Game Preview of Chicago Bears @ Las Vegas Raiders. Week 4 of 2025 NFL Season
CHI
LV
Game Preview
The Chicago Bears visit the Las Vegas Raiders at Allegiant Stadium on Sept. 28. Kickoff is 1:00 PM ET. The moneyline is close to a pick’em, with Las Vegas a small home favorite.
Caleb Williams comes in hot after his four-touchdown outing. Chicago’s passing traits point to more chunk gains. The Bears rank top tier in deep-pass explosiveness, which means gains of 20 or more downfield.
Las Vegas leans into its own big-play passing. The Raiders sit near the top in explosive pass rate, defined here as gains of 15 or more through the air. That matches up with a Bears secondary missing Pro Bowler Jaylon Johnson and waiting on Kyler Gordon.
Trenches may swing the script. The Raiders have a high sack rate allowed and are down a starting tackle and center. Chicago’s pass rush numbers are average, but the injuries could still tilt pressure toward the Bears.
Current Season Form
CHI
AwayLV
HomeHead-to-Head Summary
Past Results
| Date | Opponent | Result | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-21 | @ WAS | L 24-41 | L 2.5 | o43.5 |
| 2025-09-15 | vs LAC | L 9-20 | L -3.5 | u46.5 |
| 2025-09-07 | @ NE | W 20-13 | W +2.5 | u44.5 |
| 2025-01-05 | vs LAC | L 20-34 | L -7.0 | o42.5 |
| 2024-12-29 | @ NO | W 25-10 | W +-2.0 | u37.5 |
| 2024-12-22 | vs JAX | W 19-14 | W +2.5 | u41.5 |
| 2024-12-16 | vs ATL | L 9-15 | L -6.5 | u44.5 |
| 2024-12-08 | @ TB | L 13-28 | L 7.0 | u47.0 |
| 2024-11-29 | @ KC | L 17-19 | L 13.5 | u42.0 |
| 2024-11-24 | vs DEN | L 19-29 | L -6.5 | o41.5 |
Key Insights
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Raiders create chunk throws: LV explosive pass rate is 12.3% (97th percentile; sample 114), while Chicago allows explosive passes at 9.6% (12th; sample 94).
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Bears can extend drives: Chicago converts 47.5% on third down (94th; sample 40). That helps Williams keep possessions alive.
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Chicago’s defense wins third down: Third-down stop rate is 68.8% (94th; sample 32), a key counter to LV’s big-play approach.
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Las Vegas protection is a concern: Sack rate allowed is 10.2% (9th; sample 118), and the Raiders list LT Charles Grant Out and C Jackson Powers-Johnson Out.
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Bears run game lacks explosives: Chicago’s explosive run rate is 1.2% (9th; sample 83), while LV limits explosive runs at 2.7% (72nd; sample 73).
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Small-sample note: Several red-zone metrics show 7 to 11-play samples. Treat those as hints, not certainties.
Betting Insights
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Anchor spread: Raiders -3.5 (+130). Bears +3.5 sits at -189. The hook to 3.5 brings late-game swing risk.
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Anchor total: 47.5 (Over -122, Under -110). Both teams carry explosive pass traits that can push scoring, but protection issues add variance.
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Moneyline is tight: Raiders -111, Bears -104. Pricing reflects a near coin flip.
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Jakobi Meyers over 65.5 receiving yards (-119): Chicago’s explosive-pass defense ranks low and Johnson is on IR.
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Tre Tucker over 42.5 receiving yards (-119): LV’s explosive pass rate is elite; Tucker’s route depth fits that profile.
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Geno Smith over 254.5 passing yards (-119): Bears allow chunk throws; OL injuries introduce volatility.
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Caleb Williams over 229.5 passing yards (-119): Bears rate 91st percentile in deep-pass explosiveness; LV is mid-pack in preventing explosives.
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DJ Moore over 43.5 receiving yards (-120): Chicago’s overall explosive pass rate (8.9%; 83rd) supports a friendly number.
Final Summary
This matchup sets up as a quarterback game. Both teams can hit explosives through the air. The key is which line holds up long enough to let routes develop.
Las Vegas has the home field and the spread at -3.5. The Raiders’ passing scheme rates at the very top for creating explosives. Chicago’s secondary health puts stress on those deep zones.
Chicago answers with third-down strength and a rising star under center. If the Bears keep Williams clean and convert in the red zone, they can trade scores.
Prices show a near toss-up and a total near 47.5. Factor in juice and injuries before you fire. Questionable tags at receiver and tight end on both sides add late news risk, so size bets with that variance in mind.
Statistical Battle Boards
OffenseDefense| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Points | 53 | #26 | 93 | #4 | |
| Total Points Per Game | 17.7 | #26 | 31 | #28 | |
| Total Touchdowns | 5 | #26 | 11 | #30 | |
| Passing Touchdowns | 4 | #20 | 8 | #32 | |
| Rushing Touchdowns | 1 | #26 | 3 | #22 | |
| Other Touchdowns | 0 | #14 | 0 | #15 | |
| Total Kicking Points | 21 | #20 | 23 | #16 | |
| Total Two Point Conversions | 1 | #3 | 2 | #1 | |
| Kick Extra Points | 3 | #31 | 8 | #15 | |
OffenseDefense| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Passing Yards | 744 | #6 | 743 | #6 | 🏈 |
| Net Passing Yards Per Game | 248 | #6 | 248 | #6 | 🏈 |
| Passer Rating | 83.1 | #22 | 110 | #5 | |
| Passing Attempts | 106 | #10 | 93 | #15 | |
| Completions | 67 | #11 | 70 | #8 | |
| Completion Percentage | 63.2 | #22 | 75.3 | #31 | |
| Passing 1st downs | 37 | #8 | 34 | #19 | |
| Passing 1st Down % | 69.8 | #2 | 54.8 | #13 | |
| Longest Pass | 61 | #4 | 64 | #3 | |
| Passing Fumbles Lost | 0 | #24 | 0 | #17 | |
| Receiving Targets | 103 | #10 | 92 | #16 | |
| Receptions | 67 | #11 | 70 | #25 | |
| Receiving Yards After Catch | 375 | #3 | 350 | #24 | |
| YAC Average | 5.6 | #6 | 5 | #20 | |
OffenseDefense| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing Yards | 217 | #30 | 418 | #27 | |
| Rushing Yards Per Game | 72.3 | #30 | 139 | #6 | |
| Rushing Attempts | 71 | #22 | 76 | #12 | |
| Yards Per Rush Attempt | 3.1 | #30 | 5.5 | #2 | |
| Rushing 1st downs | 13 | #29 | 22 | #21 | |
| 20+ Yard Rushing Plays | 0 | #31 | 3 | #3 | |
| Long Rushing | 18 | #28 | 42 | #10 | |
| Rushing Fumbles | 0 | #31 | 3 | #3 | |
| Rushing Fumbles Lost | 0 | #28 | 1 | #5 | |
