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Match Predictor
Pre-match Prediction
New York Yankees 59%Baltimore Orioles 41%
Market LinesRun Line: New York Yankees -0.5Total: O/U 8.5
↓
Model: Under 8.5
Model projects 8.1 total runs vs 8.5 line
New York Yankees
All Over 8.5
43%
18/42
MLB: 48%
Starter
63%
5/8
vs BAL
80%
4/5
Avg Total
8.6
MLB: 8.9
Game Starter (8) Last Starter vs BAL vs BAL (5)
Will Warren #29 · RHP · Age 27
3.46
ERA (2026)
11.6
K/9 (2026)
8
Starts (2026)
11.1
Avg Total (2026)
Last 3:
L TEX (May 06): 4.0IP, 6ER, 7K
W BAL (May 01): 6.1IP, 1ER, 9K
W @HOU (Apr 24): 6.0IP, 2ER, 6K
L TEX (May 06): 4.0IP, 6ER, 7K
W BAL (May 01): 6.1IP, 1ER, 9K
W @HOU (Apr 24): 6.0IP, 2ER, 6K
vs BAL: L (Sep 19 2025): 5.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Bullpen (2026 Season)Good
ERA: 3.23MLB Avg: 3.958 relievers
Recent: W 9-2L 0-6L 3-4L 3-4L 2-3
Lineup vs Will Warren (Career)
| Batter | Pos | PA | AVG | OPS | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gunnar Henderson | SS | 14 | .300 | 0.900 | 0 |
| Adley Rutschman | C | 7 | .000 | 0.143 | 0 |
| Colton Cowser | RF | 7 | .429 | 1.286 | 0 |
| Dylan Beavers | RF | 7 | .000 | 0.143 | 0 |
| Samuel Basallo | C | 7 | .286 | 0.572 | 0 |
| Coby Mayo | 3B | 6 | .167 | 0.334 | 0 |
| Taylor Ward | LF | 6 | .167 | 0.334 | 0 |
| Leody Taveras | CF | 4 | .250 | 0.500 | 0 |
| Pete Alonso | 1B | 3 | .500 | 2.667 | 1 |
| Neill | RF | 3 | .333 | 1.666 | 1 |
| Blaze Alexander | 3B | 2 | .500 | 1.000 | 0 |
| Jeremiah Jackson | 2B | 2 | .000 | 0.000 | 0 |
1 batters with no matchup history
Baltimore Orioles
All Over 8.5
55%
23/42
MLB: 48%
Starter
—
—
vs NYY
80%
4/5
Avg Total
9.7
MLB: 8.9
Game Starter (0) Last Starter vs NYY vs NYY (5)
Bullpen (2026 Season)Average
ERA: 4.08MLB Avg: 3.959 relievers
Recent: L 3-4L 3-4L 2-6W 2-1W 3-2
Our Top PicksLive Odds
Top PickWill Warren Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-167) | HIGH confidence
This is the anchor of the card.
PickAdley Rutschman Under 0.5 Hits (+148) | HIGH confidence
Rutschman is hitting .302 this season and is one of the better catchers in the American League.
PickDylan Beavers Under 0.5 Hits (-110) | MEDIUM confidence
Beavers is 0-for-7 against Warren with a .143 OPS across two seasons.
New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles Game Preview
Will Warren steps to the mound at Camden Yards tonight as the known quantity in a matchup built on uncertainty. The 27-year-old right-hander carries a 3.46 ERA and 53 strikeouts across 41.2 innings in 2026, a rate that works out to over 11 punchouts per nine. Eleven days ago, Warren came to this same lineup and delivered 6.1 innings of one-run ball with nine strikeouts against the Baltimore Orioles. Before a rough four-inning outing against Texas on May 6, where a bases-loaded walk snowballed into a six-run collapse, he had posted a sub-2 ERA across his previous four starts and struck out six or more batters in five straight. On six days of rest tonight, his arm should be at full strength. That is a problem for Baltimore.
The bigger uncertainty is on the other side of the diamond. Baltimore has not named a starter for this game. The most likely candidate is Rogers, who has been on the injured list since April 25 with an illness, missing 17 days of mound work. Returning without rhythm against a New York Yankees lineup producing 5.2 runs per game on the road is a dangerous spot. New York arrives on a four-game losing streak, their longest of the season, but context matters: they outscored Baltimore 32-8 across four games in early May. Tonight's MLB matchup hinges on whether Baltimore's hidden-starter gamble pays off or backfires in the first two innings.
Dig into the batter-vs-pitcher data and Warren's edge becomes concrete. Adley Rutschman, Baltimore's best hitter at .302 this season, is 0-for-7 with a .143 OPS against Warren. Dylan Beavers carries the same line: 0-for-7, .143 OPS across two seasons of plate appearances. These are not one-day anomalies. Both hitters have seen Warren multiple times and have not figured him out. The exception is Pete Alonso, who owns a .500 average and a 2.667 OPS in 3 career plate appearances against him, including a home run. Camden Yards runs a home run park factor of 1.06, and the short left field wall fits Alonso's pull-power profile perfectly. Samuel Basallo is the other bat to monitor: the hottest hitter in this lineup right now at a 1.122 OPS over the last seven days, with a .286 average in limited looks against Warren. Those two carry the most potential to change the score.
Baltimore is 11-11 at home and 19-23 overall, sitting nine games back in the division with a minus-40 run differential. New York is 26-16 and 12-10 on the road. The Orioles took Game 1 of this series 3-2 and Camden Yards will be loud tonight. That home energy matters when the pitching matchup is this lopsided. Warren's stuff gives the Yankees the clearest structural edge in this game, but baseball rarely cares about structure.
New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles Key Insights
- Warren's BvP dominance is the story. Rutschman and Beavers are a combined 0-for-14 against him. Baltimore averages .230 and a .697 OPS as a unit against right-handed pitching, and Warren is considerably better than the average righty they have faced this season.
- The TBD Baltimore starter is the largest single variable on the board. If Rogers returns from a 17-day illness-related IL stint without his rhythm, the Yankees lineup gets a significant early opportunity against a pitcher still finding his footing.
- Baltimore is 18-14 against right-handed pitching this season overall, but against Yankees right-handers specifically, they have scored just 8 runs across four games in May. The broader split does not capture the series-specific trend.
- The model projects a close game, with the margin between these teams near one run. That directional signal supports Baltimore +1.5 as the better risk-adjusted play. Trusting the Yankees to win by two or more when the model sees a near-even gap is a different kind of bet entirely.
- The Yankees are 3-9 in one-run games this season. If this game stays tight through the seventh and eighth innings, that record works against expecting New York to pull away late.
- Pete Alonso is the one Baltimore bat who has genuinely damaged Warren, posting a 2.667 OPS and a home run in 3 career plate appearances. With Camden's short left field and a 1.06 HR park factor, he is the wild card in Warren's night.
New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Picks
Picks made May 12, 2026 at 04:13 AM ET. Odds shown reflect current market prices.
Will Warren Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-167) | HIGH confidence
Will Warren Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-167) | HIGH confidence: This is the anchor of the card. Warren's 2026 strikeout rate sits at over 11 per nine innings. He punched out 9 Baltimore batters the last time he faced this exact lineup. He posted 6 or more strikeouts in five straight starts before the Texas outing, where he still totaled 7 Ks in four innings. With six days of rest and a Baltimore lineup he has consistently neutralized across multiple seasons, Over 5.5 is the clearest edge on tonight's slate. The BvP data does the heavy lifting.
Adley Rutschman Under 0.5 Hits (+148) | HIGH confidence
Adley Rutschman Under 0.5 Hits (+148) | HIGH confidence: Rutschman is hitting .302 this season and is one of the better catchers in the American League. Against Warren specifically, he is 0-for-7 with a .143 OPS, including 0-for-3 in 2026. The market is pricing him at plus-money to go hitless. That is a mispricing. The BvP data is consistent across multiple seasons and multiple looks. This is value worth taking.
Dylan Beavers Under 0.5 Hits (-110) | MEDIUM confidence
Dylan Beavers Under 0.5 Hits (-110) | MEDIUM confidence: Beavers is 0-for-7 against Warren with a .143 OPS across two seasons. His .243 season average does not carry into this specific matchup. At -110, the juice is reasonable for that level of documented inability to make contact against one pitcher. Consistent pattern, fair price.
Taylor Ward Under 0.5 Hits (+102) | MEDIUM confidence
Taylor Ward Under 0.5 Hits (+102) | MEDIUM confidence: Ward is hitless against Warren in 2026 (0-for-3 this season), continuing a modest track record from 2025. His season .257 average masks the matchup-specific struggle. Getting plus-money on a player who has not managed a hit against tonight's starter all season is worth the position.
Samuel Basallo Over 0.5 Total Bases (-164) | MEDIUM confidence
Samuel Basallo Over 0.5 Total Bases (-164) | MEDIUM confidence: Basallo is the one Baltimore bat with a credible track record against Warren, carrying a .286 average and .572 OPS across 7 plate appearances. He is also the hottest hitter in this lineup right now, posting a 1.122 OPS over the last seven days. Camden Yards' HR park factor of 1.06 adds extra-base potential. Among available Baltimore bats with data against Warren, he makes the clearest case for reaching base and extending to a total base tonight.
Baltimore Orioles +1.5 (-135) | LOW confidence
Baltimore Orioles +1.5 (-135) | LOW confidence: The contrarian angle here is grounded in math. The model projects this as a near-coin-flip game by margin, well inside one run. A Yankees win by two or more is not the comfortable projection the -1.5 requires. Baltimore just won Game 1, the crowd is behind them at Camden Yards, and the Yankees are 3-9 in one-run games this season. Warren's one-bad-start fragility is also real. At -135, the Orioles +1.5 is the better risk-adjusted position than backing New York to cover larger. Low confidence reflects the TBD starter risk, which cuts both ways.
Under 8.5 Runs (-119) | LOW confidence
Under 8.5 Runs (-119) | LOW confidence: Warren's strikeout dominance of this Baltimore lineup is the lean toward the Under. When he is on, he limits traffic and prevents crooked numbers. The TBD Baltimore starter adds scoring uncertainty in the opposite direction. If Rogers walks out rusty, the Yankees can score early and push the total. The model lands right at the 8.5 line, so this is a thin edge. The BvP case for Warren suppressing Baltimore's offense is the marginal justification for the lean.
Moneyline | No pick
Moneyline | No pick: The market prices the Yankees at roughly 59.5% win probability after removing the vig. Our model essentially matches that number. When the market and the model align that closely, there is no exploitable edge on either side. Skipping the moneyline is the honest call here, not a hedging position. Both prices are fair.
Analysis insight — no specific bet associated
Same Game Parlay
Same Game Parlay: Baltimore +1.5 / Under 8.5 / Warren Over 5.5 Ks / Rutschman Under 0.5 Hits: The thesis connects cleanly. Warren's high-strikeout performance suppresses Baltimore's offense, which keeps the total under 8.5, holds Baltimore close enough to cover +1.5, and Rutschman going hitless reinforces the pitching-dominance narrative across every leg. These legs are correlated in the right direction. A dominant Warren outing makes all four outcomes more likely simultaneously, which is the entire point of building the SGP this way.
NRFI (-130) | MEDIUM confidence
NRFI (-130) | MEDIUM confidence: Warren's 2026 numbers point to clean first innings. May 1 outing against Baltimore produced 9 strikeouts and 1 earned run over 6.1 innings, consistent with minimal early damage. The TBD Baltimore starter, likely a rusty Rogers, reduces the probability of a first-inning explosion on the New York side as well. At -130 with a market-implied 56.5% probability, the lean to no-run-first-inning rides on Warren's first-inning efficiency against a weak lineup and the unknown starter's limited ability to damage the Yankees early. The TBD element keeps confidence from climbing higher.
Key Players
Batting AverageNYY
Ben Rice
.312Batting Average
1B
Home RunsNYY
Aaron Judge
16Home Runs
RF
Runs Batted InNYY
Aaron Judge
30Runs Batted In
RF
Earned Run AverageNYY
Cam Schlittler
1.35Earned Run Average
SP
WinsNYY
Cam Schlittler
5Wins
SP
StrikeoutsNYY
Cam Schlittler
59Strikeouts
SP
Batting AverageBAL
Taylor Ward
.257Batting Average
LF
Home RunsBAL
Gunnar Henderson
9Home Runs
SS
Runs Batted InBAL
Jeremiah Jackson
24Runs Batted In
2B
Earned Run AverageBAL
Shane Baz
5.48Earned Run Average
SP
WinsBAL
Chris Bassitt
3Wins
SP
StrikeoutsBAL
Kyle Bradish
45Strikeouts
SP
Recent Form
New York Yankees
W9-2Texas Rangers
L6-0Milwaukee Brewers
L4-3Milwaukee Brewers
L3-2Baltimore Orioles
Baltimore Orioles
L4-3Miami Marlins
L4-3Athletics
L6-2Athletics
W2-1Athletics
W3-2New York Yankees
New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles Summary
The edge on this game runs through Warren's right arm. When he is on, this Baltimore lineup does not score. He proved that 11 days ago with 9 strikeouts and 1 earned run over six-plus innings. The model projects a close game, with the margin between these teams near one run, and that signal is the foundation for the contrarian play: Baltimore +1.5 at -135 is a better risk-adjusted position than backing the Yankees to win by two or more when the math says otherwise. The Under 8.5 at -119 follows the same logic. Warren controls half the run-scoring equation, and unless the TBD home starter hands the Yankees a big inning early, this game likely ends in the 7-9 run range. The highest-confidence plays are the strikeout and BvP props: Warren over 5.5 Ks is the clearest edge on the card, and Rutschman hitless at +148 represents genuine market inefficiency. Those two legs anchor the SGP along with Baltimore +1.5 and the Under 8.5, forming a coherent, correlated narrative built on one dominant starter.
The risk sits entirely with the unknown. If Rogers comes out sharp after 17 days off, this game stays tight and the SGP hums. If he unravels early, the Yankees push the total over and any run-line coverage gets complicated. That volatility is priced into the LOW confidence tags on the run line and total. The BvP props carry their own confidence because that data does not change based on what Baltimore does on the mound. Warren versus Rutschman and Beavers is the same matchup regardless of who throws first for the Orioles. The edge does not care about context. It only cares about the numbers. Follow the numbers.
For the full slate, see our MLB picks today, NRFI picks, and player props.
Head-to-Head History
Season SeriesBAL leads series 1-0
| Date | Matchup | Result |
|---|---|---|
| May 11, 2026 | NYY @ BAL | BALBAL 3-2 |
Compare odds for NYY @ BAL
Frequently Asked Questions
