As the Yankees confirmed ahead of today's contest: "The New York Yankees have announced that the start time of Sunday's Yankees-Orioles game has been moved to 1:05 p.m. ET due to the current forecast of inclement weather." That earlier start means bettors are working with shifting conditions at Yankee Stadium, where wind could suppress fly-ball distances and crimp strikeout rates. Worth monitoring. Baz has his own recent struggles, posting just 2, 2, and 5 strikeouts across his last three outings. He is not missing bats right now. But his ERA still holds at 4.11, and his walk rate for the season sits at a manageable 3.15 BB/9. Against Rodríguez's 5.4 BB/9, that gap is enormous. Baltimore went 6-4 in their last 10 games and is 40-40 away from home this season, a perfectly respectable road record for a club playing out the string.

The most dangerous bat in today's MLB action is Pete Alonso, who owns a 1.423 OPS over his last seven days and has hit 43 home runs this season. He faces Rodríguez with no career matchup data between them, meaning there is no history to game-plan around. That is purely a red-hot slugger against a struggling 23-year-old in a park with a 1.15 home run factor and a short right-field porch that turns deep fly balls into souvenirs. Meanwhile, Ben Rice, the Yankees' 41-home-run DH and their most feared power bat, is 0-for-11 lifetime against Baz with a .182 OPS across three separate seasons. No misread of small samples here. That is 2024, 2025, and 2026 combined, and Rice has not been able to make contact against Baz in any of them. New York's most reliable offensive weapon is essentially neutralized before the first pitch.

If the starters get through four or five innings, this game belongs to the bullpens. New York's relief corps holds a 3.14 ERA, among the best in baseball. Baltimore checks in at 3.87, still well above average. In a season-finale context with Baltimore out of contention and the Yankees managing workloads, both managers will pull their starters early and hand the ball to their best relievers. The edge doesn't care what sport you're watching, and the formula here is the same as any tight game: the bullpen advantage narrows the more the starters struggle, and both starters are built to struggle today.

• Elmer Rodríguez has issued 16 walks in 26.2 innings this season, a 5.4 BB/9 rate that creates constant traffic. He is 0-3 with a 1.58 WHIP and has not completed five innings in two of his last three outings.
• Ben Rice, the Yankees' primary power threat with 41 home runs, is 0-for-11 lifetime against Shane Baz with a .182 OPS across 2024, 2025, and 2026. This is not a small-sample fluke. It is a consistent inability to make contact across three separate seasons against the Orioles' starter.
• Pete Alonso enters on a historic personal run: 1.423 OPS in his last seven days, 43 home runs on the season, .363 OBP, .522 SLG. He faces a pitcher with no career data against him at a park with a 1.15 HR factor. That is as clean a matchup edge as you will find.
• Baz has posted 2, 2, and 5 strikeouts in his last three outings, averaging 3.0 Ks per start. His season K/9 of roughly 7.7 masks a dramatic late-season decline in swing-and-miss production that makes the under 4.5 strikeouts bet genuinely appealing.
• Both bullpens are elite. New York holds a 3.14 ERA out of the bullpen, Baltimore is at 3.87. In a season-finale spot, expect short starter leashes and shutdown relief work in the final three innings, suppressing late-game run production for both clubs.
• Weather forced the start time up to 1:05 p.m. ET. Early-game conditions at Yankee Stadium could affect fly-ball distance and whiff rates. If the game is delayed past the moved-up start, strikeout prop lines may shift further toward the under.

The best single angle remains Ben Rice Under 0.5 hits at +150. Three seasons of 0-for-11 with a .182 OPS is not noise. That is the cleanest bet on the board. The caveat applies to every play today: New York's bullpen is a legitimate equalizer. If Rodríguez somehow navigates four or five innings without a blowup, the Yankees' 3.14-ERA relief corps can protect a one-run lead against anyone. The game can turn on a single inning of Rodríguez competence, which history says is possible but not probable. Play the Orioles at plus money, back the under in the total, and let Ben Rice's historical futility against Baz pay for it.

For the full slate, see our MLB picks today, NRFI picks, and player props.