• Jets can pop runs: New York owns a 10.9% explosive run rate (100th percentile). That is their clearest path to steady offense.

• Dallas can still hit shot plays: Cowboys post a 5.8% deep-pass explosive rate (81st percentile). The Jets allow explosive passes at 12.0% raw, though personnel is banged up.

• Dak sustains drives: Dallas ranks 93.3% in long-drive efficiency (91st percentile), which points to patience if the deep ball stalls. Small sample note: these are early-season drive counts.

• Money downs are a hinge: Cowboys convert 44.7% on third down (88th). Their defense stops only 41.8% on third down (3rd percentile), so the Jets’ 31.1% conversion weakness could get a lift.

• Pass rush vs scramble lanes: Dallas converts pressures to sacks at only 2.9% (16th percentile). If Fields plays, that lighter finish rate can fuel QB scrambles.

• Injury tie-ins: With Lamb Out, Dallas target share tilts to tight ends and secondary WRs. The Jets’ RB room behind Hall is thin, which can concentrate carries if game script allows.

• Anchor spread: Cowboys -3.0 (-106). Short road favorite in a one-score profile.

• Anchor total: 47.0 (Over -123, Under -109). The Over is juiced, but inactives can swing this.

• Moneyline check: Cowboys -135 vs Jets +118. Pricing reflects slight Dallas edge.

• Cowboys team total: Over 24.0 (-123). Matches Dallas’ long-drive strength and Jets’ banged-up secondary.

• Jets team total: Over 23.0 (-116). Correlates with New York’s No. 1 explosive rush rate.

• Player props to monitor:

  • Breece Hall Over 66.5 rush yds (-122) aligns with that 10.9% explosive run rate.

  • Justin Fields Over 47.5 rush yds (-118) if active, given Dallas’ low pressure-to-sack finish (2.9%).

  • Garrett Wilson Over 64.5 rec yds (-118) vs Dallas’ 8.7% explosive passes allowed.

  • Jake Ferguson Over 43.5 rec yds (-118) with Lamb Out and target consolidation.

Always check inactives. Questionable tags on both offensive lines and in both secondaries raise variance. Manage juice on overs that already carry -120 or worse.

The numbers point to a simple script. The Jets want to run. Dallas wants to string together long drives and take selective shots.

New York’s edge is on the ground with Breece Hall. If Fields plays, his legs add another layer. Dallas counters with Dak’s efficiency and a pass game that can still find chunk gains, even without CeeDee Lamb.

Injuries make this volatile. The Cowboys’ offensive line health matters for any Dak or team-total angles. The Jets’ QB status and DB availability can swing both side and total.

Bottom line: the market has this right as a tight, high-40s total. If the Jets rip explosives on the ground, they can trade scores. If Dallas owns third down again, the visitors justify the -3.