NFLGame PreviewsCLE VS PIT Preview Week6 12-Oct-2025

Game Preview of Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers. Week 6 of 2025 NFL Season

CLE logo

CLE

1-4-0
@
12OCT25
01:00pm
PIT logo

PIT

3-1-0
Acrisure Stadium

Game Preview

The Browns visit the Steelers at Acrisure Stadium on Sunday, 1:00 PM ET. It is a classic AFC North fight. The market leans to Pittsburgh by about six with a low total in the high 30s.

 

Cleveland starts rookie Dillon Gabriel with Deshaun Watson out. That raises the swing factor on every passing down. The Browns’ defence can still change games. Their pass rush converts pressure to sacks at a top-tier rate. If Myles Garrett is active, that is a problem for Pittsburgh’s protection.

 

The Steelers bring teeth on defence too. They create turnovers at a top-5 clip and finish pressures. That is a tough draw for a rookie on the road. Offensively, Aaron Rodgers guides a scheme that still finds chunk plays even if the deep ball rate is modest. If Pittsburgh’s questionable receivers and corners suit up, their ceiling rises.

 

Given the injuries, this profiles like a field position game. Third down wins, short fields from turnovers, and a couple of explosive plays should decide it.

Current Season Form

CLE logo

CLE

Away
Record:1-4-0
ATS:2-3-0
O/U:2-3-0
PIT logo

PIT

Home
Record:3-1-0
ATS:2-2-0
O/U:3-1-0

Head-to-Head Summary

Record:
2-3Winner logo
ATS:2-3-0
O/U:3-2-0

Past Results

DateOpponentResultATSO/U
2025-09-28vs MINW 24-21W +-2.5o41.5
2025-09-21@ NEW 21-14W +-1.5u44.5
2025-09-14vs SEAL 17-31L 3.5o40.5
2025-09-07@ NYJW 34-32W +-3.0o37.5
2025-01-11@ BALL 14-28L 9.5u44.5
2025-01-04vs CINL 17-19L -2.5u48.5
2024-12-25vs KCL 10-29L -3.0u43.5
2024-12-21@ BALL 17-34L 7.0o44.5
2024-12-15@ PHIL 13-27L 5.5u43.0
2024-12-08vs CLEW 27-14W +6.0u43.0

Key Insights

 

  • Pittsburgh’s havoc rate is elite: The Steelers’ Turnover Generation Rate is 3.7% (97th percentile), which punishes mistakes from a young QB.

  • Browns can flip scripts with rush: Cleveland’s Sack Rate Generated is 9.2% (97th), and their Pressure-to-Sack is also top tier, stressing a PIT line that ranks middling in sacks allowed.

  • Explosives differ by team identity: Pittsburgh’s Scheme Explosive Rate is 4.8% (81st), while Cleveland’s Explosive Pass Rate is 5.0% (12th), suggesting shorter, controlled Browns drives.

  • Run fits matter: Pittsburgh’s defence has a weakness with Explosive Runs Allowed 7.9%, giving Cleveland a path on the ground if blocking holds up.

  • Goal-line leverage: Steelers’ Goal-Line Stuff Rate 69.2% (91st) challenges Cleveland’s red zone efficiency (66.7% TD rate) when drives get inside the 10.

  • Availability swings plans: Multiple key players are Questionable on both sides, tying injuries directly to pass rush, coverage, and target share.

 

Betting Insights

  • Spread angle: Steelers -5.5 (-114) vs Browns +5.5 (-101). Off the key numbers, so late-game variance is higher.

  • Totals anchor: 38.5 with Over -105 / Under -115. Market leans to a grind with juice shaded to the Under.

  • QB yardage markets: Dillon Gabriel 182.5Under -119 / Over -120. Aaron Rodgers 209.5Over -119 / Under -120.

  • Receiver yardage: DK Metcalf 53.5Over -119 / Under -120. David Njoku 34.5Over -122 / Under -116 (volatility if inactive).

  • Anytime TDs: Quinshon Judkins +118 gives you plus money on Cleveland’s primary goal-line option. (Do not play Jaylen Warren; he is listed Out.)

Prices include juice. Prop outcomes remain volatile with so many players listed Questionable. Re-check inactives before kickoff.

Final Summary

Pittsburgh’s defence is built to squeeze rookie quarterbacks. The turnover rate and sack conversion show up weekly. That pushes this matchup toward a Steelers script if they win early downs and force Gabriel into third-and-long.

Cleveland’s best counter is a steady run plan and pass rush fireworks. If the Browns keep the sticks moving with Judkins and protect on the edges, they can shorten the game and find red zone chances. Health for Garrett, Ward, and the Browns’ center room is pivotal.

The board paints a low-total, one-score type with Steelers -5.5 and 38.5 on the total. Expect a tight field position battle with a few splash plays deciding the cover. Manage exposure, respect the juice at these numbers, and build around confirmed actives ninety minutes before kick.

Statistical Battle Boards

Viewing: PIT Offense vs CLE Defense
Offense team logoOffense
Defense team logoDefense
StatisticOffenseRankDefenseRankAdvantage
Total Points96#25123#11CLE advantage
Total Points Per Game24#1724.6#21PIT advantage
Total Touchdowns11#1915#23PIT advantage
Passing Touchdowns8#1510#24PIT advantage
Rushing Touchdowns3#213#9CLE advantage
Other Touchdowns0#212#32PIT advantage
Total Kicking Points28#2933#22CLE advantage
Total Two Point Conversions1#100#22PIT advantage
Kick Extra Points10#2115#4CLE advantage
Offense team logoOffense
Defense team logoDefense
StatisticOffenseRankDefenseRankAdvantage
Net Passing Yards734#32861#26CLE advantage
Net Passing Yards Per Game184#27172#28PIT advantage
Passer Rating103#10104#7CLE advantage
Passing Attempts110#32139#7CLE advantage
Completions76#3293#25CLE advantage
Completion Percentage69.1#1166.9#17PIT advantage
Passing 1st downs31#3247#9CLE advantage
Passing 1st Down %45.6#3262.7#27CLE advantage
Longest Pass80#441#28PIT advantage
Passing Fumbles Lost0#290#28CLE advantage
Receiving Targets104#32135#26CLE advantage
Receptions76#3293#8CLE advantage
Receiving Yards After Catch573#9465#8CLE advantage
YAC Average7.5#15#16PIT advantage
Offense team logoOffense
Defense team logoDefense
StatisticOffenseRankDefenseRankAdvantage
Rushing Yards320#31378#2CLE advantage
Rushing Yards Per Game80#3175.6#32PIT advantage
Rushing Attempts96#31127#16CLE advantage
Yards Per Rush Attempt3.3#303#32PIT advantage
Rushing 1st downs26#2519#2CLE advantage
20+ Yard Rushing Plays0#302#21CLE advantage
Long Rushing15#3124#27CLE advantage
Rushing Fumbles0#302#21CLE advantage
Rushing Fumbles Lost0#292#6CLE advantage