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Match Predictor
Pre-match Prediction
Baltimore Orioles 42%New York Yankees 58%
Market LinesRun Line: New York Yankees -0.5Total: O/U 8.5
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Model: Under 8.5
Model projects 8.0 total runs vs 8.5 line
Baltimore Orioles
All Over 8.5
56%
18/32
MLB: 48%
Starter
50%
3/6
vs NYY
100%
1/1
Avg Total
9.7
MLB: 8.9
Game Starter (6) Last Starter vs NYY vs NYY (1)
Kyle Bradish #38 · RHP · Age 30
4.20
ERA (2026)
9.3
K/9 (2026)
6
Starts (2026)
9.2
Avg Total (2026)
Last 3:
L BOS (Apr 26): 5.0IP, 3ER, 3K
ND @KC (Apr 20): 5.1IP, 1ER, 7K
ND ARI (Apr 15): 6.0IP, 2ER, 4K
L BOS (Apr 26): 5.0IP, 3ER, 3K
ND @KC (Apr 20): 5.1IP, 1ER, 7K
ND ARI (Apr 15): 6.0IP, 2ER, 4K
vs NYY: ND (May 02 2024): 4.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Bullpen (2026 Season)Good
ERA: 3.34MLB Avg: 3.959 relievers
⚠
Workload Alert: Allowed 11 runs on 2026-04-30 vs HOU. Bullpen arms likely still recovering.
Recent: L 3-5W 5-3W 10-3L 5-11L 2-7
Lineup vs Kyle Bradish (Career)
| Batter | Pos | PA | AVG | OPS | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge | RF | 14 | .111 | 0.496 | 0 |
| Jose Caballero | SS | 7 | .167 | 0.453 | 0 |
| Ryan McMahon | 3B | 7 | .000 | 0.143 | 0 |
| Trent Grisham | CF | 7 | .000 | 0.143 | 0 |
| Austin Wells | C | 6 | .000 | 0.000 | 0 |
| Paul Goldschmidt | 1B | 6 | .333 | 0.833 | 0 |
| Ben Rice | 1B | 5 | .600 | 1.800 | 1 |
| Cody Bellinger | LF | 5 | .200 | 0.400 | 0 |
| Amed Rosario | 3B | 3 | .000 | 0.000 | 0 |
| Jasson Dominguez | LF | 3 | .000 | 0.000 | 0 |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. | 2B | 2 | .000 | 0.000 | 0 |
2 batters with no matchup history
New York Yankees
All Over 8.5
41%
13/32
MLB: 48%
Starter
33%
2/6
vs BAL
100%
1/1
Avg Total
8.4
MLB: 8.9
Game Starter (6) Last Starter vs BAL vs BAL (1)
Ryan Weathers #40 · LHP · Age 27
3.21
ERA (2026)
10.8
K/9 (2026)
6
Starts (2026)
7.7
Avg Total (2026)
Last 3:
ND @HOU (Apr 25): 5.1IP, 2ER, 4K
W KC (Apr 19): 7.1IP, 0ER, 8K
L LAA (Apr 14): 5.0IP, 5ER, 10K
ND @HOU (Apr 25): 5.1IP, 2ER, 4K
W KC (Apr 19): 7.1IP, 0ER, 8K
L LAA (Apr 14): 5.0IP, 5ER, 10K
Bullpen (2026 Season)Average
ERA: 3.67MLB Avg: 3.958 relievers
Recent: L 4-7W 4-2W 3-2L 0-3W 7-2
Lineup vs Ryan Weathers (Career)
| Batter | Pos | PA | AVG | OPS | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leody Taveras | CF | 5 | .200 | 0.400 | 0 |
| Blaze Alexander | 3B | 2 | .500 | 1.000 | 0 |
| Pete Alonso | 1B | 2 | .500 | 1.000 | 0 |
| Neill | RF | 2 | .500 | 1.500 | 0 |
| Weston Wilson | 3B | 2 | .000 | 0.500 | 0 |
8 batters with no matchup history
Our Top PicksLive Odds
Top PickYankees -1.0 (-125) | MEDIUM confidence.
Yankees -1.0 (-125) | MEDIUM confidence. Baltimore is 0-6 against left-handed starters in 2026, and the market prices them at only 41.6% implied loss ...
PickUnder 8.5 runs (-118) | LOW confidence.
Under 8.5 runs (-118) | LOW confidence. There is no strong model edge at this number, so keep position sizing modest. The non-model case: Weathers' el...
PickKyle Bradish Under 5.5 strikeouts (-127)
Kyle Bradish Under 5.5 strikeouts (-127) | HIGH confidence. This is the clearest prop in this matchup. Bradish's last three starts produced 3, 7, and ...
Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees Game Preview
Ryan Weathers is the story on the mound today, and that is by design. The New York Yankees lefty has posted a 3.21 ERA, a 10.7 K/9 rate, and a 2.1 BB/9 through 33.2 innings in 2026. His April 19 start against Kansas City showed what he looks like at full tilt: 7.1 innings, zero runs, eight strikeouts, one walk. That is a pitcher with real command of his stuff. On the other side, Kyle Bradish is arriving at Yankee Stadium in a very different place. His ERA has climbed to 4.20 this season, and the number that concerns me most is his walk rate: 5.1 BB/9, up from 3.4 over his career. In his last start against Boston on April 26, he issued four walks in five innings and managed only three strikeouts. A pitcher working from behind cannot miss bats at a high clip, and that math is showing up directly in his results.
The Baltimore Orioles are 0-6 against left-handed starters in 2026. That is a team-wide platoon deficiency, not a small-sample blip. Their away record this season stands at 6-8, and they have lost their last two. Multiple regulars carry compromised platoon splits against southpaws, and Weathers is exactly the type of arm built to expose that. DraftKings analysts noted that "the O's pitching staff has been brutal, completely undone by injuries and poor batted-ball luck." That extends to the broader road context. Facing a lefty with a 10.7 K/9 rate and a six-game NRFI streak does not make any of that easier.
The Yankees have gone 21-11 with a +52 run differential, posting a 9-5 record at home this season. Aaron Judge owns 12 home runs and a 1.405 OPS over the last seven days, continuing his MVP-caliber 2026. Ben Rice may be the most dangerous bat in this specific matchup: he is slashing .330/.441/.728 this season with 11 home runs in 127 plate appearances, and in five career plate appearances against Bradish, he has hit .600 with a 1.800 OPS and a home run. That is a small 2025 sample and should be weighted accordingly, but it aligns with everything Rice is doing this year. Yankee Stadium's 1.15 home run park factor and its short right-field porch built for left-handed power add another layer of risk for a walk-prone starter.
There is a contrarian case worth hearing before the picks. Bradish posted a 2.75 ERA in 2024 and a 2.53 ERA in 2025. The current walk spike covers only 30 innings, and elite command pitchers do occasionally lose the zone for a month before reclaiming it. Both clubs played night games on May 1, making any fatigue factor symmetric. Weathers himself allowed five earned runs against the Angels on April 14, so his floor includes rough outings. The market prices Baltimore at 41.6% implied win probability, which only partially discounts the platoon mismatch. The contrarian take is noted, but the sum of evidence points firmly toward New York in today's MLB action.
Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees Key Insights
- Baltimore is 0-6 against left-handed starters in 2026. That is a team-wide deficit, not noise. Weathers brings a 10.7 K/9 rate and 2.1 BB/9 into this matchup, making him the ideal pitcher to expose it at home.
- Bradish has walked 17 batters in 30 innings this season, more than double his career rate. In his last start he issued four walks against Boston in only five innings with three strikeouts. High walk rates and low strikeout totals are directly connected problems for a starter's effectiveness.
- Ben Rice is the Yankees' most dangerous bat in this specific matchup. He is slashing .330/.441/.728 this season with 11 home runs, and in five career plate appearances against Bradish, he has posted a 1.800 OPS with a home run. Note the small 2025-only sample, but his 2026 power numbers give it real weight.
- Weathers' 16.5 outs line is priced as essentially a coin flip by the market, signaling genuine early-exit risk. His last three starts averaged roughly 5.7 innings, and his April 25 Houston outing produced only 4 strikeouts in 5.1 frames. Inning depth matters for both his strikeout prop and bullpen workload.
- The Yankees' bullpen holds a 3.67 ERA this season. Baltimore's team pitching sits at 4.39 ERA with a 1.44 WHIP. The late-game run-prevention advantage belongs firmly to New York, which is directly relevant for run-line coverage.
- Day-after-night fatigue applies equally to both clubs. Both played Friday night at Yankee Stadium, and both lineups may be slow early. It is a real factor but a neutral one. It does not change the structural platoon mismatch that defines this game.
Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees Betting Picks
Picks made May 02, 2026 at 04:15 AM ET. Odds shown reflect current market prices.
Yankees -1.0 (-125) | MEDIUM confidence.
Yankees -1.0 (-125) | MEDIUM confidence. Baltimore is 0-6 against left-handed starters in 2026, and the market prices them at only 41.6% implied loss probability. Weathers (3.21 ERA, 10.7 K/9, 2.1 BB/9) is exactly the arm to exploit that deficit. Bradish working from behind in counts generates runs without requiring the Yankees to hit him cleanly, and this lineup (21-11, +52 run differential, 8-2 L10) is one of the most dangerous in baseball against a control-challenged starter. The -1.0 run line at -125 reflects the structural edge here.
Under 8.5 runs (-118) | LOW confidence.
Under 8.5 runs (-118) | LOW confidence. There is no strong model edge at this number, so keep position sizing modest. The non-model case: Weathers' elite strikeout rate suppresses Baltimore's already compromised LHP offense, and both bullpens are quality enough to hold late leads. Bradish's walk rate introduces variance that could allow early runs, but the game is more likely to stay controlled than explode. Lean Under, but the low confidence rating means this is a secondary position only.
Moneyline
Moneyline: No pick. The Yankees at -175 imply 63.7% win probability, but our model puts their win probability lower, meaning the market overprices the favorite. The Orioles at +120 (45.5% implied) are also overpriced relative to our model's estimate for Baltimore. Neither side offers exploitable edge, and we pass on the moneyline entirely. There is honest value in admitting when the market has gotten it right enough.
Analysis insight — no specific bet associated
Kyle Bradish Under 5.5 strikeouts (-127)
Kyle Bradish Under 5.5 strikeouts (-127) | HIGH confidence. This is the clearest prop in this matchup. Bradish's last three starts produced 3, 7, and 4 strikeouts, averaging 4.7 per outing. His April 26 start against Boston: five innings, four walks, three strikeouts. When a pitcher is consistently working from behind in counts, he shifts toward soft contact rather than swinging-strike pitches. The 2026 walk rate is actively eating into his strikeout upside. Under 5.5 at -127 (55.9% implied) is well-supported by a clear three-start trend showing real command erosion.
Ryan Weathers Under 6.5 strikeouts (-169
Ryan Weathers Under 6.5 strikeouts (-169) | MEDIUM confidence. Weathers' last three starts: 4 K in 5.1 innings, 8 K in 7.1 innings, 10 K in 5.0 innings. The range is wide. His April 25 Houston start produced only 4 strikeouts in 5.1 innings, and his outs line sits near a coin flip, signaling the market sees real early-exit risk. To clear 6.5 strikeouts he needs a long, dominant outing. The inconsistent inning depth makes that uncertain. Under at -169 reflects market consensus, and the early-exit risk justifies the lean.
Trent Grisham Under 0.5 hits (+106) | ME
Trent Grisham Under 0.5 hits (+106) | MEDIUM confidence. Grisham is hitting .155 this season with a .610 OPS against right-handed pitching and a .633 OPS against lefties. He is struggling from both sides of the plate. More specifically, in 7 career plate appearances against Bradish, he has zero hits and a 0.143 OPS. That career matchup is damning on its own. At +106, the Under offers slight positive value against a historically brutal individual record.
Ben Rice Over 1.5 total bases (+112) | M
Ben Rice Over 1.5 total bases (+112) | MEDIUM confidence. Rice is slashing .330/.441/.728 this season with a 1.112 OPS against right-handed pitching. In five career plate appearances against Bradish, all from 2025, he has hit .600 with a 1.800 OPS and a home run. Weight that sample carefully given its size, but Rice's 2026 production (.728 SLG, 11 HR in 127 PA) suggests elite power is his baseline. Bradish walking batters means he will work from behind, which forces him into hittable counts for a slugger of Rice's caliber. Over 1.5 total bases at +112 provides genuine value here.
Aaron Judge to hit a home run (+240) | L
Aaron Judge to hit a home run (+240) | LOW confidence. Judge's career line against Bradish is 14 PA, .111 average, zero home runs, and a 0.496 OPS. He has never taken Bradish deep. His current form is exceptional, with 12 home runs this season and a 1.405 OPS over the last seven days, and Yankee Stadium's 1.15 park factor provides a genuine boost for right-field power. But the career matchup suppresses this firmly to speculative territory. At +240 (29.4% implied), it is worth a small position for pure volume and park factor reasons. This is not a primary bet. Treat it as a tail on a strong hitting performance, not a statistical edge.
Same-Game Parlay
Same-Game Parlay: Yankees -1.0 + Under 8.5 + Bradish Under 5.5 K + Grisham Under 0.5 hits. The legs correlate naturally. A low-scoring game where Baltimore's lineup is suppressed and Bradish struggles to miss bats sets up the Yankees to win by multiple runs. Dominant Yankees pitching in a sub-9-run environment creates a logical connection between the run-line cover, the total staying under, and the Baltimore player suppression props. Each leg carries individual merit as outlined above. Together they reflect the complete game narrative: Weathers controls Baltimore's platoon-compromised lineup, Bradish walks his way into trouble without punching out hitters, and the Yankees build a lead their bullpen protects.
Analysis insight — no specific bet associated
NRFI (-123). Weathers has a six-game act
NRFI (-123). Weathers has a six-game active NRFI streak in 2026. That is the single strongest first-inning signal in this matchup. Bradish's most recent start was a YRFI, which breaks a prior quiet trend, and the Yankees at home carry a 13/19 YRFI lean as a team. The market is nearly even at NRFI -123 versus YRFI -120. Weathers' uninterrupted streak of clean first innings is the marginal edge at a near-coin-flip price. Lean NRFI.
Key Players
Batting AverageBAL
Taylor Ward
.294Batting Average
LF
Home RunsBAL
Gunnar Henderson
9Home Runs
SS
Runs Batted InBAL
Jeremiah Jackson
24Runs Batted In
2B
Earned Run AverageBAL
Shane Baz
4.50Earned Run Average
SP
WinsBAL
Trevor Rogers
2Wins
SP
StrikeoutsBAL
Kyle Bradish
31Strikeouts
SP
Batting AverageNYY
Ben Rice
.330Batting Average
1B
Home RunsNYY
Aaron Judge
12Home Runs
RF
Runs Batted InNYY
Ben Rice
26Runs Batted In
1B
Earned Run AverageNYY
Cam Schlittler
1.51Earned Run Average
SP
WinsNYY
Max Fried
4Wins
SP
StrikeoutsNYY
Cam Schlittler
49Strikeouts
SP
Recent Form
Baltimore Orioles
L5-3Boston Red Sox
W5-3Houston Astros
W10-3Houston Astros
L11-5Houston Astros
L7-2New York Yankees
New York Yankees
L7-4Houston Astros
W4-2Texas Rangers
W3-2Texas Rangers
L3-0Texas Rangers
W7-2Baltimore Orioles
Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees Summary
The pitching matchup is the story, as it almost always is. Weathers enters on seven days of rest with the best command metrics of his career, facing a team that is 0-6 against left-handed starters this season. Bradish arrives with a walk rate that has ballooned to more than double his career norm, and his most recent start against Boston confirmed the control issues are ongoing, not isolated. The Yankees, with a +52 run differential and a home record of 9-5, are built to win this type of game. The structural advantage is clear and the market only partially prices it in.
The best single play on this card is Bradish Under 5.5 strikeouts (HIGH confidence). Three consecutive starts below that threshold, a per-start average of 4.7 strikeouts, and a walk rate that actively limits swinging-strike opportunities. That is the cleanest, most evidence-backed position available today. The Yankees -1.0 at -125 pairs naturally with it. Keep the Under 8.5 total as a secondary lean given the low confidence rating. Bradish's walk issues introduce run variance that prevents strong total conviction. Size each position accordingly, and resist the temptation to over-leverage the obvious narrative on any single bet.
For the full slate, see our MLB picks today, NRFI picks, and player props.
Head-to-Head History
Season SeriesNYY lead series 1-0
| Date | Matchup | Result |
|---|---|---|
| May 01, 2026 | BAL @ NYY | NYYNYY 7-2 |
Compare odds for BAL @ NYY
Frequently Asked Questions
