• Red-zone mismatch: Eagles offence leads the league tier with a 92.3% TD rate inside the 20. Giants’ defence has allowed TDs on 57.1% of red-zone trips.

• Third-down tilt: Giants convert 32.3% on third down, while the Eagles’ defence stops opponents on 61.5% of third downs. That tilts possession time to Philadelphia.

• Explosives profile: Giants’ defence is strong at limiting explosive passes (5.0% “Expl Pass Allowed,” 91st pct). Philadelphia’s explosive pass rate is middling (6.5%, 38th pct). Expect PHI to lean on quick game and the run.

• Pass rush vs protection: Philadelphia allows sacks at 9.2% with multiple OL questionables. New York’s pressure-to-sack sits 5.0% (average), but interior push matters if Dexter Lawrence (Q) suits up.

• Skill depth vs injuries: New York’s passing ceiling drops without Malik Nabers (IR). If Darius Slayton (Q) is limited, NYG likely funnels targets short to Wan’Dale Robinson and TEs.

• Tempo lever: Eagles’ no-huddle 18.4% (94th pct) can stress a Giants defence that prefers to keep the lid on explosive plays.

• Spread (anchor): Eagles -7.5 (-111). Alt reference: -7.0 (-122) if you want the key number protection.

• Total (anchor): Under 41.5 (-139) or Under 42.0 (-137) if you prefer the extra hook. Giants’ red-zone 36.8% and third-down 32.3% support a lower NYG output.

• Giants Team Total: Under 16.5 (-133) aligns with NYG’s drive-sustaining issues and thin WR room.

• Jaxson Dart Passing Yards: Under 175.5 (-119). Rookie QB, limited weapons, and poor third-down rate.

• Jalen Hurts Rushing Yards: Over 39.5 (-115). Banged-up OL plus PHI tempo creates scramble/design-run chances.

• Saquon Barkley Receiving Yards: Over 15.5 (-118) if active. Quick checkdowns fit the matchup; volatility note: Questionable.

Prices listed come directly from the available markets. Always consider juice and your stake sizing.

Philadelphia owns clear edges where games are decided: third down and the red zone. That matters even more on a short week. The Eagles’ offensive line injuries are a real risk, but their tempo and quarterback run game can soften that blow.

New York’s defence is built to prevent deep shots, which likely pushes the Eagles toward the run and short passing. Without Malik Nabers, the Giants need long drives to keep up, and their season-to-date numbers suggest that will be hard to repeat across four quarters.

Our read matches the current market. Philadelphia is favoured by more than a touchdown for a reason, and the low total reflects a Giants offence still searching for rhythm. If Barkley is active, expect Philadelphia to feed him touches in his return, with usage tilted to early downs and the red zone.

Bottom line: Eagles have the cleaner path. The matchup leans to Philadelphia by a score or more, with a modest game total unless New York suddenly finds answers on third down and in the red zone.