• Tampa Bay creates big pass plays (8.4% explosive pass rate, 72nd percentile), while San Francisco allows a high rate of explosive passes (8.7%, 19th percentile).

• The 49ers’ pass protection is elite (2.4% sack rate allowed, 94th percentile), which can offset Tampa Bay’s average pressure-to-sack conversion (5.3%, 44th percentile).

• San Francisco is strong on third down (45.7% conversion, 88th percentile) and on third-and-long (35.7%, 94th percentile), helping sustain drives.

• Tampa Bay is efficient on long drives (93.8%, 89th percentile) and stops short-yardage at the goal line (66.7% stuff rate, 84th percentile), but its red-zone TD defense has struggled (71.4% allowed, 11th percentile).

• Injuries shape the pass game: TB is without Mike Evans, and Chris Godwin is questionable; SF is without Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle, with multiple WRs and DBs questionable. Tie this to volatility on perimeter matchups.

• San Francisco’s pass rush ranks low in pressure-to-sack and sack rate generated (both 3rd percentile), which can give Tampa’s QB time even with OL questions.

• Anchor spread: Buccaneers -3.5 (+114). Plus money to cover the hook at home, tied to TB’s explosive pass edge. Price brings added risk.

• Alternate/key number: Buccaneers -3.0 (-103). Near even-money tax if you prefer protection against a field-goal game.

• Anchor total: 47.0 (Over -116 / Under -110). Both offenses carry efficiency traits; Over backers are paying a bit of juice.

• Emeka Egbuka Over 68.5 receiving yards (-122). Fits TB’s explosive pass and scheme-explosive traits against SF’s leaky deep-pass profile.

• Baker Mayfield Over 240.5 passing yards (-119). SF converts pressure to sacks just 2.3% of the time; cleaner pockets support yardage. Status note: Mayfield QUESTIONABLE.

• Chris Godwin Over 51.5 receiving yards (-119). Volume should rise without Evans. Status note: Godwin QUESTIONABLE, so expect line movement if inactive.

• Christian McCaffrey Over 49.5 receiving yards (-118). SF’s third-down strength and TB’s red-zone issues often funnel targets to CMC.

On paper, Tampa’s passing explosiveness lines up well against a San Francisco defense that hasn’t finished pressures. If Baker Mayfield plays, the Bucs should find chunk gains to Emeka Egbuka and the tight ends, with drives extending into scoring range.

San Francisco can keep pace by keeping Mac Jones clean and using Christian McCaffrey as a receiver. The 49ers have been excellent on third down and on sustained drives. If they finish in the red zone, this tilts toward a shootout around our anchor total.

Given the injuries, expect volatility. Questionable tags on both quarterbacks and multiple pass catchers can swing props and side totals close to kickoff. Price matters: the -3.5 at plus money on Tampa is a higher-variance angle, while -3.0 reduces the sweat.

Our lean: Tampa Bay to cover the small number at home and a game that nudges into the high 40s. Play responsibly, respect the juice, and be ready to adjust if late inactives hit the receiving rooms.