• Raiders can hit explosives: Las Vegas owns a 24.3% explosive pass rate (plays of 15+; 100th percentile, sample 37). That stresses any defense, especially one missing pieces.

• Money-down edge for LV: The Raiders post a 71.4% third-down stop rate (97th percentile, sample 14), which can stall a Washington offense dealing with QB and OL questions.

• Washington protection is thin: Cosmi out and Niang on IR, while Daniels’ injury is flagged to impact sack rate allowed. That raises negative-play risk, even if Mariota starts.

• Raiders pass rush is competent, not elite: 8.0% sack rate generated (62nd percentile, sample 50). It’s enough to capitalize if Washington’s timing slips.

• Las Vegas plays for explosives by design: 16.7% scheme explosive rate (100th percentile, sample 30) plus 10.8% deep-pass explosive rate (94th percentile, sample 37) suggests shot plays are baked in.

• Sustain can be an issue for LV: 33.3% long-drive efficiency (3rd percentile, small sample 3). If Washington keeps a lid on explosives, the Raiders may bog down.

• Spread: Commanders -4.0 (+106) home edge priced in, but QB/OL volatility for WSH is real; plus money at -4 shows market uncertainty.

• Total: 47.0 (Over +114 / Under -154) heavy juice to the Under signals skepticism about sustained scoring, especially with Washington injuries.

• Raiders team total 20.0 (Over -123 / Under -115): Tied to LV’s 24.3% explosive pass rate; if they land two shots, 20 is reachable.

• Ashton Jeanty over 55.5 rush yards (-119): Washington’s front is thinner (Wise IR); modest juice for a lead back.

• Jakobi Meyers over 63.5 receiving yards (-120): Fits LV deep/ explosive profile; one long catch can do half the work.

• Jacory Croskey-Merritt anytime TD (-101): Near even money on Washington’s likely lead back with red-zone work.
  Note: Brock Bowers over 56.5 (-120) is a lean if active, but status is Questionable, size down or wait for inactives.

This game likely turns on protection and explosives. Washington’s offense has moving parts at QB and on the line. That creates variance. If the Commanders keep the pocket clean, they can lean on a balanced plan and finish drives.

Las Vegas brings clear big-play juice. The Raiders’ passing profile points to shot plays and quick strikes. But they haven’t shown a steady long-drive gear. If Washington limits explosives, the Raiders may settle for punts and long field goals.

Market numbers line up with that script: Commanders -4.0 (+106) and a total at 47.0 with juice toward the Under. That Under lean reflects injury risk and travel fatigue on the Raiders’ side.

Bottom line: Washington’s path is cleaner if the QB room holds up. Las Vegas needs a couple of haymakers downfield. Bet sizing should respect the uncertainty around Daniels and several Questionable tags.