NFLGame PreviewsDAL VS NYJ Preview Week5 05-Oct-2025

Game Preview of Dallas Cowboys @ New York Jets. Week 5 of 2025 NFL Season

DAL logo

DAL

1-3-0
@
05OCT25
01:00pm
NYJ logo

NYJ

0-4-0
MetLife Stadium

Game Preview

The Dallas Cowboys visit the New York Jets at MetLife Stadium on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET. The market sits Dallas -3 (-106) with a total at 47.0 (Over -123, Under -109).

This matchup rides on two levers: the Jets’ run game and Dallas’ passing efficiency. New York leads the league in explosive rush rate at 10.9%. Explosive plays are gains of 10-plus yards on the ground and 15-plus through the air. Dallas answers with a strong deep-ball profile at 5.8% explosive rate on deep throws.

Injuries shape both sides. The Cowboys are without CeeDee Lamb and have key linemen listed as questionable. The Jets list QB Justin Fields as questionable with a concussion. Their RB room is thin behind Breece Hall, and the offensive line has multiple absences.

Coaching pressure is real for New York, but the data points to on-field matchups. If the Jets run game wins early downs, they can keep Dallas off the field. If Dak Prescott keeps chains moving, Dallas can lean into long drives and stress a Jets secondary with several players on the report.

Current Season Form

DAL logo

DAL

Away
Record:1-3-0
ATS:2-2-0
O/U:2-2-0
NYJ logo

NYJ

Home
Record:0-4-0
ATS:2-2-0
O/U:3-1-0

Head-to-Head Summary

Record:
2-3Winner logo
ATS:3-1-1
O/U:3-2-0

Past Results

DateOpponentResultATSO/U
2025-09-29@ MIAL 21-27L 2.5o44.5
2025-09-21@ TBL 27-29L 6.5o43.5
2025-09-14vs BUFL 10-30L -6.0u47.5
2025-09-07vs PITL 32-34L -3.0o37.5
2025-01-05vs MIAW 32-20W +1.5o39.5
2024-12-29@ BUFL 14-40L 10.0o44.5
2024-12-22vs LARL 9-19L -3.0u47.0
2024-12-15@ JAXW 32-25W +-3.5o41.5
2024-12-08@ MIAL 26-32L 6.5o45.0
2024-12-01vs SEAL 21-26L 1.0o41.5

Key Insights

 

  • Jets can pop runs: New York owns a 10.9% explosive run rate (100th percentile). That is their clearest path to steady offense.

  • Dallas can still hit shot plays: Cowboys post a 5.8% deep-pass explosive rate (81st percentile). The Jets allow explosive passes at 12.0% raw, though personnel is banged up.

  • Dak sustains drives: Dallas ranks 93.3% in long-drive efficiency (91st percentile), which points to patience if the deep ball stalls. Small sample note: these are early-season drive counts.

  • Money downs are a hinge: Cowboys convert 44.7% on third down (88th). Their defense stops only 41.8% on third down (3rd percentile), so the Jets’ 31.1% conversion weakness could get a lift.

  • Pass rush vs scramble lanes: Dallas converts pressures to sacks at only 2.9% (16th percentile). If Fields plays, that lighter finish rate can fuel QB scrambles.

  • Injury tie-ins: With Lamb Out, Dallas target share tilts to tight ends and secondary WRs. The Jets’ RB room behind Hall is thin, which can concentrate carries if game script allows.

 

Betting Insights

  • Anchor spread: Cowboys -3.0 (-106). Short road favorite in a one-score profile.

  • Anchor total: 47.0 (Over -123, Under -109). The Over is juiced, but inactives can swing this.

  • Moneyline check: Cowboys -135 vs Jets +118. Pricing reflects slight Dallas edge.

  • Cowboys team total: Over 24.0 (-123). Matches Dallas’ long-drive strength and Jets’ banged-up secondary.

  • Jets team total: Over 23.0 (-116). Correlates with New York’s No. 1 explosive rush rate.

  • Player props to monitor:

    • Breece Hall Over 66.5 rush yds (-122) aligns with that 10.9% explosive run rate.

    • Justin Fields Over 47.5 rush yds (-118) if active, given Dallas’ low pressure-to-sack finish (2.9%).

    • Garrett Wilson Over 64.5 rec yds (-118) vs Dallas’ 8.7% explosive passes allowed.

    • Jake Ferguson Over 43.5 rec yds (-118) with Lamb Out and target consolidation.

Always check inactives. Questionable tags on both offensive lines and in both secondaries raise variance. Manage juice on overs that already carry -120 or worse.

Final Summary

The numbers point to a simple script. The Jets want to run. Dallas wants to string together long drives and take selective shots.

New York’s edge is on the ground with Breece Hall. If Fields plays, his legs add another layer. Dallas counters with Dak’s efficiency and a pass game that can still find chunk gains, even without CeeDee Lamb.

Injuries make this volatile. The Cowboys’ offensive line health matters for any Dak or team-total angles. The Jets’ QB status and DB availability can swing both side and total.

Bottom line: the market has this right as a tight, high-40s total. If the Jets rip explosives on the ground, they can trade scores. If Dallas owns third down again, the visitors justify the -3.

Statistical Battle Boards

Viewing: NYJ Offense vs DAL Defense
Offense team logoOffense
Defense team logoDefense
StatisticOffenseRankDefenseRankAdvantage
Total Points90#19132#2DAL advantage
Total Points Per Game22.5#1933#31NYJ advantage
Total Touchdowns10#1816#32NYJ advantage
Passing Touchdowns5#2510#32NYJ advantage
Rushing Touchdowns4#146#30NYJ advantage
Other Touchdowns1#60#18NYJ advantage
Total Kicking Points28#2136#10DAL advantage
Total Two Point Conversions1#70#22NYJ advantage
Kick Extra Points7#2315#1DAL advantage
Offense team logoOffense
Defense team logoDefense
StatisticOffenseRankDefenseRankAdvantage
Net Passing Yards641#291189#1DAL advantage
Net Passing Yards Per Game160#29297#1DAL advantage
Passer Rating98#11123#2DAL advantage
Passing Attempts107#30135#22DAL advantage
Completions72#2899#7DAL advantage
Completion Percentage67.3#1373.3#30NYJ advantage
Passing 1st downs39#2348#24NYJ advantage
Passing 1st Down %50#2751.6#10DAL advantage
Longest Pass33#3165#8DAL advantage
Passing Fumbles Lost2#51#8NYJ advantage
Receiving Targets104#30124#16DAL advantage
Receptions72#2899#26DAL advantage
Receiving Yards After Catch291#31606#31🏈
YAC Average4.0#296.1#29🏈
Offense team logoOffense
Defense team logoDefense
StatisticOffenseRankDefenseRankAdvantage
Rushing Yards578#3493#20NYJ advantage
Rushing Yards Per Game144#3123#13NYJ advantage
Rushing Attempts111#13123#29NYJ advantage
Yards Per Rush Attempt5.2#34#19NYJ advantage
Rushing 1st downs32#338#32NYJ advantage
20+ Yard Rushing Plays3#113#8DAL advantage
Long Rushing43#1325#23NYJ advantage
Rushing Fumbles3#113#8DAL advantage
Rushing Fumbles Lost2#20#20NYJ advantage