Across the diamond, Cincinnati Reds send Brandon Williamson, a 28-year-old lefty who has quietly found a groove by doing something most pitchers can't survive on: managing contact without missing bats. His last three starts show 2 strikeouts over 6 scoreless innings in Atlanta, 1 strikeout over 2 innings with 1 earned run against Los Angeles, and 2 strikeouts over 4 innings with 1 earned run in Milwaukee. Five total strikeouts across 12 frames. That sounds alarming until you look at the damage: 2 earned runs over his last three outings combined. Cincinnati carries real momentum into this MLB series finale. As Redleg Nation noted, "Last night the Cincinnati Reds saw history when Elly Cruz joined the 30-30 club." That milestone, achieved in yesterday's 5-1 win at Rogers Centre, adds a dimension to this Reds lineup that pure statistics can't capture.

The park is worth a sentence. Rogers Centre is a dome with an HR factor of 1.08. That is not a dramatic park effect, but it tilts marginally toward offense, and marginally matters when your starting pitcher has already surrendered 15 home runs this season. Cruz has 30 home runs on the year and carries a 1.174 OPS over the last 28 days. He has no career matchup data against Williamson, meaning Toronto has no book on how to get him out. That is a real planning problem. On the Toronto side, Davis Schneider is the wildcard. He owns a 1.666 OPS across 3 career plate appearances against Williamson, including a home run, and he is currently running a 1.625 OPS over the last 7 days. Kazuma Okamoto is the structural edge: his OPS against left-handed pitching is .861 compared to .730 against righties, a 131-point split that maps directly onto this matchup.

The broader context for Toronto's offense is difficult to ignore. Yahoo Sports put it plainly: "The Blue Jays, who have been one of the worst offensive teams in the league, went 0-for-8 with runners in scoring position" in yesterday's Game 2 loss. Their home record this season is 41-39, which is serviceable, but their run differential sits at minus-50 and they are averaging 4.0 runs per game on the year. Williamson does not need to be dominant to keep this game close. He simply needs to avoid the big inning, which is exactly what his last three outings suggest he can do. Both starters are trending toward 5-inning outings, meaning both bullpens will factor heavily in the second half. Toronto's relievers post a 3.0 ERA, the better of the two bullpen groups. That detail is important for anyone considering how the back end plays out.

• Scherzer's 2026 ERA of 6.14 is a results problem, not a narrative one. Two of his last three starts ended with 4 or more earned runs allowed. The emotional weight of a possible final career start does not fix a home run rate of 1.74 per 9 innings.
• Williamson is not a strikeout pitcher right now. Five total Ks in his last three starts across 12 innings. He is surviving on contact management, which makes his strikeout prop line an interesting market and his ability to go deep into games a real question.
• Toronto went 0-for-8 with runners in scoring position in Game 2 of this series. That pattern fits a season-long profile for one of the worst offensive teams in baseball. Against a pitcher who does not walk batters, their inability to drive runners in becomes a structural handicap.
• Cruz enters with 30 home runs in 632 plate appearances and a 1.174 OPS over the last 28 days. He has no career matchup data against Williamson, giving Toronto's pitching staff limited historical reference points to exploit.
• Scherzer is allowing first-inning runs in roughly 59% of his starts. Cincinnati's road lineup produces first-inning runs at a 53.7% clip. Both numbers point the same direction for the YRFI market.
• Toronto's bullpen (3.0 ERA) is the best argument for staying off the Reds too aggressively. If Scherzer hands the game over in the 5th, the relief corps takes over and the Blue Jays have a real chance to hold or steal the lead late. That bullpen advantage is the primary counterweight to the pitching matchup.

The under at 8.5 is a lean, not a hammer. Scherzer's home run rate keeps the ceiling risk alive on the over side, and if Cruz or Okamoto catch one early, the game can shift fast. Treat the total as a low-conviction directional play and size it that way. The prop market is where the cleaner edges live: Williamson Under 3.5 strikeouts is the highest-confidence position on the board given his last three outings, and Okamoto Over 1.5 total bases is the structural spot that makes mechanical sense against a lefty in a mild hitter's park. This game is set up to be decided by contact, not strikeouts, and by which bullpen holds in the middle innings. Toronto's relievers (3.0 ERA) are better than Cincinnati's (4.5 ERA), and that is the primary risk factor for every Reds-side position here. Context points toward Cincinnati. The ballpark, the matchup, the momentum, and the RISP drought all line up. The farewell theater is compelling, but the tape is the tape.

For the full slate, see our MLB picks today, NRFI picks, and player props.