Foster Griffin gets the ball for Washington at Nationals Park. The left-hander has genuine strikeout stuff: 49 punchouts in 51.0 innings, an 8.65 K/9, and a 3.53 ERA on the season. But he is inconsistent in a way that demands respect from bettors. His last start was 9 earned runs in 4.1 innings against Cincinnati. The start before that was 7.0 innings, 1 earned run, 9 strikeouts against Miami. Two starts earlier: 6 shutout innings against Milwaukee. Griffin can be a shutdown lefty. He can also get shelled. Tonight is largely a coin flip on which version arrives in the first inning.

Here is the number the public is missing after Monday's 16-7 blowout. The Mets are 3-9 against left-handed pitching this season. That is not noise. Griffin is a lefty. Juan Soto, the Mets' most dangerous bat, carries a .642 OPS against left-handers, a steep drop from his overall .873 mark. Marcus Semien checks in at .619 against southpaws. The offensive surge that made Game 1 historic was largely built on a 10-run 12th inning, the first time an NL team had accomplished that since 1919. That context inflates New York's recent scoring profile in a way that does not carry over to a game started by a left-hander with an 8.65 K/9. As Mets infielder Bo Bichette said after Monday's win: "We're just doing our job. Showing up every day and trying to win games. It's fun to win." The Mets are rolling, but they are rolling directly into their worst directional split on the roster.

Washington brings legitimate offensive upside against McLean. CJ Abrams is posting a 1.003 OPS against right-handed pitching this season, and McLean is a right-hander. James Wood carries a .953 vR OPS with 12 home runs on the year. Abrams and Wood at the top of the lineup are genuine threats. The career matchup data between Washington's hitters and McLean is thin, three plate appearances or fewer for most, far too small to override full-season splits in either direction. What McLean's command profile does establish is that Washington will have to earn runs through contact, not walks. With a Nationals lineup that scores 5.5 runs per game overall but posts a 13-20 record against right-handed pitching, that task is harder than the top-line numbers suggest.

• McLean's 2.92 ERA and 0.96 WHIP are the clear pitching advantage tonight. His 15 BB in 52.1 IP mean he limits the free baserunners Washington would need to manufacture runs against their 13-20 record vs right-handed pitching.
• The Mets are 3-9 against left-handed pitching this season. Griffin is a LHP. This is the single most important number in the matchup, and the public betting wave off Monday's blowout is almost entirely ignoring it.
• Griffin's ceiling is real: 9 strikeouts in 7.0 innings against Miami on May 8 shows what he can do. His floor is equally real: 9 earned runs in 4.1 innings against Cincinnati on May 14. The picks in this game rise or fall with which version of Griffin shows up in the first inning.
• CJ Abrams (1.003 OPS vs RHP) and James Wood (.953 vR OPS, 12 HR) are Washington's most dangerous hitters against McLean's handedness. These two are the Nationals' primary path to runs tonight.
• The Mets' bullpen is taxed after Monday's 12-inning marathon. If McLean exits before the seventh, New York has less reliable depth than usual to close out a tight game.
• Nationals Park plays neutral (runs factor 1.0, HR factor 1.02). No park inflation or suppression to factor into total analysis here.

McLean is the better pitcher in this matchup on current numbers, and his command profile should keep Washington's scoring in check through five or six innings. But the Nationals have Abrams (.299, 1.003 vR OPS) and Wood (.953 vR OPS, 12 HR) ready to make McLean work. This does not project as a Mets blowout. It projects as a game where both starters limit run production and a one-run margin is entirely plausible. The Griffin strikeout prop at +114 is the best-priced bet on the board given his 8.65 K/9 rate and the Mets' LHP struggles. The Semien hitless prop at +172 adds complementary value in the same direction, leveraging a hitter with a .619 OPS against southpaws facing a strikeout lefty at plus-money.

The honest caveat is Griffin himself. He allowed 9 earned runs five days ago. One bad first inning unravels the entire structure of these picks simultaneously. Bet the splits and the pitching data, but size accordingly for a game that carries genuine execution risk at LOW-to-MEDIUM confidence across the board. For the full slate, see our MLB picks today, NRFI picks, and player props.