• Pittsburgh’s havoc rate is elite: The Steelers’ Turnover Generation Rate is 3.7% (97th percentile), which punishes mistakes from a young QB.

• Browns can flip scripts with rush: Cleveland’s Sack Rate Generated is 9.2% (97th), and their Pressure-to-Sack is also top tier, stressing a PIT line that ranks middling in sacks allowed.

• Explosives differ by team identity: Pittsburgh’s Scheme Explosive Rate is 4.8% (81st), while Cleveland’s Explosive Pass Rate is 5.0% (12th), suggesting shorter, controlled Browns drives.

• Run fits matter: Pittsburgh’s defence has a weakness with Explosive Runs Allowed 7.9%, giving Cleveland a path on the ground if blocking holds up.

• Goal-line leverage: Steelers’ Goal-Line Stuff Rate 69.2% (91st) challenges Cleveland’s red zone efficiency (66.7% TD rate) when drives get inside the 10.

• Availability swings plans: Multiple key players are Questionable on both sides, tying injuries directly to pass rush, coverage, and target share.

• Spread angle: Steelers -5.5 (-114) vs Browns +5.5 (-101). Off the key numbers, so late-game variance is higher.

• Totals anchor: 38.5 with Over -105 / Under -115. Market leans to a grind with juice shaded to the Under.

• QB yardage markets: Dillon Gabriel 182.5 — Under -119 / Over -120. Aaron Rodgers 209.5 — Over -119 / Under -120.

• Receiver yardage: DK Metcalf 53.5 — Over -119 / Under -120. David Njoku 34.5 — Over -122 / Under -116 (volatility if inactive).

• Anytime TDs: Quinshon Judkins +118 gives you plus money on Cleveland’s primary goal-line option. (Do not play Jaylen Warren; he is listed Out.)

Prices include juice. Prop outcomes remain volatile with so many players listed Questionable. Re-check inactives before kickoff.

Pittsburgh’s defence is built to squeeze rookie quarterbacks. The turnover rate and sack conversion show up weekly. That pushes this matchup toward a Steelers script if they win early downs and force Gabriel into third-and-long.

Cleveland’s best counter is a steady run plan and pass rush fireworks. If the Browns keep the sticks moving with Judkins and protect on the edges, they can shorten the game and find red zone chances. Health for Garrett, Ward, and the Browns’ center room is pivotal.

The board paints a low-total, one-score type with Steelers -5.5 and 38.5 on the total. Expect a tight field position battle with a few splash plays deciding the cover. Manage exposure, respect the juice at these numbers, and build around confirmed actives ninety minutes before kick.