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Match Predictor
Pre-match Prediction
Milwaukee Brewers 52%Cincinnati Reds 48%
Market LinesRun Line: Milwaukee Brewers -1Total: O/U 9.5
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Model: Over 9.5
Model projects 9.5 total runs vs 9.5 line
Milwaukee Brewers
All Over 9.5
36%
27/76
MLB: 48%
Starter
50%
6/12
vs CIN
0%
0/1
Avg Total
8.9
MLB: 8.9
Game Starter (12) Last Starter vs CIN vs CIN (1)
Brandon Sproat #23 · RHP · Age 26
5.94
ERA (2026)
9.0
K/9 (2026)
12
Starts (2026)
9.9
Avg Total (2026)
Last 3:
ND CLE (Jun 17): 3.2IP, 4ER, 6K
ND @ATH (Jun 10): 6.0IP, 1ER, 3K
ND @COL (Jun 05): 5.0IP, 3ER, 2K
ND CLE (Jun 17): 3.2IP, 4ER, 6K
ND @ATH (Jun 10): 6.0IP, 1ER, 3K
ND @COL (Jun 05): 5.0IP, 3ER, 2K
vs CIN: L (Sep 07 2025): 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Bullpen (2026 Season)Average
ERA: 3.91MLB Avg: 3.959 relievers
Recent: L 2-4L 2-3L 3-4W 9-4W 2-1
Lineup vs Brandon Sproat (Career)
| Batter | Pos | PA | AVG | OPS | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noelvi Marte | RF | 3 | .500 | 1.167 | 0 |
| Sal Stewart | 1B | 3 | .000 | 0.000 | 0 |
| Matt McLain | 2B | 2 | .000 | 0.000 | 0 |
| Tyler Stephenson | C | 2 | .000 | 0.500 | 0 |
9 batters with no matchup history
Cincinnati Reds
All Over 9.5
47%
36/77
MLB: 48%
Starter
63%
5/8
vs MIL
0%
0/1
Avg Total
9.1
MLB: 8.9
Game Starter (8) Last Starter vs MIL vs MIL (1)
Nick Lodolo #40 · LHP · Age 28
6.12
ERA (2026)
6.8
K/9 (2026)
8
Starts (2026)
10.1
Avg Total (2026)
Last 3:
L NYM (Jun 17): 4.2IP, 7ER, 2K
ND ARI (Jun 12): 5.1IP, 2ER, 5K
ND @STL (Jun 06): 5.0IP, 4ER, 3K
L NYM (Jun 17): 4.2IP, 7ER, 2K
ND ARI (Jun 12): 5.1IP, 2ER, 5K
ND @STL (Jun 06): 5.0IP, 4ER, 3K
vs MIL: ND (Aug 11 2024): 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Bullpen (2026 Season)Good
ERA: 3.44MLB Avg: 3.957 relievers
⚠
Workload Alert: Allowed 9 runs on 2026-06-17 vs NYM. Bullpen arms likely still recovering.
Recent: L 1-9L 0-5W 10-2W 4-1L 1-2
Lineup vs Nick Lodolo (Career)
| Batter | Pos | PA | AVG | OPS | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Yelich | DH | 13 | .083 | 0.237 | 0 |
| Andrew Vaughn | 1B | 10 | .200 | 0.600 | 0 |
| Jackson Chourio | LF | 7 | .286 | 0.715 | 0 |
| Sal Frelick | RF | 6 | .400 | 0.900 | 0 |
| William Contreras | C | 6 | .167 | 0.500 | 0 |
| Joey Ortiz | SS | 4 | .250 | 1.250 | 1 |
| Brice Turang | 2B | 3 | .000 | 0.333 | 0 |
| Gary Sanchez | C | 3 | .500 | 1.167 | 0 |
| Blake Perkins | CF | 2 | .000 | 0.000 | 0 |
| David Hamilton | SS | 2 | .000 | 0.000 | 0 |
3 batters with no matchup history
Our Top PicksLive Odds
Top PickMilwaukee Brewers ML (-111, MEDIUM)
The market implies 52.6% for Milwaukee, and the talent gap supports that number.
PickMilwaukee Brewers -1.0 (-106, MEDIUM)
At near even money, the run line is the sharpest entry point tonight.
PickOver 9.5 (-118, LOW)
This is a lean, not a hammer.
Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds Game Preview
Tonight's matchup at Great American Ball Park tells you everything before the first pitch. Milwaukee Brewers send Brandon Sproat to the mound carrying a 5.94 ERA and 32 walks in 63.2 innings. Those command numbers are bad. But the pitcher across from him, Nick Lodolo, is in a deeper hole. The left-hander gave up 7 earned runs in 4.2 innings against the Mets in his last start and owns a 6.12 ERA in 2026. Two struggling starters at one of baseball's friendliest hitting venues is a recipe for runs early and often.
Cincinnati Reds enter at 37-40 with a minus-47 run differential and a 27-34 record against right-handed pitching this season. That matters because Sproat throws right. In tonight's MLB action, Milwaukee (47-29, plus-120 run differential, 5.2 runs per game) brings a lineup loaded with left-handed pitcher destroyers to a venue where Lodolo has no margin for error. Andrew Vaughn is hitting .349/.432/.523 with a 1.349 OPS against left-handed pitching. Jackson Chourio sits at .936 OPS vs LHP and has posted a .990 OPS over the last 28 days. Gary Sanchez is at .968 OPS against southpaws. Lodolo is walking into a gauntlet.
Great American Ball Park adds a third layer. The park plays as a top-3 HR environment with a 1.18 HR factor, and Lodolo has already surrendered 8 home runs in just 42.2 innings this year, a rate of 1.69 per nine. On the other side of the ledger, JJ Bleday has 13 home runs in 213 plate appearances and carries a .962 OPS against right-handed pitching. He faces Sproat tonight in a favorable platoon spot at that same hitter-friendly park. Milwaukee's bullpen also got a boost: Brandon Woodruff was activated from the injured list today after a shoulder injury that kept him out since April 30. As Redleg Nation reported: "The Brewers activated Brandon Woodruff from the injured list today, where he had been nursing a shoulder injury since April 30." That is a real late-inning weapon Cincinnati cannot match.
Milwaukee won Game 1 of this series 2-1 and carry a 22-14 road record. Cincinnati is trying to claw back to respectability after getting swept at home by the Mets earlier this month. The key question tonight is whether Lodolo can survive the early innings against a platoon-advantage lineup before damage becomes terminal.
Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds Key Insights
- Lodolo's last three starts: 7 ER in 4.2 IP vs the Mets, 2 ER in 5.1 IP vs Arizona, 4 ER in 5.0 IP at St. Louis. He has found no consistency in 2026, and Milwaukee's left-handed pitcher killers are the worst draw he could get.
- Andrew Vaughn (1.349 OPS vs LHP, .349/.432/.523 on the season) and Jackson Chourio (.990 OPS over the last 28 days, .936 OPS vs LHP) give Milwaukee two of the most dangerous platoon bats in baseball right now. Both of them see Lodolo as a gift.
- Christian Yelich is hitting .083 with a 0.237 OPS across 13 career plate appearances against Lodolo. That sample covers multiple seasons and keeps getting worse, with a 0.000 OPS in 4 PA against him in 2025. Milwaukee's most accomplished hitter is essentially a non-factor in this specific matchup, which tempers how lopsided the offensive advantage actually is.
- GABP's 1.18 HR factor, Lodolo's 1.69 HR/9 in 2026, and Sproat's 5.94 ERA combine to make this one of the more run-friendly pitcher pairings you will see in this park this season. The over is grounded in real numbers, not wishful thinking.
- Sproat averaged 3.67 strikeouts over his last three starts, with two of three finishing under 4.5. Lodolo averaged 3.33 over his last three, with all three finishing under 5.5. Both strikeout unders carry HIGH confidence and are the sharpest plays on this board.
- Contrarian bettors can find a legitimate case for Under 9.5 at even money. Yelich's 0.237 career OPS against Lodolo removes a key bat, Sproat held Cincinnati to 3 ER over 6.0 IP in their one prior meeting, and both bullpens are competent enough to hold late leads. The edge on the over is thin enough that the under deserves a look if your read is that both starters stabilize.
Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Picks
Picks made June 23, 2026 at 05:33 AM ET. Odds shown reflect current market prices.
Milwaukee Brewers ML (-111, MEDIUM)
Milwaukee Brewers ML (-111, MEDIUM): The market implies 52.6% for Milwaukee, and the talent gap supports that number. The Brewers are 47-29 with a plus-120 run differential and a lineup that punishes left-handed pitching. Lodolo's 6.12 ERA and Woodruff's return for bullpen depth reinforce the case. Reasonable flat bet on the better team.
Milwaukee Brewers -1.0 (-106, MEDIUM)
Milwaukee Brewers -1.0 (-106, MEDIUM): At near even money, the run line is the sharpest entry point tonight. Milwaukee averages 5.2 runs per game and the platoon advantage against Lodolo should produce early runs. The -1.5 is too aggressive given that Game 1 of this series was a 2-1 final, but -1.0 at -106 with 51.5% implied probability is well within range for the NL Central's best team.
Over 9.5 (-118, LOW)
Over 9.5 (-118, LOW): This is a lean, not a hammer. The line exactly matches the market consensus, so there is no statistical edge jumping out. What tips it over: GABP's 1.18 HR factor, two starters posting above 5.90 ERAs in 2026, and Milwaukee's lineup depth. If Lodolo implodes early the way he did against the Mets, this clears fast. Treat it as a park-and-pitcher play rather than a conviction bet, and size accordingly.
Brandon Sproat Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115, HIGH)
Brandon Sproat Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115, HIGH): Sproat averaged 3.67 strikeouts across his last three starts, with two of three finishing under 4.5. The outlier, a 6-K outing, came in only 3.2 innings before a blowout exit, not a sign of sustained strikeout pace. His 32 walks in 63.2 innings says this is a contact-management pitcher, not a swing-and-miss arm. The outs line at 14.5 signals that a short outing is well within range, which structurally caps the ceiling. High confidence.
Nick Lodolo Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-145, HIGH)
Nick Lodolo Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-145, HIGH): Lodolo's last three starts averaged 3.33 strikeouts, and all three finished under 5.5. His 2026 K/9 sits near 6.75 across 42.2 innings and is trending down from his 2025 pace. Milwaukee hits .254 with a .728 OPS and does not give away plate appearances. The outs line set at 15.5 is a structural ceiling, meaning Lodolo needs to be both efficient and sharp to reach 5.5 Ks. The market's +102 on the over is essentially the market saying it does not believe him either. Pay the juice at -145 and take the under.
Christian Yelich Under 1.5 Hits (-213, MEDIUM)
Christian Yelich Under 1.5 Hits (-213, MEDIUM): Yelich is 1-for-12 with a 0.237 OPS across 13 career plate appearances against Lodolo. His 2025 split against Lodolo: 4 PA, 0.000 OPS. That pattern runs across multiple seasons and keeps reinforcing itself. Yes, -213 is heavily juiced, but the matchup data here is unusually clean and consistent. Yelich hits left-handed pitching at a .731 OPS on the season, below his marks against righties, which layers on top of the specific career suppression. Size this modestly given the price, but the signal is legitimate.
Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 Hits (+122, MEDIUM)
Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 Hits (+122, MEDIUM): Chourio is the best value play on this slate. He is posting a .990 OPS over the last 28 days, hitting .294 on the season, and owns a 1.250 OPS in his 2025 plate appearances against Lodolo (4 PA, small sample but directionally strong). GABP's 1.08 runs factor boosts contact value, and Lodolo's 6.12 ERA makes him hittable. Getting plus money at +122 on the hottest bat in Milwaukee's lineup against a struggling starter is exactly the kind of value the edge is built on.
JJ Bleday to Hit a Home Run (+295, LOW)
JJ Bleday to Hit a Home Run (+295, LOW): Bleday has 13 home runs in 213 plate appearances, roughly one every 16 at-bats. He faces right-handed Brandon Sproat tonight, and his .962 OPS against right-handed pitching is one of the stronger marks in Cincinnati's lineup. GABP's 1.18 HR factor is the final piece. Sproat has allowed 13 home runs in 63.2 innings this year, a rate that pairs with the park to keep power threats relevant. The market implies 25.3% at +295. This is a speculative play based on park context, pace, and platoon alignment. Keep the unit size small.
5-Leg SGP (MEDIUM thesis)
5-Leg SGP (MEDIUM thesis): Milwaukee ML (-111, contract 410270504) + Over 9.5 (-118, contract 410270933) + Sproat Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115, contract 410336382) + Lodolo Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-145, contract 410336262) + Chourio Over 1.5 Hits (+122, contract 410336341). The internal logic is tight: both strikeout unders point to a contact-heavy environment where pitchers get hit, which directly feeds the Over 9.5. Milwaukee winning that run-heavy game means Chourio gets extended looks against a hittable Lodolo, linking the team result to the player prop. Each leg reinforces the others. Build this in small units.
Analysis insight — no specific bet associated
Key Players
Batting AverageMIL
William Contreras
.295Batting Average
C
Home RunsMIL
Jake Bauers
13Home Runs
1B
Runs Batted InMIL
Brice Turang
47Runs Batted In
2B
Earned Run AverageMIL
Jacob Misiorowski
1.45Earned Run Average
SP
WinsMIL
Aaron Ashby
10Wins
RP
StrikeoutsMIL
Jacob Misiorowski
138Strikeouts
SP
Batting AverageCIN
Elly De La Cruz
.280Batting Average
SS
Home RunsCIN
Sal Stewart
14Home Runs
1B
Runs Batted InCIN
Sal Stewart
54Runs Batted In
1B
Earned Run AverageCIN
Chase Burns
2.00Earned Run Average
SP
WinsCIN
Chase Burns
9Wins
SP
StrikeoutsCIN
Chase Burns
102Strikeouts
SP
Recent Form
Milwaukee Brewers
L4-2Cleveland Guardians
L3-2Atlanta Braves
L4-3Atlanta Braves
W9-4Atlanta Braves
Cincinnati Reds
L9-1New York Mets
L5-0New York Yankees
W10-2New York Yankees
W4-1New York Yankees
Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds Summary
Milwaukee is the better team by every meaningful measure tonight. They have the platoon advantage, the bullpen depth with Woodruff back, and the opponent starter situation squarely in their favor. With no model score projection available for this game, the read comes directly from the matchup data: Lodolo's 6.12 ERA, GABP's 1.18 HR factor, and Milwaukee's LHP-killing lineup are the three pillars. The Milwaukee ML at -111 is the main bet. The -1.0 run line at -106 is the sharpest entry if you want to press the value. The two strikeout unders are the highest-confidence plays on this slate, both starters have been consistently finishing below their lines in recent starts, and the contact environment those numbers imply flows naturally into the Over 9.5 lean.
The honest caveat is Yelich. His 0.237 career OPS against Lodolo across 13 plate appearances is not a small-sample fluke. It removes Milwaukee's most established hitter from the offensive equation, which means the platoon advantage lives or dies on Chourio, Vaughn, and Sanchez delivering. Cincinnati's bullpen at 3.44 ERA is also sharper than Milwaukee's 3.91 mark, which matters if the game tightens late. The Over 9.5 is LOW confidence for real reasons. Lead with the strikeout unders, follow with the Brewers ML, and treat the rest as supplemental. Baseball always has variance built in, and a game between two command-challenged starters at a hitter's park is exactly where unexpected outcomes happen.
For the full slate, see our MLB picks today, NRFI picks, and player props.
Head-to-Head History
Season SeriesMIL leads series 1-0
| Date | Matchup | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 22, 2026 | MIL @ CIN | MILMIL 2-1 |
Compare odds for MIL @ CIN
Frequently Asked Questions
