Cincinnati's offense is the perfect backdrop for McGreevy. Over their last 10 games, the Reds are hitting .184/.247/.301 with a 25.4% strikeout rate, the worst wRC+ in the league. The career batter-vs-pitcher data against McGreevy is damning: Sal Stewart is 0-for-6 with a .167 OPS, Ke'Bryan Hayes is 0-for-5 with a .000 OPS, JJ Bleday is 0-for-3 with a .000 OPS, and Eugenio Suárez is 0-for-2 with a .000 OPS. The one Reds bat with legitimate upside against him is Elly De La Cruz, who has posted a .900 OPS across 6 career PA versus McGreevy. But De La Cruz is buried in a 0-for-10 skid with just a .402 OPS over the last seven days. A depleted lineup, negative matchup history, and a hot pitcher are a bad combination.

Great American Ball Park adds a specific wrinkle here, and it cuts against Singer. The park runs a 1.18 home run factor, one of the three most HR-friendly environments in baseball. Singer has surrendered 24 home runs in 125.2 innings in 2026, a rate of 1.72 per nine. That combination creates a precise vulnerability, and Alec Burleson is exactly the hitter positioned to exploit it. In 10 career plate appearances against Singer, Burleson is hitting .556 with a 1.944 OPS and 2 home runs. His 2026 split against Singer is a 3.500 OPS in 2 PA. He is also carrying a .998 OPS over the last 28 days. Hot bat, favorable park, vulnerable pitcher. GABP amplifies whatever contact gets made, and Burleson makes elite contact against this arm.

Cardinals took Game 1, Reds answered in Game 2, and today settles the series. Both bullpens have absorbed innings over the first two games, which adds late-inning variance. The case for Cincinnati at +102 is real: even money on a home team in a one-run game is never worthless, and if Singer limits the damage through five innings, the Reds get multiple looks at a Cardinals relief corps that has also been used. But consider this as a coin-flip framing that understates the pitching gap. McGreevy owns this lineup on paper, and CIN's lineup is giving him every reason to own it in practice too.

• McGreevy's 3.48 ERA represents a meaningful edge over Singer's 4.66 ERA. Four of Cincinnati's regulars (Stewart, Hayes, Bleday, Suárez) have a combined .000 to .167 OPS across all career plate appearances against him.
• Cincinnati's offense ranks last in the league over their last 10 games: .184/.247/.301 slash, 25.4% strikeout rate, 95 total strikeouts in that stretch. This is the most favorable offensive matchup McGreevy could draw.
• Singer has surrendered 24 home runs in 125.2 innings in 2026 (1.72 HR/9). At Great American Ball Park, which posts a 1.18 HR factor, that leakage rate becomes more dangerous against a right-hander who cannot miss bats consistently.
• Alec Burleson's career line against Singer: 10 PA, .556 AVG, 1.944 OPS, 2 HR. His 2026 split against Singer is a 3.500 OPS in 2 PA. He is the single most dangerous individual matchup in this game by a significant margin.
• Both starters have elite recent first-inning numbers. McGreevy has produced no first-inning run in 9 of his last 10 starts. Singer's career NRFI rate is 79%, with a 19-to-5 overall record. The quiet first inning is the percentage play regardless of game total.
• Elly De La Cruz (.900 career OPS in 6 PA vs McGreevy) is the only Reds bat with genuine upside in this matchup, but he has gone 0-for-10 in his last 10 at-bats with a .402 OPS over the past seven days. Until he breaks out, the Cardinals' pitching edge remains fully intact.

The risk worth flagging: rubber matches carry variance, both bullpens are taxed from the series, and Elly De La Cruz only needs one swing to change the game regardless of his recent slump. The Reds have gone 32-35 at home, which reflects a team that wins games even in its worst offensive stretches. McGreevy is the better pitcher today and the Cardinals are the right side, but treat this as a close game leaning one direction rather than a statement win. The Walker under at +186 and the NRFI add plus-money value without requiring a specific score to cash. Context lines up for St. Louis. Play it accordingly and manage stake to the confidence tiers listed.

For the full slate, see our MLB picks today, NRFI picks, and player props.