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Match Predictor
Pre-match Prediction
Colorado Rockies 40%St. Louis Cardinals 60%
Market LinesRun Line: St. Louis Cardinals -1Total: O/U 9.5
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Model: Under 9.5
Model projects 9.0 total runs vs 9.5 line
Colorado Rockies
Bullpen ERA 5.67 (poor). Late innings could add runs.
All Over 9.5
54%
63/117
MLB: 48%
Starter
65%
15/23
vs STL
50%
1/2
Avg Total
10.6
MLB: 8.9
Game Starter (23) Last Starter vs STL vs STL (2)
Michael Lorenzen #24 · RHP · Age 34
6.94
ERA (2026)
6.7
K/9 (2026)
23
Starts (2026)
11.6
Avg Total (2026)
Last 3:
L TB (Aug 03): 3.0IP, 7ER, 0K
ND @SD (Jul 28): 4.0IP, 3ER, 2K
ND WSH (Jul 21): 3.2IP, 6ER, 5K
L TB (Aug 03): 3.0IP, 7ER, 0K
ND @SD (Jul 28): 4.0IP, 3ER, 2K
ND WSH (Jul 21): 3.2IP, 6ER, 5K
vs STL: ND (Aug 09 2024): 4.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Bullpen (2026 Season)Poor
ERA: 5.67MLB Avg: 3.9510 relievers
⚠
Workload Alert: Allowed 13 runs on 2026-08-03 vs TB. Bullpen arms likely still recovering.
Recent: L 9-13L 7-9L 0-4L 2-3W 8-6
Lineup vs Michael Lorenzen (Career)
| Batter | Pos | PA | AVG | OPS | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson | 1B | 5 | .800 | 2.800 | 2 |
| Masyn Winn | SS | 5 | .250 | 0.650 | 0 |
| Ivan Herrera | DH | 2 | .000 | 0.000 | 0 |
10 batters with no matchup history
St. Louis Cardinals
All Over 9.5
34%
40/117
MLB: 48%
Starter
27%
6/22
vs COL
50%
1/2
Avg Total
8.8
MLB: 8.9
Game Starter (22) Last Starter vs COL vs COL (2)
Michael McGreevy #36 · RHP · Age 26
3.59
ERA (2026)
6.1
K/9 (2026)
22
Starts (2026)
8.3
Avg Total (2026)
Last 3:
ND @NYY (Aug 03): 4.1IP, 2ER, 5K
L CHC (Jul 28): 1.2IP, 7ER, 2K
L ARI (Jul 23): 6.1IP, 4ER, 3K
ND @NYY (Aug 03): 4.1IP, 2ER, 5K
L CHC (Jul 28): 1.2IP, 7ER, 2K
L ARI (Jul 23): 6.1IP, 4ER, 3K
vs COL: ND (Sep 24 2024): 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Bullpen (2026 Season)Average
ERA: 3.78MLB Avg: 3.959 relievers
⚠
Workload Alert: Allowed 8 runs on 2026-08-08 vs COL. Bullpen arms likely still recovering.
Recent: W 13-7L 0-2W 3-1W 3-2L 6-8
Lineup vs Michael McGreevy (Career)
| Batter | Pos | PA | AVG | OPS | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezequiel Tovar | SS | 9 | .125 | 0.250 | 0 |
| Jordan Beck | LF | 8 | .125 | 0.250 | 0 |
| Mickey Moniak | LF | 6 | .667 | 1.834 | 1 |
| Hunter Goodman | C | 3 | .333 | 0.666 | 0 |
| Tyler Freeman | RF | 3 | .333 | 0.666 | 0 |
| Willi Castro | 2B | 3 | .000 | 0.000 | 0 |
| Kyle Karros | 3B | 2 | .500 | 1.000 | 0 |
| Troy Johnston | RF | 2 | .000 | 0.000 | 0 |
5 batters with no matchup history
Our Top PicksLive Odds
Top PickSt. Louis Cardinals ML (-179, MEDIUM confidence)
Lorenzen has not cleared four innings in three straight starts, and the Cardinals are at home with Burleson waiting.
PickColorado Rockies +1.5 (-152, MEDIUM confidence)
Taking the Cardinals on the moneyline and the Rockies on the run line is not a contradiction.
PickOver 9.5 (+106, LOW confidence)
The model aligns directionally with the 9.5 line, so the structural edge is thin, and LOW confidence is the honest label.
Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis Cardinals Game Preview
There are days when the pitching matchup tells you everything before the first pitch lands. Sunday's series finale at Busch Stadium is one of those days. Colorado Rockies right-hander Michael Lorenzen arrives with a 6.94 ERA, 43 walks in 107.2 innings, and three consecutive starts where he never cleared the fourth inning. His last three outings: 7 earned in 3 innings against Tampa Bay with zero strikeouts, 3 earned in 4 innings against San Diego, and 6 earned in 3.2 innings against Washington. That is 16 earned runs in 10.2 innings of work. Command issues at this frequency are not a blip. They are a structural collapse.
St. Louis Cardinals counter with Michael McGreevy, whose 3.59 ERA looks clean on paper but carries its own floor risk. Two starts ago, McGreevy lasted 1.2 innings against Chicago and allowed 7 earned runs. His 2026 strikeout rate is just 6.1 per nine innings across 120.1 innings, ranking well below rotation average. He is entirely reliant on contact management and sequencing. That is a fragile profile facing a Colorado lineup hitting .256 as a team, with Jake McCarthy posting a 1.353 OPS over his last seven days and Hunter Goodman at 33 home runs on the season. Busch Stadium runs at a 0.98 runs factor and a 0.95 home run factor, which tilts slightly toward pitchers, but that suppressor is marginal. It does not protect a low-strikeout starter from a lineup built to put the ball in play.
The batter-versus-pitcher angle that shapes this game most directly: Alec Burleson owns a 2.800 OPS in 5 career plate appearances against Lorenzen, with 2 home runs already on the ledger. His 2026 OPS against right-handed pitching sits at .960, among the best in the Cardinals lineup. On the Colorado side, Mickey Moniak is 4-for-6 with a 1.834 OPS in career plate appearances against McGreevy, all logged in 2025, making this a recent-vintage signal rather than ancient sample noise. Both edges show up in the props market and in the way this game is likely to flow once the lineup cards are posted.
Context seals the picture. Both clubs played a night game Saturday, Colorado winning 8-6, so bullpens on both sides have already absorbed meaningful innings entering this 2:15 ET start. Series finales with back-to-back scheduling and taxed relief corps tend to accumulate runs, particularly when neither starter has a high strikeout ceiling to mask hard contact. In MLB action this season, Busch Stadium is a mild suppressor, not a structural one. It is not Petco or Oracle Park. The environment here does not bail out bad pitching.
Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis Cardinals Key Insights
- Lorenzen has failed to complete four innings in each of his last three starts, allowing 16 total earned runs in 10.2 innings. The Cardinals lineup, anchored by Burleson against a pitcher losing the strike zone, has a realistic path to chasing him before most batters have seen him twice.
- McGreevy's K/9 of 6.1 in 2026 is well below rotation average, meaning he needs contact management to work. Colorado hits .256 as a team with McCarthy at a 1.353 OPS over the last seven days, Goodman at 33 home runs, and Moniak with a career .667 average against today's starter. This lineup makes contact.
- Alec Burleson owns a 2.800 OPS against Lorenzen in 5 career plate appearances with 2 home runs. His .960 OPS versus right-handers in 2026 reinforces the career data as the clearest batter-versus-pitcher edge in this matchup set.
- Mickey Moniak is 4-for-6 (.667 AVG, 1.834 OPS, 1 HR) in career plate appearances against McGreevy, all in 2025. His .948 OPS versus right-handers this season makes him one of Colorado's most dangerous bats today against the home starter.
- Both bullpens are taxed after Saturday night's 8-6 contest. The Cardinals carry a 3.78 bullpen ERA, which provides a floor, but volume and sequencing concerns in a back-to-back series finale add meaningful uncertainty to the late innings.
- Ezequiel Tovar is 1-for-8 (.125 AVG, 0.250 OPS) in 9 career plate appearances against McGreevy, the largest Colorado batter sample against today's starter and the weakest result across the board. His .574 OPS versus right-handers in 2026 reinforces the cold career read.
Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Picks
Picks made August 09, 2026 at 05:36 AM ET. Odds shown reflect current market prices.
St. Louis Cardinals ML (-179, MEDIUM confidence)
St. Louis Cardinals ML (-179, MEDIUM confidence): Lorenzen has not cleared four innings in three straight starts, and the Cardinals are at home with Burleson waiting. The market implies 64.1% probability for St. Louis, which is roughly in line with the lineup mismatch and park context. When a starter is walking batters at Lorenzen's rate and getting pulled before the fifth inning routinely, the home team with a clear matchup advantage should win. Cardinals are the right side here.
Colorado Rockies +1.5 (-152, MEDIUM confidence)
Colorado Rockies +1.5 (-152, MEDIUM confidence): Taking the Cardinals on the moneyline and the Rockies on the run line is not a contradiction. It is the correct read on a volatile pitching matchup where McGreevy's floor risk is real, his 7 earned runs in 1.2 innings against Chicago two starts ago showed exactly what can happen, and Colorado's offense with McCarthy, Goodman, and Moniak is live enough to stay close. The predicted game flow has Colorado scoring four runs. The +1.5 cushion is valuable insurance in a spot where both starters can implode early.
Over 9.5 (+106, LOW confidence)
Over 9.5 (+106, LOW confidence): The model aligns directionally with the 9.5 line, so the structural edge is thin, and LOW confidence is the honest label. But the qualitative case builds toward the over. Lorenzen's 6.94 ERA and McGreevy's recent 7-earned implosion, combined with both bullpens having pitched Saturday night in an 8-6 game, create the exact conditions where totals play higher than the line. The plus-money price is what makes a small ticket worth it here.
Michael McGreevy Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-154, HIGH confidence)
Michael McGreevy Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-154, HIGH confidence): McGreevy has recorded 81 strikeouts across 120.1 innings in 2026, averaging 3.7 per start. His last three outings: 5 K in 4.1 innings, 2 K in 1.2 innings, 3 K in 6.1 innings. In his three career starts against Colorado, he has posted 2 K, 1 K, and 5 K. Two of those three produced 2 or fewer strikeouts. The implied probability on this line is 60.6%, but McGreevy's actual 2026 frequency points well above that. This is the highest-confidence prop in the set and the one to hammer.
Michael Lorenzen Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-152, MEDIUM confidence)
Michael Lorenzen Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-152, MEDIUM confidence): Lorenzen's last three starts produced 0, 2, and 5 strikeouts across 10.2 total innings, averaging 2.3 per outing. The outs market prices him at 15.5 expected outs, roughly five innings, but his recent history suggests 3 to 4 innings before an early exit. St. Louis grades in the middle of the pack for strikeouts against right-handers. Lorenzen to go over 3.5 strikeouts today, he would need to significantly outperform what he has done in any of his last two starts combined. The path there is narrow.
Alec Burleson to Hit a Home Run (+300, MEDIUM confidence)
Alec Burleson to Hit a Home Run (+300, MEDIUM confidence): Burleson owns a 2.800 OPS against Lorenzen in 5 career plate appearances with 2 home runs. His 2026 OPS against right-handers is .960. Lorenzen is surrendering home runs at a 1.42 per nine rate in 2026. Busch Stadium's home run factor of 0.95 is a mild suppressor, but the matchup edge against a pitcher who is losing command and leaving pitches elevated more than compensates. At +300, this is genuine plus-money value with career data behind it, not a dart throw.
Mickey Moniak Over 0.5 Hits (-244, MEDIUM confidence)
Mickey Moniak Over 0.5 Hits (-244, MEDIUM confidence): Moniak is 4-for-6 (.667 AVG, 1.834 OPS, 1 HR) in career plate appearances against McGreevy, all in 2025. His 2026 OPS against right-handers is .948, one of the stronger numbers in the Colorado lineup. The line asks for one hit from a batter who has connected at a .667 clip against today's starter in his most recent matchups. The price is steep at -244, but the signal is among the cleaner ones in this prop set. You are paying for probability, and the career data supports it.
Ezequiel Tovar Under 0.5 Hits (+126, MEDIUM confidence)
Ezequiel Tovar Under 0.5 Hits (+126, MEDIUM confidence): Tovar is 1-for-8 (.125 AVG, 0.250 OPS) in 9 career plate appearances against McGreevy. That is the largest career sample of any Colorado batter against today's starter, and it points clearly negative. His 2026 season compounds the concern: .206 average and a .574 OPS against right-handers, among the softer numbers in the Colorado lineup. The market prices the hitless outcome at roughly 44% implied probability. His career 12.5% hit rate against McGreevy and season-long struggles versus right-handers both suggest this outcome is materially more likely than 44%. Plus-money on the under is genuine value here.
Same-Game Parlay (MEDIUM confidence)
Same-Game Parlay (MEDIUM confidence): Cardinals ML (-179) + Over 9.5 (+106) + McGreevy Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-154) + Moniak Over 0.5 Hits (-244): Each leg in this parlay supports the others. Two low-strikeout contact pitchers create a high-contact environment that pushes the total. The Cardinals win anchor benefits from the same run-heavy game. McGreevy's strikeout under fits the same contact profile driving the over. Moniak's hit prop is backed by the strongest batter-versus-pitcher edge on the Colorado side against today's home starter. The thesis is consistent across all four markets. Constituent legs: Cardinals ML (contract 433414356), Over 9.5 (contract 433415801), McGreevy Under 4.5 K (contract 433613675), Moniak Over 0.5 Hits (contract 433613445).
Analysis insight — no specific bet associated
Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis Cardinals Summary
The Cardinals should win this game, and the data makes a clear case for it. Lorenzen has not been able to pitch past the fourth inning in three consecutive starts, and he walks into a home lineup that has Burleson sitting on a 2.800 career OPS against him. The Cardinals are at home, have momentum with four wins in five games, and carry the better bullpen into the late innings. What prevents this from being a straightforward Cardinals spread bet is McGreevy himself. His zero-floor risk is documented, not hypothetical, and Colorado's offense with McCarthy's recent form and Goodman's 33 home runs is built to capitalize on any early misfire. The +1.5 run line on Colorado makes sense alongside the Cardinals moneyline. The predicted game flow has this landing somewhere around Cardinals 5, Rockies 4, and that score alone validates the hedge.
Where I am most confident is on the pitching props. McGreevy's K/9 of 6.1 and his recent three-start log make the Under 4.5 strikeouts line look mispriced at -154 implied probability when the actual frequency this season points to 70 percent or higher. That is the bet I trust most today. Burleson at +300 to homer is the standalone prop I would keep on my ticket if I could only pick one. Career 2.800 OPS against the starter, .960 OPS versus right-handers in 2026, and a pitcher surrendering 1.42 home runs per nine innings. The park suppresses slightly, but not enough to undo that combination. Take it.
For the full slate, see our MLB picks today, NRFI picks, and player props.
Rockies vs Cardinals predictions: Cardinals ML -179 backed vs Lorenzen's 6.94 ERA. Over 9.5 +106 and Burleson HR +300 lead the prop slate today.
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