• Detroit’s defense is thin at corner and safety. With Arnold out and multiple DBs questionable, the Lions face Mahomes while allowing explosive passes 8.4% of the time.

• Chiefs prefer shotgun and protect the QB. KC uses shotgun on 67.0% of snaps (97th percentile) and allows sacks on only 3.7% of dropbacks.

• Lions can score quickly. Detroit’s quick-strike rate sits at 5.9% (94th percentile), showing they can flip the field in a few plays.

• Pass-rush vs pass-pro is a swing factor. Detroit generates sacks at 8.1% (78th percentile) but meets a KC line that limits sacks; whichever unit wins likely controls pace.

• Red zone efficiency favors points. Both teams grade well: Lions red-zone TD rate 69.2% (80th pct); Chiefs 68.4% (73rd pct).

• Small-sample flags. Some strengths rely on limited snaps, like Detroit’s third-and-short defense (14 plays). Treat those with caution.

• Spread anchor: Chiefs -3.0 (-104). Field-goal game by the number. KC’s deep-pass edge vs a thin DET secondary fits this side, but a late backdoor is live.

• Total anchor: 50.5 with Over -161 / Under +112. Price signals toward points, yet juice is heavy; consider bankroll risk at this vig.

• Mahomes Over 259.5 pass yds (-120): Detroit allows explosive passes 8.4% and is down multiple DBs; volume plus chunks.

• Goff Over 235.5 pass yds (-118): KC also allows explosive passes 8.4%; Detroit’s scheme shows 4.7% scheme-based explosives.

• Kelce Over 42.5 rec yds (-120): Middle-of-field usage vs a thinned secondary offers a steady path.

• Worthy Over 60.5 rec yds (-118) — if active: KC’s deep rate 5.3% meets DET’s leak; note volatility with a Questionable tag.

• Gibbs Anytime TD (-154): Pricey, but Lions red-zone TD rate 69.2% supports touches near the stripe.

This matchup sets up for passing. The Chiefs protect, throw often from shotgun, and face a Lions secondary missing key pieces. That leans toward Mahomes moving the ball and chasing milestones.

Detroit will answer. The Lions create quick scores and can run explosively. If Taylor Decker plays, that steadies protection for Goff. If Amon-Ra St. Brown is limited, others must win, but Detroit’s structure still produces chunk plays.

The line around Chiefs -3.0 reflects a close game. The total near 51 hints at long drives that end in touchdowns, not field goals. With multiple Questionable tags at wideout for KC and across Detroit’s secondary, late news matters.

Bottom line: Kansas City has the cleaner path through the air. Detroit’s offense keeps it tight with quick strikes and red-zone finishing. Price your bets with the juice in mind, and watch inactives for St. Brown, Worthy, Brown, Decker, and the Lions’ DBs before locking props.