teams will mean they’ll likely face a relentless side as they fail to control the direction of play. 

If Leicester can’t control that midfield area, it’s unlikely we’ll see anything other than a win for Chelsea. With their added defensive woes, we’d expect a number of goals for the home side, especially considering that Leicester conceded 2 to an uninspiring Southampton side last week, Chelsea scoring at least one more doesn’t seem out of the question. 

Premier League Predictions Week 4: Recommended Bet

• Chelsea to WIN and OVER 2.5 goals, +254 at FanDuel

AFC Bournemouth @ Liverpool

Saturday, August 27 at 10:00 am ET

Two points, from a potential nine, will be leaving Liverpool bitterly disappointed. Perhaps not a fair reflection of their on-field performance as they’ve created 7 big chances so far - the third highest in the league. Against Manchester United, the story was no different. Recording 70% possession and 17 shots (5 on target). So why wasn’t this reflected in the scoreline? 

For the past few years, Liverpool’s front three dominated the league. With Sadio Mane moving on and Bobby Firminio not getting as much game time, this is a period of transition for them. We have no doubt that Luis Diaz and Darwin Nunez will be solid replacements, but it will take time to click. The current problem lies in their extensive injury list with playmakers Thiago and Curtis Jones out for the foreseeable future. 

Being clinical when Bournemouth show up at Anfield will be what kick-starts their season and there is no better occasion for this. Only Forest has a worst expected Goal Difference (xGD) than Bournemouth having conceded 7 goals already this season. This paired with an unrivaled home atmosphere will have Liverpool firing on all cylinders. 

Once Liverpool ticks, we have no doubt they’ll become a force to be reckoned with. Having managed 52 shots, and an average of 26 big chances created, teams are soon to feel the full brunt of the attack. Looking at the Week 4 EPL odds, the expectation will be for Mohammed Salah and Luis Diaz to get on the scoresheet, it also wouldn’t be a surprise if they were able to keep a clean sheet, yet this is a larger gamble. 

Premier League Predictions Week 4: Recommended Bet

• Liverpool to WIN and to score OVER 3.5 goals, +171 at FanDuel

Tottenham Hotspur @ Nottingham Forest

Sunday, August 28 at 11:30 am ET

Antonio Conte’s Spurs continue to live up to expectations. With a number of successful signings over the summer, the difference between the top teams and the newly promoted sides is clear. That’s thanks to the new rule allowing for five subs to be made in a game - Teams like Spurs can play the full 90 minutes with an intensity a thin squad cannot keep up with. This was clear in their match against Wolves, after Harry Kane scored the only goal of the game, fresh legs were brought on to improve their defensive line; Yves Bissouma and Ryan Sessegnon. Inevitably, Spurs only conceded 8 shots in the second half compared to 12 in the first. 

Don’t be fooled by the scoreline, Spurs are capable of so much more. Over the season, they’ve had 39 shots, 17 on target, resulting in seven goals. Being clinical is paying them dividends here, only second to Manchester City when we look at the number of shots on target per game - averaging 5.7. This will be down to Antonio Conte’s approach who favors a 3-5-2 formation in which the wing backs can overlap the midfield creating more chances for forwards Harry Kane and Heung-Min Son. Now paired with the fresh legs of Dejan Kulusevski and Richarlison, they can keep this up much longer than their competition. 

In comes Nottingham Forest. After a 23-year long wait out of the Premier League, they’re finally up against some of the best. Sitting mid-table will please fans of a side that had the highest odds for relegation at the start of the season, but don’t expect this to continue. The Premier League season is a grueling calendar played at the highest level, having a thin squad will eventually catch up to Forest and we’re already seeing some cracks form. They’re top of the list when we look at expected goals conceded, meaning they’ve conceded the most chances where a goal could’ve been expected. With a clinical Tottenham front-line, we could be in for a goal-fest. 

We expect a Tottenham win, with at least three goals in the match 

Premier League Predictions Week 4: Recommended Bet

• Tottenham to WIN to nil and OVER 2.5 goals, +298 @ FanDuel

Other Fixtures: EPL Week 4 Odds

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Who are the Big 6 in the Premier League? 

The "Big 6" includes Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester City, Manchester United, and Tottenham Hotspur. These teams have dominated the English Premier League and are often found fighting for the top spots in the table. 

Who is currently No. 1 in the Premier League? 

Arsenal goes into week 4 at the top of the Premier League. They've won all games so far collecting nine points, closely followed by Manchester City, Leeds United and Tottenham Hotspur all on seven points. 

Conclusion

Far from the dream start for Liverpool, whilst Arsenal keeps on coming on strength by strength. Our EPL predictions for week 4 look at what's in store for the heavy hitters in this upcoming gameday. If you're looking for more soccer content, read our guide: How To Bet on Soccer, and visit our odds comparison tool to compare the latest odds.