Milwaukee Brewers right-hander Dustin May (6-9, 4.69 ERA) carries his own red flag into this one. His most recent start required 97 pitches to record just 13 outs. As one reporter noted, "he allowed four earned runs in 4.1 innings, needing 97 pitches to record those 13 outs." The Brewers need a reset outing. There is reason to believe May can find it against this specific opponent. He has struck out 12 batters across 10 combined innings in his two 2026 starts against Cincinnati while allowing just 2 earned runs. Opponent-specific history matters, and May owns Cincinnati in a way his season numbers do not reflect. Whether his pitch count cooperates is the real question.

The lineup matchups tilt hard toward Milwaukee in tonight's MLB action. Jackson Chourio owns a 1.670 OPS and 2 home runs in 11 career plate appearances against Abbott, the single most dominant individual career matchup in this game. Brice Turang has posted a 1.200 OPS in 12 career PA against the lefty, with success trending upward each season: 0.500 OPS in 2024, 1.600 in 2025, 1.667 in 2026. William Contreras adds 0.833 OPS in 21 career PA. Great American Ball Park amplifies all of it. The park carries an HR factor of 1.18, placing it among the top three in baseball. Abbott has already surrendered 21 home runs in 148.1 innings this season at a rate of 1.27 per nine, and his walk rate means Brewers hitters will see plenty of favorable counts.

Cincinnati's best counter-punch against May comes from Suarez, who carries a 1.222 OPS in 9 career PA against the right-hander including 1 home run. Elly De La Cruz adds firepower with a 1.060 OPS over the last seven days and 21 home runs on the season. The Reds are 34-38 at home and have gone 2-8 against Milwaukee across the last 10 head-to-head matchups. The model offers no directional lean on the total, meaning the numbers alone do not push either direction. What does push this game toward a high-scoring finish: Abbott's near-certain early exit, both bullpens already taxed from yesterday's 10-7 Game 1, and GABP's park factors rewarding exactly the kind of power in Milwaukee's lineup.

• Abbott's walk rate of 70 BB in 148.1 IP is the core problem. Milwaukee's lineup is patient and deep. A pitcher who cannot locate creates extended at-bats, big-count situations, and multi-run innings. The conditions for an early blowup are set.
• May's pitch inefficiency is real and cannot be ignored: 97 pitches for 13 outs last time out. But in his two 2026 starts against this exact Cincinnati lineup, he struck out 12 in 10 innings and allowed just 2 earned runs. Opponent-specific form is the key variable here.
• Chourio at +300 to hit a home run is the most compelling prop on the board. A 1.670 career OPS in 11 PA against Abbott, 21 home runs on the season, and a park with a 1.18 HR factor. The implied 25% probability looks low given all three factors pointing the same direction.
• Both bullpens carried heavy workloads in yesterday's 17-run game. If either starter exits before the fifth, the back ends take over in a high-run environment. Milwaukee's bullpen (3.36 ERA) is significantly better than Cincinnati's (4.39 ERA), and that gap compounds late.
• Milwaukee is 41-29 on the road and has gone 8-2 against Cincinnati in the last 10 meetings. The Brewers are 88-54 overall with a +174 run differential. This is the best team in baseball playing an opponent they have dominated all season.
• Spencer Steer remains sidelined with a wrist injury and will not play this series. His absence removes a power bat from a Reds lineup that needs every run it can generate against one of the deepest pitching organizations in the game.

The contrarian angle worth respecting on the total: both bullpens are taxed, GABP is one of the best hitter's parks in baseball, and these two teams just combined for 17 runs in Game 1. The model offers no lean on the total, which keeps this pick at low confidence. But the conditions for scoring exist on both sides. The Reds' best chance to get into this game is Suarez and Cruz generating offense against May early before the Brewers' superior bullpen takes over. As one beat writer put it, the Brewers' staff needs May "to get back to where he was from Aug. 6-12 when he threw back-to-back gems." Until that happens, his strikeout ceiling is capped.

The caveat is May's efficiency. If he repeats the 97-pitch pattern from his last outing, this game stays closer than the matchup data suggests. A short May outing lets Cincinnati hang around, and the Reds have shown they can score in bunches at home. Milwaukee still wins in that scenario, but the run line coverage becomes less certain. Bet the Brewers to win. Respect the variance everywhere else. For the full slate, see our MLB picks today, NRFI picks, and player props.