We're having some technical issues.
Please come back later to see the best odds for today's games here.
Please come back later to see the best odds for today's games here.
Match Predictor
Pre-match Prediction
Cincinnati Reds 42%Arizona Diamondbacks 58%
Market LinesRun Line: Arizona Diamondbacks -1Total: O/U 8
↓
Model: Under 8
Model projects 7.7 total runs vs 8 line
Cincinnati Reds
All Over 8
55%
70/128
MLB: 48%
Starter
57%
8/14
vs ARI
0%
0/3
Avg Total
8.9
MLB: 8.9
Game Starter (14) Last Starter vs ARI vs ARI (3)
Nick Lodolo #40 · LHP · Age 28
4.52
ERA (2026)
7.2
K/9 (2026)
14
Starts (2026)
8.6
Avg Total (2026)
Last 3:
ND MIA (Aug 16): 5.0IP, 0ER, 2K
ND @CHW (Aug 11): 4.0IP, 4ER, 5K
ND CHC (Jul 11): 5.0IP, 2ER, 4K
ND MIA (Aug 16): 5.0IP, 0ER, 2K
ND @CHW (Aug 11): 4.0IP, 4ER, 5K
ND CHC (Jul 11): 5.0IP, 2ER, 4K
vs ARI: ND (Jun 06 2025): 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Bullpen (2026 Season)Average
ERA: 4.22MLB Avg: 3.959 relievers
⚠
Workload Alert: Allowed 10 runs on 2026-08-20 vs STL. Bullpen arms likely still recovering.
Recent: L 1-2W 6-5L 0-3W 5-4L 9-10
Lineup vs Nick Lodolo (Career)
| Batter | Pos | PA | AVG | OPS | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ildemaro Vargas | 1B | 11 | .200 | 0.773 | 1 |
| Nolan Arenado | 3B | 8 | .000 | 0.000 | 0 |
| Geraldo Perdomo | SS | 6 | .333 | 1.166 | 1 |
| Gabriel Moreno | C | 5 | .200 | 0.600 | 0 |
| Corbin Carroll | RF | 3 | .500 | 1.167 | 0 |
| Jordan Lawlar | LF | 3 | .000 | 0.333 | 0 |
| James McCann | C | 2 | .000 | 0.000 | 0 |
| Lars Nootbaar | LF | 2 | .000 | 0.000 | 0 |
| Ryan Waldschmidt | CF | 2 | .000 | 0.000 | 0 |
| Tim Tawa | 1B | 2 | .1000 | 2.000 | 0 |
3 batters with no matchup history
Arizona Diamondbacks
All Over 8
48%
61/128
MLB: 48%
Starter
40%
10/25
vs CIN
0%
0/3
Avg Total
9.0
MLB: 8.9
Game Starter (25) Last Starter vs CIN vs CIN (3)
Eduardo Rodriguez #57 · LHP · Age 33
2.71
ERA (2026)
6.4
K/9 (2026)
25
Starts (2026)
8.2
Avg Total (2026)
Last 3:
W @ATL (Aug 15): 6.0IP, 2ER, 5K
W LAD (Aug 09): 7.0IP, 2ER, 9K
L SD (Aug 04): 5.2IP, 5ER, 4K
W @ATL (Aug 15): 6.0IP, 2ER, 5K
W LAD (Aug 09): 7.0IP, 2ER, 9K
L SD (Aug 04): 5.2IP, 5ER, 4K
vs CIN: ND (Jun 06 2025): 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Bullpen (2026 Season)Average
ERA: 3.69MLB Avg: 3.959 relievers
⚠
Workload Alert: Allowed 11 runs on 2026-08-17 vs BOS. Bullpen arms likely still recovering.
Recent: W 10-3L 3-5L 1-11L 4-9W 7-6
Lineup vs Eduardo Rodriguez (Career)
| Batter | Pos | PA | AVG | OPS | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eugenio Suarez | DH | 12 | .200 | 0.533 | 0 |
| Jose Trevino | C | 9 | .222 | 0.444 | 0 |
| Dane Myers | CF | 8 | .000 | 0.375 | 0 |
| JJ Bleday | LF | 6 | .400 | 0.900 | 0 |
| Bryan Hayes | 3B | 6 | .000 | 0.000 | 0 |
| Michael Toglia | 1B | 5 | .250 | 0.900 | 0 |
| TJ Friedl | CF | 5 | .750 | 2.750 | 1 |
| Tyler Stephenson | C | 4 | .000 | 0.000 | 0 |
| Matt McLain | 2B | 3 | .333 | 0.666 | 0 |
| Sal Stewart | 1B | 2 | .000 | 0.000 | 0 |
3 batters with no matchup history
Our Top PicksLive Odds
Top PickArizona Diamondbacks ML -147 (MEDIUM). T
Arizona Diamondbacks ML -147 (MEDIUM). The market implies 59.5% probability for Arizona, and the pitching matchup justifies that number. Rodriguez at ...
PickCincinnati Reds +1.5 Run Line -179 (MEDI
Cincinnati Reds +1.5 Run Line -179 (MEDIUM). Our model points directionally to a close game, and there is enough variance to keep the Reds within a ru...
PickUnder 8.0 Total Runs -108 (LOW). Our mod
Under 8.0 Total Runs -108 (LOW). Our model aligns directionally with the market line at 8.0, leaving this as a marginal lean rather than a strong play...
Cincinnati Reds vs Arizona Diamondbacks Game Preview
Eduardo Rodriguez is posting the best numbers of his career, and tonight he takes the mound at home in the most compelling pitching matchup on tonight's MLB slate. The 33-year-old lefty enters at 12-4 with a 2.71 ERA and 149.1 innings of work in 2026, a dramatic turnaround from the 5.02 ERA he posted just one year ago. His command is real: 47 walks in 149.1 innings is the mark of a pitcher who has found a repeatable delivery. He faces Nick Lodolo, who is operating at a 4.52 ERA in 71.2 innings this season and has been pulled before completing five innings in two of his last three outings. The gap between these two starters is the defining angle in this game.
Arizona Diamondbacks come into this series opener 21-11 against left-handed pitchers in 2026, one of the better splits against that handedness in the league. Cincinnati Reds, by contrast, are 13-15 against lefties this year. The platoon advantage runs entirely through Arizona's lineup tonight, not Cincinnati's, and that structural edge does not show up cleanly in the raw moneyline. Corbin Carroll is the player who benefits most. He carries a .987 OPS against lefties this season, an L7d OPS of 1.026, and in three plate appearances against Lodolo in 2026, he has hit .500 with a 1.167 OPS. That is the wrong bat for a short-outing lefty to face in a ballpark that inflates home runs by a factor of 1.08.
The unavoidable story is Ketel Marte. Arizona's All-Star second baseman is on the 10-day IL after an MRI revealed knee and hamstring inflammation. He had been producing a .760 OPS with 21 home runs this season. Lovullo tried to keep the tone measured when asked about the situation, saying: "Just care for him and love him. I love him and I care for him. He is fine, I want you guys to know that." Losing a bat of that quality mid-season is a real adjustment, and it creates depth questions for the Diamondbacks going forward. For tonight specifically, the pitching matchup tilt is wide enough to absorb it.
Cincinnati arrives having dropped a 9-10 gut-punch to St. Louis in its final game before this road trip, and enters at 4-6 over its last 10. The Reds' away record sits at 29-31 on the year. Chase Field plays as a mild hitter's park with a 1.04 runs factor. That is not the type of extreme environment that punishes or rewards a starter beyond their actual ability. Lodolo's 4.52 ERA will be what it is here. If he exits early, which his recent pattern suggests is likely, Arizona's 3.69-ERA bullpen is well-positioned to protect a lead through the final innings of game 1.
Cincinnati Reds vs Arizona Diamondbacks Key Insights
- Eduardo Rodriguez is on six days of extended rest with a career-best 2.71 ERA and 12-4 record. Arizona is 36-27 at Chase Field this season and 21-11 against left-handed pitchers, meaning the home crowd and platoon advantage both favor the Diamondbacks tonight.
- Nick Lodolo has exited by the 5th inning in two of his last three starts. His last three outings: 2K in 5.0 IP, 5K in 4.0 IP, 4K in 5.0 IP. If he follows that pattern, Arizona's LHP-masher lineup does not get multiple trips through the order against him.
- Nolan Arenado is 0-for-8 lifetime against Lodolo with a 0.000 OPS across 2022, 2024, and 2026. That is not an early-career matchup or a single bad game. It is a sustained pattern across multiple seasons that his current .806 OPS vs LHP does not override for this specific pitcher.
- TJ Friedl carries a 2.750 OPS in 5 career plate appearances against Rodriguez (3.000 OPS in 2023, 2.500 OPS in 2025), making him the most dangerous individual matchup Cincinnati sends to the plate against the Arizona starter. His 2026 season numbers have been rough overall, but the career BvP line is the sharpest contrarian signal in this game.
- Both bullpens enter fresh for game 1 of a series, but Arizona's relief corps at 3.69 ERA holds a meaningful edge over Cincinnati's at 4.22 ERA. If either starter exits early, the bullpen advantage belongs to the home side.
- Marte's IL placement removes a .760 OPS, 21-HR producer from Arizona's lineup. For tonight, the E-Rod vs. Lodolo gap on the mound is wide enough to limit the damage from a single absence.
Cincinnati Reds vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Picks
Picks made August 21, 2026 at 05:29 AM ET. Odds shown reflect current market prices.
Arizona Diamondbacks ML -147 (MEDIUM). T
Arizona Diamondbacks ML -147 (MEDIUM). The market implies 59.5% probability for Arizona, and the pitching matchup justifies that number. Rodriguez at home with a 2.71 ERA against a Cincinnati lineup that is 13-15 vs lefties this year is a structural edge. Lodolo's 4.52 ERA and pattern of early exits make Cincinnati's side fragile. Marte's absence is real, but one lineup change does not flip a rotation matchup this lopsided. Play the Diamondbacks.
Cincinnati Reds +1.5 Run Line -179 (MEDI
Cincinnati Reds +1.5 Run Line -179 (MEDIUM). Our model points directionally to a close game, and there is enough variance to keep the Reds within a run even in a loss. Rodriguez's lone 2026 appearance against this Cincinnati lineup lasted just 2.2 innings, showing the floor on his form against this specific opponent. Arizona is 22-18 in one-run games, not the type of blowout team that covers -1.5 comfortably. Reds +1.5 pairs naturally with the Arizona ML as a hedge against a tight final score.
Under 8.0 Total Runs -108 (LOW). Our mod
Under 8.0 Total Runs -108 (LOW). Our model aligns directionally with the market line at 8.0, leaving this as a marginal lean rather than a strong play. Rodriguez's 2.71 ERA provides legitimate run suppression on the Arizona half of the game. Lodolo's 4.52 ERA and leaky recent outings push the other direction. The Under is the lean based on E-Rod's half of this game, but the low confidence rating is appropriate. Size this one down.
Nolan Arenado Under 0.5 Hits +142 (HIGH)
Nolan Arenado Under 0.5 Hits +142 (HIGH). This is the cleanest prop on the board. Arenado is 0-for-8 against Lodolo with a 0.000 OPS across three separate seasons: 2022, 2024, and 2026. That is multiple looks at the same pitcher over years, with zero contact to show for it. His .806 OPS against lefties this season does not explain away a career-long inability to touch this specific arm. Under 0.5 hits at +142 implies only 41.3% probability for the Under. The sustained BvP record says it should be considerably higher. Best prop in this game.
Tyler Stephenson Under 0.5 Hits +134 (ME
Tyler Stephenson Under 0.5 Hits +134 (MEDIUM). Stephenson is 0-for-4 against Rodriguez in recent looks: 3 PA in 2025 at 0.000 OPS and 1 PA in 2026 at 0.000 OPS. This is not old data. Rodriguez is posting a 2.71 ERA with controlled command this season. Stephenson's .239/.323/.404 season line is workable, but the specific futility against this lefty in recent seasons is the relevant signal. Under 0.5 hits at +134 implies only 42.7% probability for the Under, which underprices what the BvP trend shows.
Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 Total Bases +108
Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 Total Bases +108 (MEDIUM). Carroll is the lone Arizona over prop worth playing, and the data is consistent. He hits lefties at a .987 OPS this season, compared to .756 against righties. His L7d OPS is 1.026, the best mark on the team. Against Lodolo in 2026, he is 3-for-3 with a 1.167 OPS. Chase Field inflates home runs by 1.08, and Carroll has 18 on the year. Over 1.5 total bases at +108 has multiple paths to a win: a hit plus a run, a double, a homer. This is positive expected value when the best bat in the lineup faces a lefty he already owns.
Eduardo Rodriguez Under 5.5 Strikeouts -
Eduardo Rodriguez Under 5.5 Strikeouts -132 (MEDIUM). Rodriguez's 2026 K/9 of 6.39 projects to roughly 4 to 5 strikeouts in a typical 6-inning start, well short of 5.5. His last three outings: 5K in 6.0 IP, 9K in 7.0 IP, 4K in 5.2 IP. He cleared 5.5 only in the 7-inning outing. Two prior starts against Cincinnati: 3K in 2.2 IP in June 2026 and 3K in 5.0 IP in June 2025. He has never posted 5.5 strikeouts against this lineup across either appearance. The -132 price reflects market awareness of the lean, but the Cincinnati-specific track record makes this sound even at the juice.
Nick Lodolo Under 3.5 Strikeouts +104 (MEDIUM). Lodolo's last three starts
Nick Lodolo Under 3.5 Strikeouts +104 (MEDIUM). Lodolo's last three starts: 2K, 5K, and 4K in outings capped at 4 to 5 innings. His 3-start average of 3.67 K sits right at the borderline, with a 2K floor that shows how short this can run. Arizona's lineup is 21-11 against lefties this season. His prior Arizona starts: 5K in 5.1 IP in June 2026 and 4K in 6.0 IP in June 2025, both requiring length he has not been reaching this month. Under 3.5 at +104 pays better than even money on a realistic outcome. The edge does not care what sport you are watching. A pitcher trending short is a pitcher trending short.
SGP
SGP: Arizona ML + Under 8.0 + Carroll Total Bases Over 1.5 + Arenado Hits Under 0.5. These four legs follow a single game script. Rodriguez controls the game, Arizona wins it close, the total stays suppressed, Carroll does damage as the primary offensive weapon, and Arenado makes no contact against a pitcher who has never gotten him out with any difficulty. The legs reinforce each other rather than pulling in opposite directions. No model projection is available for parlay markets, but the underlying matchup logic is consistent across all four individual selections.
Analysis insight — no specific bet associated
Key Players
Batting AverageCIN
Elly De La Cruz
.259Batting Average
SS
Home RunsCIN
Sal Stewart
27Home Runs
1B
Runs Batted InCIN
Sal Stewart
96Runs Batted In
1B
Earned Run AverageCIN
Chase Burns
2.51Earned Run Average
SP
WinsCIN
Chase Burns
14Wins
SP
StrikeoutsCIN
Chase Burns
159Strikeouts
SP
Batting AverageARI
Gabriel Moreno
.307Batting Average
C
Home RunsARI
Ketel Marte
21Home Runs
2B
Runs Batted InARI
Ketel Marte
67Runs Batted In
2B
Earned Run AverageARI
Eduardo Rodriguez
2.71Earned Run Average
SP
WinsARI
Eduardo Rodriguez
12Wins
SP
StrikeoutsARI
Eduardo Rodriguez
106Strikeouts
SP
Recent Form
Cincinnati Reds
L2-1St. Louis Cardinals
L3-0St. Louis Cardinals
W5-4St. Louis Cardinals
L10-9St. Louis Cardinals
Arizona Diamondbacks
W10-3Atlanta Braves
L5-3Atlanta Braves
L11-1Boston Red Sox
L9-4Boston Red Sox
Cincinnati Reds vs Arizona Diamondbacks Summary
The pitching matchup is the pick. Rodriguez at home with a 2.71 ERA against a lineup that hits lefties at a 13-15 clip is the type of structural edge that holds regardless of one player's IL placement. Lodolo's 4.52 ERA and recent pattern of short outings make Cincinnati's side of this game the more fragile one. Our model aligns directionally with the 8.0 market line, and the lean is Under given Rodriguez's genuine run-suppression ability on the Arizona half of the game. The best individual play on this board is Carroll over 1.5 total bases at +108. A .987 OPS vs LHP, a 1.026 OPS over the last seven days, and a 1.167 OPS against tonight's opposing starter, all at a park that inflates home runs. That is value at better than even money with multiple ways to cash.
The contrarian case for Cincinnati at +132 deserves an honest look. Marte's .760 OPS is gone from the lineup for this series. Rodriguez's June 2026 outing against this specific Reds team lasted just 2.2 innings. Friedl carries a 2.750 OPS in 5 career at-bats against E-Rod, the kind of BvP number that can quietly burn a bettor who overlooks it. I side with Arizona because 149.1 innings of a career-best ERA outweighs one volatile outing, and the platoon advantage running entirely through Arizona's lineup is a structural edge the +132 price does not fully compensate for. The Reds +1.5 at -179 is the play that covers the variance. If Cincinnati keeps it close, which is realistic, the run line cashes alongside the ML.
For the full slate, see our MLB picks today, NRFI picks, and player props.
Head-to-Head History
Season SeriesSeries tied 1-1
| Date | Matchup | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 08, 2026 | ARI @ CIN | CINCIN 13-4 |
| Mar 16, 2026 | CIN @ ARI | ARIARI 11-6 |
Reds vs Diamondbacks predictions: Rodriguez (2.71 ERA) leads Arizona ML -147. Best prop: Corbin Carroll over 1.5 total bases at +108 tonight.
Frequently Asked Questions
