• Bills vertical threat vs Miami coverage depth: Buffalo’s deep-pass explosive rate (10.9%; 97th pct) meets a Dolphins secondary missing multiple CBs, increasing one-on-one shots outside.

• Miami can test the edges on the ground: Dolphins’ explosive run rate is elite (16.7%; small sample), and Buffalo have struggled with explosive runs allowed (14.3%).

• Protection tilt favours Buffalo: Bills’ sack rate allowed (2.1%; 91st pct) vs Miami’s pressure-to-sack conversion (3.3%; 30th pct) gives Allen time to progress and scramble.

• Middle-of-field stress without Taron Johnson: With Buffalo’s slot corner Out, seam and option routes for Miami’s speed can create YAC if Hill is active.

• Third-down texture: Buffalo convert at 46.7% (15-play sample), while Miami’s third-down stop rate sits at 53.3% allowed (38th pct) — Bills may extend series.

• Red-zone swing points: Miami’s red-zone TD rate shows 100% (95th pct; tiny sample), while Buffalo’s defence lists several starters Q/Out — short-field calls could be aggressive.

• Anchor total 48.5: Over -128 vs Under -103. Bills’ explosive pass rate (15.2%; 91st pct) lifts ceiling, but note juice on the Over and injury volatility on both sides.

• Anchor spread (alt) Bills -3.5 (-526): Heavy juice but a smaller number early in the game script if you prefer laying fewer points.

• Context spread Bills -12.5 (+100): Market reflects a wide gap; consider variance from Miami’s explosive run potential and Bills’ defensive absences.

• Josh Allen Over 1.5 Pass TDs (-143): Data edge via deep-ball (97th pct) and Miami’s thin CB room; price reflects reduced uncertainty.

• De’Von Achane Over 54.5 Rush Yds (-118): Matches Miami’s top trait vs Buffalo’s run-explosive weakness; actionable only if active.

• Tua Tagovailoa Over 1.5 Pass TDs (+110): Plus-money tied to Bills injuries (DT/slot CB) and Miami’s red-zone efficiency (tiny sample).

Buffalo’s identity is clear: protect Allen, push the ball, and apply pressure with pace. The numbers back a vertical plan, and Miami’s injuries at corner could leave space downfield. If the Bills stay clean in protection, explosives will follow.

Miami’s best path is balance with bursts. A healthy Achane adds speed that stresses a Bills front missing Ed Oliver. Sustained runs can set up play-action and lighten third downs for Tua.

Injuries are the wild card. Tyreek Hill’s status changes Miami’s ceiling. Buffalo’s missing defenders shift the middle of the field. Check inactives before kick-off and weigh volatility when choosing props.

Overall, Buffalo hold the structural edges, but Miami’s speed can flip drives fast. Expect Buffalo to control tempo with Allen, while the Dolphins hunt chunk plays on the ground and off quick RPO looks. Bet responsibly; the prices reflect both the Bills’ advantages and the uncertainty around who actually suits up.