NFLGame PreviewsBUF VS ATL Preview Week6 13-Oct-2025

Game Preview of Buffalo Bills @ Atlanta Falcons. Week 6 of 2025 NFL Season

BUF logo

BUF

4-1-0
@
13OCT25
07:15pm
ATL logo

ATL

2-2-0
Mercedes-Benz Stadium

Game Preview

The Buffalo Bills visit the Atlanta Falcons on Monday, Oct. 13 at 7:15 PM ET at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Buffalo is the favorite, laying around five to six points. The total sits just under 50.

 

This matchup is strength on strength. The Bills create explosive passes at a top-tier rate. The Falcons shut those down as well as anyone. That chess match will shape the night for Josh Allen and Michael Penix Jr.

 

Health matters. Buffalo’s secondary is thin with Taron Johnson out and several starters listed questionable. Atlanta’s receivers and tight end room are also banged up, and the Falcons have multiple tackles on injured reserve. Expect late news to swing some player markets.

 

Atlanta can keep this close if the run game punches through. Bijan Robinson has a lane against a Bills defense that has leaked long runs. Buffalo answers with Allen’s arm and legs, plus a quick outlet to tight end Dalton Kincaid when deep shots aren’t there.

Current Season Form

BUF logo

BUF

Away
Record:4-1-0
ATS:2-3-0
O/U:3-2-0
ATL logo

ATL

Home
Record:2-2-0
ATS:2-2-0
O/U:1-3-0

Head-to-Head Summary

Record:
2-3Winner logo
ATS:1-3-1
O/U:2-3-0

Past Results

DateOpponentResultATSO/U
2025-09-28vs WASW 34-27W +2.5o43.5
2025-09-21@ CARL 0-30L -5.5u44.5
2025-09-14@ MINW 22-6W +3.5u44.5
2025-09-07vs TBL 20-23L -1.5u47.5
2025-01-05vs CARL 38-44W +7.5o48.5
2024-12-29@ WASL 24-30L 3.5o46.5
2024-12-22vs NYGW 34-7W +9.5u42.5
2024-12-16@ LVW 15-9W +-6.5u44.5
2024-12-08@ MINL 21-42L 6.0o46.5
2024-12-01vs LACL 13-17L -1.0u47.0

Key Insights

 

  • The Bills offense ranks elite in explosive passes (10.8%, 94th percentile) and deep-pass explosives (6.3%, 86th), but Atlanta’s defense allows explosives on only 3.6% of passes (94th).

  • Buffalo’s defense converts pressure to sacks at 8.3% (83rd percentile), a test for Atlanta’s line with multiple tackles on IR.

  • Atlanta’s defense is strong on third-and-short, stuffing 55.6% (91st percentile), which can stall Bills drives in short yard spots.

  • Buffalo is vulnerable to big runs, allowing explosive rushes at 7.8% (9th percentile), which fits Bijan Robinson’s burst.

  • Injuries increase variance: Bills’ secondary has one starter out and others questionable; Atlanta lists Drake London, Kyle Pitts, and A.J. Terrell as questionable. Tie availability to how each team attacks.

  • Scheme notes: Atlanta lives in shotgun (70.4%, 100th percentile), while Buffalo mixes more under center (57.8%, 84th), signaling different tempos and play-action looks.

 

Betting Insights

 

  • Spread anchor: Bills -5.5 (-105). You get a friendlier price, but you need Buffalo by six.

  • Alternate: Bills -5.0 (-122) if you want to shave the hook at a steeper tax.

  • Total anchor: 49.5 (Over -112 / Under -114). Near 50, so small juice matters if you expect a late field goal vs touchdown trade.

  • Bijan Robinson Over 77.5 rushing yards (-118): Targets a defense with a 7.8% explosive run rate allowed.

  • Josh Allen Over 229.5 passing yards (-118): Buffalo’s explosive pass rate (10.8%) supports volume even if ATL caps deep shots.

  • Michael Penix Jr. Under 217.5 passing yards (-119): Buffalo’s 8.3% pressure-to-sack rate meets Atlanta’s injury-hit OL; short field throws may limit total yards.

  • Dalton Kincaid Over 38.5 receiving yards (-120): Tight end usage fits if ATL’s corners erase perimeter explosives.

  • Drake London Over 67.5 receiving yards (-119): If active, WR1 volume in a condensed target tree. Volatility note: Questionable.

 

Final Summary

Buffalo’s edge comes from Allen’s playmaking and a passing game that creates chunk gains. Atlanta’s edge comes from an elite explosive-pass defense and a run game that can pop big plays. Which edge shows first will likely decide the cover.

If the Falcons win early downs with Bijan, they can slow the game and set up play-action shots. If Buffalo protects and hits intermediate windows to Kincaid and the receivers, the Bills can build a lead and stress Atlanta’s pass game.

The market sits Bills by about a touchdown margin and a total near 50. Our lean is Buffalo to cover the mid-single-digit spread, with game flow tied to red-zone finish and which team wins the explosives tug-of-war.

Monitor inactives. Several starters carry questionable tags, and that news can flip prop value and even tilt the total. As always, price your plays and respect the juice.

Statistical Battle Boards

Viewing: ATL Offense vs BUF Defense
Offense team logoOffense
Defense team logoDefense
StatisticOffenseRankDefenseRankAdvantage
Total Points76#30113#14BUF advantage
Total Points Per Game19#2622.6#18BUF advantage
Total Touchdowns7#3113#18BUF advantage
Passing Touchdowns3#316#9BUF advantage
Rushing Touchdowns4#167#29ATL advantage
Other Touchdowns0#140#6BUF advantage
Total Kicking Points34#1935#19🏈
Total Two Point Conversions0#320#32🏈
Kick Extra Points7#2711#13BUF advantage
Offense team logoOffense
Defense team logoDefense
StatisticOffenseRankDefenseRankAdvantage
Net Passing Yards905#25770#31ATL advantage
Net Passing Yards Per Game226#13154#31ATL advantage
Passer Rating82.5#2591#17BUF advantage
Passing Attempts132#29133#3BUF advantage
Completions83#3186#30BUF advantage
Completion Percentage62.9#2564.7#11BUF advantage
Passing 1st downs46#2444#5BUF advantage
Passing 1st Down %55.4#1847.8#5BUF advantage
Longest Pass69#739#31ATL advantage
Passing Fumbles Lost1#181#9BUF advantage
Receiving Targets130#28126#30ATL advantage
Receptions83#3186#3BUF advantage
Receiving Yards After Catch493#21392#2BUF advantage
YAC Average5.9#44.6#10ATL advantage
Offense team logoOffense
Defense team logoDefense
StatisticOffenseRankDefenseRankAdvantage
Rushing Yards546#21728#29ATL advantage
Rushing Yards Per Game136#6146#5BUF advantage
Rushing Attempts127#17131#19ATL advantage
Yards Per Rush Attempt4.3#185.6#3BUF advantage
Rushing 1st downs31#1842#29ATL advantage
20+ Yard Rushing Plays1#284#8BUF advantage
Long Rushing25#2349#13BUF advantage
Rushing Fumbles1#284#8BUF advantage
Rushing Fumbles Lost1#102#5BUF advantage