• Dallas protects the passer at a high rate (3.4% sack rate allowed, 86th percentile). Carolina’s rush has not converted pressure to sacks often (3.2% sack rate generated, 12th). That favors Dak’s timing throws.

• The Cowboys’ defense leaks explosive runs (8.3% allowed, 3rd percentile). The Panthers’ run game sits around league average for explosives (4.5%). Carolina can stay in phase with early-down runs.

• Dallas converts in the red zone (68.4% TD rate, 73rd percentile). Carolina’s defense is mid-pack in red zone TDs allowed (62.5%). Short fields could decide this.

• Dallas grades well on third-down offense (45.0%, 81st percentile), but Carolina’s defense ranks 67th percentile at getting third-down stops. That is a true strength-on-strength clash.

• Carolina’s offensive line health is a lever. Multiple starters are Questionable. If they play, it supports Young’s efficiency and reduces negative plays.

• Several Panthers pass catchers are Questionable, including Tetairoa McMillan and Xavier Legette. Availability will shape the target tree and how Carolina attacks Dallas’ thin secondary.

• Anchor spread: Cowboys -3.0 at -123. If you want plus money for the hook, -3.5 is +112, but you lose the push safety.

• Anchor total: 48.5 with Over -125 and Under -115. Dallas finishes drives well, while Carolina can move it on the ground. Juice sits on the Over.

• Bryce Young Over 220.5 passing yards (-120): Dallas ranks near the bottom in third-down stops and turnover creation, a friendly environment for yardage.

• Jake Ferguson Over 44.5 receiving yards (-118): Dallas’ third-down success points to chain-moving targets. If Lamb is limited, Ferguson’s volume can climb.

• Jalen Tolbert Over 30.5 receiving yards (-120) — volatility: Lamb Questionable; Dallas’ deep-pass profile (81st percentile) helps Tolbert’s splash plays.

• Javonte Williams Anytime TD (-164): Dallas’ 68.4% red zone TD rate backs their goal-line usage. Price is heavy juice, so manage stake size.

• Tetairoa McMillan Anytime TD (+142) — volatility: Only if active; role fits a red-zone shot in a higher-total game.

Expect a clean Cowboys pass script against a Panthers rush that rarely finishes plays with sacks. That sets up Dallas to hit explosives when protection holds. Red zone efficiency favors the Cowboys.

Carolina can answer by leaning on the ground game and quick throws. Dallas’ defense has struggled against explosive runs and long drives. If Carolina’s line gets healthier, Bryce Young can stack completions and keep the chains moving.

Player health will steer props. Monitor CeeDee Lamb on the Dallas side. For Carolina, watch Tetairoa McMillan, Xavier Legette, and the offensive line. Questionable tags add variance, which should shape bet sizing.

The market frames this as a one-score game with a total near 48.5. Dallas owns the red zone edge, while Carolina’s best path is run game stability and third-down stops. Price your positions with the juice in mind and be ready to adjust if inactives change the matchup.