NFLGame PreviewsCHI VS WSH Preview Week6 13-Oct-2025

Game Preview of Chicago Bears @ Washington Commanders. Week 6 of 2025 NFL Season

CHI logo

CHI

2-2-0
@
14OCT25
08:15pm
WSH logo

WSH

3-2-0
Northwest Stadium

Game Preview

It’s Bears at Commanders on Monday night at Northwest Stadium, Oct. 13, 8:15 PM ET. Two second-year quarterbacks lead the show. Caleb Williams brings a big-play profile. Jayden Daniels adds speed and stress for defenses if he’s healthy.

 

Chicago’s defense is streaky but dangerous on key downs. They stop 70% of third downs, the best rate in our 2025 sample. The flip side: they’ve leaked explosive runs. That’s where Daniels’ legs and Washington’s backs can tilt the field, if the questionable tags clear.

 

Injuries hang over this matchup. Daniels is questionable with a leg issue. So are wideouts Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel Sr. Chicago lists D’Andre Swift, Cole Kmet, and LT Darnell Wright as questionable. Availability could swing the script and the total.

 

The market sets a clear lean to Washington at home, but not a blowout. Our anchor spread sits at Commanders -4.5. The total is pinned at 50.0, which signals scoring chances on both sides if quarterbacks are near full strength.

Current Season Form

CHI logo

CHI

Away
Record:2-2-0
ATS:2-2-0
O/U:3-1-0
WSH logo

WSH

Home
Record:3-2-0
ATS:3-2-0
O/U:2-3-0

Head-to-Head Summary

Record:
2-3Winner logo
ATS:2-3-0
O/U:3-2-0

Past Results

DateOpponentResultATSO/U
2025-10-05@ LACW 27-10W +2.5u47.5
2025-09-28@ ATLL 27-34L 2.5o43.5
2025-09-21vs LVW 41-24W +2.5o43.5
2025-09-11@ GBL 18-27L 3.5u48.5
2025-09-07vs NYGW 21-6W +6.0u45.5
2025-01-26@ PHIL 23-55L 6.0o46.5
2025-01-18@ DETW 45-31W +8.5o55.5
2025-01-12@ TBW 23-20P 3.0u51.5
2025-01-05@ DALW 23-19W +-7.0u43.5
2024-12-29vs ATLW 30-24W +3.5o46.5

Key Insights

  • Bears win third downs on defense. Chicago’s third-down stop rate is 70.0% (best percentile) on a 40-play sample, which can stall long Commanders drives.

  • Explosive runs can beat Chicago. The Bears allow explosive runs at a 6.8% clip (poor percentile). That invites QB keeps and RB cutbacks if Washington’s backs suit up.

  • Chicago’s scoring pops on big plays. Big-play TD rate is 31.3% on 16 big plays (small sample). The Bears don’t need 12-play marches to score.

  • Bears offense tilts under center. Chicago lines up under center 59.0% (high percentile). That sets up play-action shots to isolate corners.

  • Injury-driven volatility. Washington’s offense changes a lot if Daniels or McLaurin sit. Chicago’s run game and protection change if Swift or LT Darnell Wright can’t go.

Betting Insights

 

  • Spread anchor: Commanders -4.5 at -106. Washington gets the home bump, while Chicago’s run-D weakness raises the ceiling for QB/RB rushing if the Qs play.

  • Total anchor: 50.0 (Over -101 / Under -115). Quarterback health is the swing. Over leans if Daniels and key WRs are active; Under has value if news breaks the other way.

  • Commanders team total: 27.5 (Over -111 / Under -109). Bears allow explosive runs; Washington’s red-zone profile could push four TDs if the offense is intact.

  • Bears team total: 22.5 (Over -122 / Under +100). Chicago’s big-play TD rate keeps the Over live, but juice is heavy on 22.5 Over.

  • Anytime TD market shows paths: Swift -101 (Q), Croskey-Merritt -101 (Q), Jayden Daniels +148 (Q), Rome Odunze +172. Q-tags mean news matters; price risk is baked in.

 

Final Summary

Washington is favored by a field goal plus a hook for a reason. The Commanders can punish Chicago’s run defense with QB keepers and a rotating backfield, if the health report cooperates. Their home field also matters in prime time.

Chicago isn’t toothless. The Bears’ defense wins third downs, and the offense can score in chunks. That combo can keep them inside the number if Williams hits two or three explosives.

Our numbers anchor at Commanders -4.5 and total 50.0. Bettors should watch the inactives. If Daniels and McLaurin are in, Washington’s offense lifts. If they’re out or limited, variance tilts to Chicago and to an Under lean.

Play the prices, not the helmets. The juice on several markets is real. Tie any bet to the final injury report and be ready to pivot.

Statistical Battle Boards

Viewing: WSH Offense vs CHI Defense
Offense team logoOffense
Defense team logoDefense
StatisticOffenseRankDefenseRankAdvantage
Total Points134#8117#13WSH advantage
Total Points Per Game26.8#829.3#28WSH advantage
Total Touchdowns15#914#21WSH advantage
Passing Touchdowns7#2210#25WSH advantage
Rushing Touchdowns7#44#12WSH advantage
Other Touchdowns1#100#12WSH advantage
Total Kicking Points40#1129#26WSH advantage
Total Two Point Conversions2#22#3WSH advantage
Kick Extra Points13#1011#18WSH advantage
Offense team logoOffense
Defense team logoDefense
StatisticOffenseRankDefenseRankAdvantage
Net Passing Yards963#20860#28WSH advantage
Net Passing Yards Per Game193#23215#16CHI advantage
Passer Rating95.3#1799.5#12CHI advantage
Passing Attempts146#24114#2CHI advantage
Completions89#2784#31WSH advantage
Completion Percentage61#2973.7#31WSH advantage
Passing 1st downs45#2740#4CHI advantage
Passing 1st Down %46.9#2950.6#8CHI advantage
Longest Pass56#1464#10CHI advantage
Passing Fumbles Lost0#250#31WSH advantage
Receiving Targets134#25112#31WSH advantage
Receptions89#2784#2CHI advantage
Receiving Yards After Catch450#26442#7CHI advantage
YAC Average5.1#135.3#22WSH advantage
Offense team logoOffense
Defense team logoDefense
StatisticOffenseRankDefenseRankAdvantage
Rushing Yards782#1658#24WSH advantage
Rushing Yards Per Game156#1164#2WSH advantage
Rushing Attempts133#13107#5CHI advantage
Yards Per Rush Attempt5.9#16.2#1🏈
Rushing 1st downs38#632#17WSH advantage
20+ Yard Rushing Plays6#16#2WSH advantage
Long Rushing60#864#7CHI advantage
Rushing Fumbles6#16#2WSH advantage
Rushing Fumbles Lost2#52#4CHI advantage