• Patriots rush can tilt the game. New England ranks high in sack rate generated at 10.5% (94th percentile; sample 38), while Pittsburgh’s offense allows sacks at 8.6% (22nd percentile; sample 58).

• Steelers can strike vs a thin secondary. Pittsburgh’s explosive pass rate is 12.5% (81st percentile; sample 56). New England has allowed explosive passes at 24.3% (sample 37, small early sample).

• Pittsburgh defense is vulnerable to chunks. The Steelers allow explosive runs at 9.8% (6th percentile; sample 61) and explosive passes at 12.5% (20th percentile; sample 48).

• Injuries matter on the back end. Joey Porter Jr. and DeShon Elliott are Out for Pittsburgh, raising stress on a unit already giving up explosives.

• Patriots offense still finding consistency. Third-down conversion sits at 28.6% (9th percentile; sample 14). Expect more tempo (no-huddle 13.3%, 91st percentile) to help Maye.

• Small-sample flags. Some New England defensive splits (explosive passes allowed, goal-line results) carry limited snaps. Treat them as early clues.

• Spread: Steelers -3.0 (-101) is the closest key number on the board. Near even juice suggests modest confidence on the road favorite.

• Total: 44.0 with Over -122 / Under -112. Heavy Over juice despite both teams having third-down issues, so pace and explosives likely drive this.

• Steelers team total 23.0: Over -115, Under -123. New England’s secondary has leaks, but pressure can stall drives.

• Patriots team total 21.0: Over -122, Under -116. Porter and Elliott out for PIT aid Maye, yet NE’s third-down weakness adds variance.

• Jaylen Warren over 20.5 receiving yards (-116): Fits the checkdown plan against a rush that converts pressures.

• Hunter Henry over 35.5 receiving yards (-118): Steelers have struggled vs explosive passes; Henry works soft spots in zone.

Style clash sits at the heart of this game. New England wins by squeezing the pocket and forcing short throws. Pittsburgh wins by protecting just enough to unlock explosive gains downfield.

Personnel tilts both ways. The Patriots lose a top corner, but the Steelers are down key defenders too. That increases volatility. A single broken tackle or blown protection can decide the day.

The market shows a tight edge to Pittsburgh at -3.0 (-101) with a 44.0 total priced toward the Over. That profile fits a game with bursts around otherwise uneven drives.

As always, manage risk. Questionable tags on playmakers like Stefon Diggs and Rhamondre Stevenson add late news risk. Stake size should match the juice and the injury swings in a close spread game.