We're having some technical issues.
Please come back later to see the best odds for today's games here.
Please come back later to see the best odds for today's games here.
Match Predictor
Pre-match Prediction
Colorado Rockies 43%Cincinnati Reds 57%
Market LinesRun Line: Cincinnati Reds -0.5Total: O/U 9
↓
Model: Under 9
Model projects 8.5 total runs vs 9 line
Colorado Rockies
All Over 9
37%
11/30
MLB: 48%
Starter
40%
2/5
vs CIN
0%
0/1
Avg Total
8.5
MLB: 8.9
Game Starter (5) Last Starter vs CIN vs CIN (1)
Tomoyuki Sugano #11 · RHP · Age 37
3.42
ERA (2026)
6.6
K/9 (2026)
5
Starts (2026)
10.0
Avg Total (2026)
Last 3:
W SD (Apr 22): 5.2IP, 1ER, 4K
L LAD (Apr 17): 4.0IP, 5ER, 3K
ND @SD (Apr 10): 6.0IP, 2ER, 3K
W SD (Apr 22): 5.2IP, 1ER, 4K
L LAD (Apr 17): 4.0IP, 5ER, 3K
ND @SD (Apr 10): 6.0IP, 2ER, 3K
Bullpen (2026 Season)Average
ERA: 3.90MLB Avg: 3.9510 relievers
⚠
Workload Alert: Allowed 10 runs on 2026-04-23 vs SD. Bullpen arms likely still recovering.
Recent: L 8-10W 4-3W 3-1W 3-0L 2-7
Lineup vs Tomoyuki Sugano (Career)
| Batter | Pos | PA | AVG | OPS | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathaniel Lowe | 1B | 8 | .125 | 0.250 | 0 |
12 batters with no matchup history
Cincinnati Reds
Bullpen ERA 2.45 (elite). Should hold late-inning leads.
All Over 9
45%
13/29
MLB: 48%
Starter
40%
2/5
vs COL
0%
0/1
Avg Total
8.4
MLB: 8.9
Game Starter (5) Last Starter vs COL vs COL (1)
Brandon Williamson #55 · LHP · Age 28
5.40
ERA (2026)
5.4
K/9 (2026)
5
Starts (2026)
6.6
Avg Total (2026)
Last 3:
L @TB (Apr 22): 4.1IP, 5ER, 3K
W @MIN (Apr 17): 5.1IP, 1ER, 2K
ND LAA (Apr 11): 4.0IP, 3ER, 3K
L @TB (Apr 22): 4.1IP, 5ER, 3K
W @MIN (Apr 17): 5.1IP, 1ER, 2K
ND LAA (Apr 11): 4.0IP, 3ER, 3K
Bullpen (2026 Season)Elite
ERA: 2.45MLB Avg: 3.958 relievers
⚠
Workload Alert: Allowed 8 runs on 2026-04-24 vs DET. Bullpen arms likely still recovering.
Recent: L 1-6W 9-8W 9-2L 3-8W 7-2
Lineup vs Brandon Williamson (Career)
| Batter | Pos | PA | AVG | OPS | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brenton Doyle | CF | 4 | .250 | 0.500 | 0 |
| Ezequiel Tovar | SS | 2 | .500 | 2.500 | 1 |
| Jake McCarthy | LF | 2 | .500 | 1.500 | 0 |
10 batters with no matchup history
Our Top PicksLive Odds
Top PickCincinnati Reds -1.0 Run Line (-118, MEDIUM)
The preferred way to play Cincinnati tonight.
PickOver 9 Runs (-105, LOW)
This is a park-and-pitcher lean, and the low confidence is honest.
PickTomoyuki Sugano Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-172, HIGH)
Sugano's last three starts produced 4, 3, and 3 strikeouts.
Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds Game Preview
Brandon Williamson is the story tonight, and it is not a flattering one. The Cincinnati Reds left-hander carries a 5.40 ERA and 16 walks in just 25 innings into this start, a 5.76 BB/9 rate that ranks among the most problematic in baseball. His last three starts: five earned runs in 4.1 innings against Tampa Bay, six walks in four innings against the Angels, and a one-run outing sandwiched between those disasters that offered false hope. He is not a finesse pitcher working corners. He is a pitcher who cannot find the zone, and tonight he is doing it at Great American Ball Park, which carries a 1.18 home run factor ranking in the top three in all of MLB. Free bases in a small park are not a recipe for trouble. They are a guarantee of it.
For the Colorado Rockies, Tomoyuki Sugano provides everything Williamson does not: a 3.42 ERA, six walks in 26.1 innings, and a sharp 5.2-inning, one-run performance last week against San Diego. He throws strikes and trusts his stuff. The concern is that nearly the entire Cincinnati lineup carries zero career data against him. When a lineup meets an unfamiliar pitcher, the first time through the order is often a chess match. Sugano could exploit that. But Cincinnati is 6-1 against left-handed starters this season, and the Reds go into this game 8-2 in their last 10 with a plus-6 run differential on the year.
Elly De La Cruz is the single most dangerous variable in this game. He is hitting .291 with 10 home runs, 24 RBI, and a .952 OPS in 130 plate appearances. He homered Tuesday in a 3-for-4, four-RBI performance against this same Colorado staff. Reds broadcaster John Sadak framed it directly: "Elly's not even hot right now." That is the context. The numbers above represent a player not yet at his ceiling. Sal Stewart adds a .598 slugging percentage and nine home runs of his own, giving Cincinnati two legitimate power threats who can punish any pitcher who nibbles around the strike zone.
Mickey Moniak enters with an 11-game hitting streak and a .655 slugging percentage that will dominate the pre-game narrative. Dig one layer deeper and you find a .357 OPS against left-handed pitching. That streak was built against right-handers, and tonight Moniak draws Williamson from the left side. Colorado is also 0-2 as a team against lefties this season, suggesting the vulnerability is systemic, not isolated. The Rockies arrive 6-11 on the road with a run differential of minus-16, a depleted pitching staff, and a lineup that has a structural weakness against the exact type of pitcher they are facing tonight.
Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds Key Insights
- Brandon Williamson has walked 16 batters in 25 innings this season. That is not a slump. It is a pattern. In Great American Ball Park, where the home run factor sits at 1.18, every free pass becomes a scoring threat multiplied by park dimensions.
- Cincinnati is 6-1 against left-handed starters in 2026. Cruz carries a 1.213 OPS split versus lefties and Stewart holds a 1.231 OPS versus lefties. Those numbers reflect a lineup built to hit southpaws, and tonight they get one.
- Sugano brings real competence to this start: 3.42 ERA, six walks in 26.1 innings, and a dominant outing last week. But he has allowed five home runs in 26.1 innings this year, and he is walking into the third-best home run park in baseball against a lineup seeing him for the first time or with almost no history.
- Mickey Moniak's 11-game streak is legitimate power production, but his .357 OPS against left-handed pitching is the hidden risk tonight. Colorado's 0-2 record as a team against lefties this season confirms this is not just Moniak's problem. It is a lineup-wide vulnerability.
- Cincinnati's bullpen carries a 2.45 ERA. That is a decisive late-inning advantage. Once the Reds build a lead through Williamson, the Colorado offense faces one of the most efficient relief corps in the NL.
- Both starters are working on seven days of extended rest. The freshness factor is neutral. The structural edges, park environment, and opposing splits all favor Cincinnati in this specific matchup.
Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Picks
Picks made April 29, 2026 at 04:24 AM ET. Odds shown reflect current market prices.
Cincinnati Reds ML (-167, MEDIUM)
Cincinnati Reds ML (-167, MEDIUM): Every layer of context in this game supports Cincinnati. They are 6-1 against left-handed starters, they play in a park that punishes mistakes, and their 2.45-ERA bullpen is among the best in baseball. Williamson's 5.40 ERA and 16 walks in 25 innings are not numbers you ignore. The price reflects a real edge. Colorado's market-implied probability sits at 47.6%, which is well above what their 6-11 road record, minus-16 run differential, and 0-2 split against lefties suggests.
Analysis insight — no specific bet associated
Cincinnati Reds -1.0 Run Line (-118, MEDIUM)
Cincinnati Reds -1.0 Run Line (-118, MEDIUM): The preferred way to play Cincinnati tonight. Sugano's efficiency and the uncertainty surrounding how the Reds lineup handles an unfamiliar right-hander both limit the blowout ceiling, which is exactly why -1.0 at -118 is the right line. It captures the expected margin without requiring a rout. The Reds' lineup depth against a walk-prone lefty in a power park makes a multi-run win the base case here.
Over 9 Runs (-105, LOW)
Over 9 Runs (-105, LOW): This is a park-and-pitcher lean, and the low confidence is honest. Williamson's walk rate manufactures baserunners, and GABP's HR factor converts those baserunners into runs. The Reds should be active on their half of the ledger. Sugano keeps the Colorado contribution in check, which creates the slim margin. Over 9 at -105 is thin. Treat it as a small-unit play built on environment rather than a strong model edge.
Tomoyuki Sugano Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-172, HIGH)
Tomoyuki Sugano Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-172, HIGH): Sugano's last three starts produced 4, 3, and 3 strikeouts. That is 10 across three outings, a 3.3-per-start average. His 2026 K/9 sits at 6.5, well below the pace needed to clear 4.5 in a single game. The Cincinnati lineup mixes contact hitters with power bats rather than swing-and-miss profiles. This is the clearest, most data-supported prop on the entire slate. Under 4.5 is strongly grounded by both rate and recent trend.
Brandon Williamson Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-154, HIGH)
Brandon Williamson Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-154, HIGH): Williamson's last three starts: 3, 2, and 3 strikeouts. Eight total across three outings. His 2026 K/9 of 5.4 is below average, and 16 walks in 25 innings tells you exactly how he works: nibbling around the zone, not attacking and punching hitters out. He failed to complete five innings in two of his last three starts, which limits total strikeout opportunity regardless of rate. Under 4.5 is supported by both his underlying numbers and recent output.
Nathaniel Lowe Under 0.5 Hits (+165, MEDIUM)
Nathaniel Lowe Under 0.5 Hits (+165, MEDIUM): Lowe is 1-for-8 in his career against Sugano, a .125 average with a .250 OPS. The sample is small and Sugano is a right-hander, which is Lowe's stronger platoon side. But the degree of suppression in those eight plate appearances is notable, and +165 offers enough value to take a position on a hitter with documented struggles against this specific pitcher. Limited career exposure is the main caveat.
Elly Cruz Home Run (+320, MEDIUM)
Elly Cruz Home Run (+320, MEDIUM): Cruz has 10 home runs and a .590 slugging percentage in 130 plate appearances. He homered Tuesday against this Rockies staff. Sugano has allowed five home runs in 26.1 innings this year, an above-average rate. GABP's HR factor of 1.18 amplifies that risk further. There is no career data between these two, so the entire bet rests on current form, pitcher HR rate, and park. At +320 with a market-implied 23.8% probability, those three factors converging in the same direction makes this look conservative. The risk is the small sample and the single-game variance inherent in home run props.
Hunter Goodman Home Run (+255, MEDIUM)
Hunter Goodman Home Run (+255, MEDIUM): Goodman has seven home runs in 111 plate appearances with a .520 slugging percentage and an .846 OPS against right-handers. Williamson has surrendered four home runs in 25 innings with persistent command issues that put hitters in hitter-friendly counts. At +255, the market implies roughly 28% probability. Goodman's power rate and Williamson's HR-per-inning rate inside the third-best HR park in baseball make that number beatable. No career BvP data available, so this rests on current form and pitcher profile.
SGP
SGP: Reds -1.0 / Over 9 / Cruz HR / Goodman HR: These four legs reinforce each other. A high-scoring game driven by Williamson's walk rate and GABP's dimensions creates the exact environment where Cruz and Goodman go deep, and where Cincinnati covers the -1.0 comfortably. The correlation runs in the right direction throughout. Use a small unit given the multi-leg variance, and treat the parlay as the high-upside extension of individual bets you already believe in.
Analysis insight — no specific bet associated
YRFI (-132)
YRFI (-132): Williamson walks batters at a historic rate for a rotation arm, and he faces the top of the Reds order led by Cruz and Stewart in a park where fly balls find the seats. A first-inning run is not a stretch. It is the expected outcome against a pitcher who cannot consistently throw strikes facing one of the hottest lineups in the NL. The -132 price may undervalue that risk given Williamson's control profile and the quality of hitters he faces in the first frame.
Key Players
Batting AverageCOL
Troy Johnston
.315Batting Average
RF
Home RunsCOL
Mickey Moniak
8Home Runs
LF
Runs Batted InCOL
Troy Johnston
16Runs Batted In
RF
Earned Run AverageCOL
Chase Dollander
2.25Earned Run Average
SP
WinsCOL
Chase Dollander
3Wins
SP
StrikeoutsCOL
Chase Dollander
39Strikeouts
SP
Batting AverageCIN
Elly De La Cruz
.291Batting Average
SS
Home RunsCIN
Elly De La Cruz
10Home Runs
SS
Runs Batted InCIN
Sal Stewart
29Runs Batted In
1B
Earned Run AverageCIN
Chase Burns
2.65Earned Run Average
SP
WinsCIN
Rhett Lowder
3Wins
SP
StrikeoutsCIN
Chase Burns
39Strikeouts
SP
Recent Form
Colorado Rockies
L10-8San Diego Padres
W4-3New York Mets
W3-1New York Mets
W3-0New York Mets
L7-2Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds
L6-1Tampa Bay Rays
W9-8Detroit Tigers
W9-2Detroit Tigers
L8-3Detroit Tigers
W7-2Colorado Rockies
Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds Summary
The setup for tonight at Great American Ball Park is about as clear as it gets. Brandon Williamson walks batters at a 5.76 BB/9 clip in a park that turns baserunners into runs with efficiency. The Cincinnati Reds are 6-1 against left-handed starters this season, their two best hitters carry 1.200-plus OPS marks versus lefties, and their bullpen is among the best in baseball. The best angle is the Reds -1.0 at -118, capturing the expected margin without requiring a blowout. Pair that with both strikeout unders, which are the highest-confidence props on the board given what both starters have done in their last three outings each.
The contrarian case exists on paper. Sugano is the more efficient arm, and nearly the entire Cincinnati lineup has zero career data against him. That first-time-through uncertainty is real. But the market already prices Colorado at 47.6% implied probability, well above what their road record, run differential, and platoon splits actually support. The gap runs against the contrarian position at current odds. Moniak's streak is real production, but .357 OPS against left-handed pitching is the number that matters tonight, and a 0-2 team record against lefties confirms that vulnerability goes beyond one hitter.
Williamson on the mound, Great American Ball Park, and the Reds hitting 6-1 against southpaws. Every walk he issues in the second or third inning gets multiplied in this environment. That is the game. For the full slate, see our MLB picks today, NRFI picks, and player props.
Head-to-Head History
Season SeriesCIN leads series 1-0
| Date | Matchup | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 28, 2026 | COL @ CIN | CINCIN 7-2 |
Compare odds for COL @ CIN
Frequently Asked Questions
