• The Bills offense ranks elite in explosive passes (10.8%, 94th percentile) and deep-pass explosives (6.3%, 86th), but Atlanta’s defense allows explosives on only 3.6% of passes (94th).

• Buffalo’s defense converts pressure to sacks at 8.3% (83rd percentile), a test for Atlanta’s line with multiple tackles on IR.

• Atlanta’s defense is strong on third-and-short, stuffing 55.6% (91st percentile), which can stall Bills drives in short yard spots.

• Buffalo is vulnerable to big runs, allowing explosive rushes at 7.8% (9th percentile), which fits Bijan Robinson’s burst.

• Injuries increase variance: Bills’ secondary has one starter out and others questionable; Atlanta lists Drake London, Kyle Pitts, and A.J. Terrell as questionable. Tie availability to how each team attacks.

• Scheme notes: Atlanta lives in shotgun (70.4%, 100th percentile), while Buffalo mixes more under center (57.8%, 84th), signaling different tempos and play-action looks.

• Spread anchor: Bills -5.5 (-105). You get a friendlier price, but you need Buffalo by six.

• Alternate: Bills -5.0 (-122) if you want to shave the hook at a steeper tax.

• Total anchor: 49.5 (Over -112 / Under -114). Near 50, so small juice matters if you expect a late field goal vs touchdown trade.

• Bijan Robinson Over 77.5 rushing yards (-118): Targets a defense with a 7.8% explosive run rate allowed.

• Josh Allen Over 229.5 passing yards (-118): Buffalo’s explosive pass rate (10.8%) supports volume even if ATL caps deep shots.

• Michael Penix Jr. Under 217.5 passing yards (-119): Buffalo’s 8.3% pressure-to-sack rate meets Atlanta’s injury-hit OL; short field throws may limit total yards.

• Dalton Kincaid Over 38.5 receiving yards (-120): Tight end usage fits if ATL’s corners erase perimeter explosives.

• Drake London Over 67.5 receiving yards (-119): If active, WR1 volume in a condensed target tree. Volatility note: Questionable.

Buffalo’s edge comes from Allen’s playmaking and a passing game that creates chunk gains. Atlanta’s edge comes from an elite explosive-pass defense and a run game that can pop big plays. Which edge shows first will likely decide the cover.

If the Falcons win early downs with Bijan, they can slow the game and set up play-action shots. If Buffalo protects and hits intermediate windows to Kincaid and the receivers, the Bills can build a lead and stress Atlanta’s pass game.

The market sits Bills by about a touchdown margin and a total near 50. Our lean is Buffalo to cover the mid-single-digit spread, with game flow tied to red-zone finish and which team wins the explosives tug-of-war.

Monitor inactives. Several starters carry questionable tags, and that news can flip prop value and even tilt the total. As always, price your plays and respect the juice.