Peterson is the bigger story, and not in a flattering way. The left-hander comes in on 22 days of rest after being demolished by this exact Washington lineup on April 29: 3.2 innings pitched, 7 earned runs, chased before the fourth inning. That outing is the single most predictive data point heading into tonight. His 2026 ERA sits at 5.40, and his team is 1-3 when he starts as a favorite. He did flash live stuff on May 16 with 8 strikeouts in 4 innings against the Yankees, but that was a different lineup. Not this Washington offense batting .282/.394/.506 with a .900 OPS against left-handed pitching over their last 104 plate appearances.

Washington's lineup is built to exploit this matchup. The Nationals are 11-5 against left-handed pitching this season. James Wood leads the charge with 13 home runs, a .399 OBP, and 157 wRC+. His 2026 plate appearances against Peterson have produced a 1.167 OPS, though the sample sits at just 3 PA. CJ Abrams is at .300/.389/.539 on the year, but his career line against Peterson tells a different story: 4-for-22, .182 average, 0.462 OPS across 25 PA, including a 0.000 OPS in 7 PA during 2025. Peterson handles Abrams with some regularity. The concern is every other bat surrounding him in a lineup that has averaged 8.5 runs per game across the first two games of this series.

This is the rubber match of a three-game set that produced 38 combined runs across the first two games, and both bullpens walk in depleted. The contrarian case for New York is real: Juan Soto has posted a 1.479 OPS over the last 7 days and carries a 2.400 career OPS against Cavalli across 6 PA, including a home run. The Mets' May 18 blowout win proves this lineup can do damage in any environment. The market still prices New York as a slight favorite at -122. But structurally, Peterson is walking into the one environment where his weaknesses are most exposed, facing the lineup that knocked him out in under four innings three weeks ago, with a starter on the other side who already has his number. The lean is Washington.

• Peterson's April 29 line against Washington says everything: 3.2 IP, 7 ER. He was removed before the fourth inning against this exact lineup. That outing is the baseline for how this game could unfold early.
• Cavalli struck out 10 Mets batters in 6 innings on April 29 and carries a 10.02 K/9 rate into this start. New York hits just .232 as a team and scores 4.1 runs per game. His strikeout potential against this lineup is real and has already been demonstrated in 2026.
• Washington is 11-5 against left-handed pitching this season, batting .282/.506 with a .900 OPS in that split over the last 104 PA. Peterson steps into the one environment where the Nationals' platoon edge is fully maximized.
• CJ Abrams owns a .182 average and 0.462 OPS across 25 career PA against Peterson, including a 0.000 OPS in 7 PA during 2025. His strong 2026 season (.300 AVG, 153 wRC+) does not carry over against this specific left-hander.
• Both bullpens are taxed after 38 combined runs in the prior two games of this series. Peterson has averaged around 4.0 innings per start in his last three outings, meaning New York will need relief arms early and the scoring floor rises considerably as a result.
• Juan Soto carries a 2.400 career OPS against Cavalli across 6 PA, including a home run, and has posted a 1.479 OPS over the last 7 days. He is the most dangerous individual wildcard on the Mets roster and the primary reason the contrarian case has any merit at all.

The player prop side is where the cleaner value lives. Soto at +122 for Over 1.5 total bases is the best-priced entry on the board given his 2.400 career OPS against Cavalli and his elite recent form. Wood at +130 for the same market is a close second, backed by Peterson's documented vulnerability against this lineup. The Abrams Under 0.5 hits at +136 is the most contrarian play on the card, but 25 career PA of consistent underperformance against Peterson is a data set, not noise. The Over 8.5 carries LOW confidence and reflects situational factors alone, so size it accordingly. This series has been wildly unpredictable, a Mets comeback is within the range of outcomes, and no pick in this environment should be treated as a certainty. Bet the edge, respect the variance.

For the full slate, see our MLB picks today, NRFI picks, and player props.