Wicks is the other side of this equation. The Chicago Cubs lefty last threw anything resembling a real start in September 2025. His three most recent tracked appearances: 3.0 innings, 1.0 innings, 1.0 innings. His career ERA as a starter is 5.48 over 46 innings in 2024 and 6.28 in 14.1 innings in 2025. The market prices him at roughly 14.5 outs, which is 4.8 innings. In tonight's MLB action, Wicks is a long reliever wearing a starter's number, and that framing is central to how you price this total and this game.

The Cubs arrive at PNC Park on a nine-game losing streak, averaging 3.1 runs per game during that run. They are also without Seiya Suzuki and Nico Hoerner, two of their better on-base contributors. The active lineup runs through Pete Crow-Armstrong, Ian Happ, Michael Busch, Alex Bregman, Michael Conforto, Pedro Ramírez, Moisés Ballesteros, Miguel Amaya, and Dansby Swanson. Johnson of the DraftKings Network framed it plainly: "Chicago has dropped eight straight and 12 of 14, turning a Memorial Day divisional opener into a reset spot." It is hard to argue with that when you see the lineup card.

PNC Park adds a suppressive baseline. The run factor sits at 0.96 and the home run factor at 0.90. Pittsburgh won Game 1 of this series 2-1 Monday and now sends its best starter to the mound against a depleted, struggling Cubs group. Brandon Lowe leads a Pirates offense with genuine momentum, posting a .970 OPS over the last seven days. The structure of this game favors the home team at almost every level.

• Ashcraft struck out 9, 5, and 6 batters in his last three starts, including a 9-strikeout performance in just 5.0 innings against this same Cubs group on April 11. He has fanned this lineup volume before and now gets a shorter, colder version of it.
• Wicks' workload ceiling is the biggest variable on the board. His last three appearances totaled just 5.0 innings combined. If he exits in the third or fourth inning, the Cubs go straight to a bullpen that carries a 3.34 ERA. That suppresses the Cubs' scoring ceiling while also keeping the game total in check.
• The Cubs are 11-14 in away games this season and are averaging 3.1 runs per game during their nine-game losing streak. Suzuki and Hoerner from the lineup removes the two best on-base threats. What remains is a group with multiple cold bats, including Swanson posting a 0.236 OPS over the last seven days.
• PNC Park's run factor of 0.96 and home run factor of 0.90 make it one of the more pitcher-friendly venues in the National League. The forecasted light wind toward right field is a minor offensive nudge, but the park's structure consistently mutes high-scoring outcomes, especially against a lineup currently posting near-zero barrel rates.
• Pittsburgh is 5-10 against left-handed starting pitchers this season. That is a real structural weakness worth acknowledging. However, Wicks' raw numbers are poor enough that the platoon disadvantage is less meaningful than it would be against a functional lefty ace. Pirates hitters still need to produce against a starter with a 5.48 career ERA in his role.
• Happ is 1-for-7 (.143 average, 0.286 OPS) in career plate appearances against Ashcraft, with a 0.000 OPS in 2026 specifically. Bregman is 0-for-2 against him in 2026. Busch sits at .125 average across 8 career PA. Multiple Cubs regulars have established suppression patterns against this pitcher, and the two bats most likely to disrupt that pattern, Suzuki and Hoerner, are not in the lineup.

The contrarian case is worth a clear-eyed look. Chicago's bullpen ERA of 3.34 is legitimate. Wicks exits, the Cubs can limit run exposure. Pittsburgh is also 5-10 against left-handed starters, a structural weakness that matters in games where the opposing lefty is functional. And the Cubs did show improved underlying metrics in their last two games, posting a 44.4% hard-hit rate and a .398 xwOBA against Houston. That signal is real. But one or two better offensive outputs do not offset Ashcraft's specific edge over this specific lineup, and a Cubs bullpen that holds the Pirates to four runs still likely loses this game. The weight of evidence runs in one direction.

The strikeout props on both starters are the clearest supporting plays. Ashcraft's over 5.5 at -122 is backed by documented pattern and favorable BvP. Wicks' under 3.5 at +110 reflects exactly what his recent workload data tells you about his ceiling. Reynolds over 1.5 total bases at +114 is the offensive upside play in a game Pittsburgh is built to control. Manage your units accordingly, this is a medium-confidence slate with variance built in. For the full slate, see our MLB picks today, NRFI picks, and player props.