Market unavailableL
Jul 4, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.9800
Read original reasoning
Last 3 starts: 2 K (3.0 IP), 5 K (4.0 IP), 2 K (3.0 IP) — averaging exactly 3.0 Ks with consistently short outings. 2026 K rate of 6.39 K/9 in 67.2 IP is modest, and his outing length has been trending down (5.0, 4.0, 3.0 IP in last three). If Civale gets shelled early again — which his recent 6 ER in 3.0 IP and 3 ER in 5.0 IP suggest is likely — K accumulation is capped. Under 3.5 at -102 is near pick'em but the last 3 starts trend is clear: 2 of 3 came in under.
Market unavailableW
Jun 28, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.6500
Read original reasoning
Civale's 2026 K/9 is 6.6 (46 K in 62.2 IP), and his recent strikeout output has cratered. Last 3 starts: 5, 2, 2 Ks — only one outing cleared the 4.5 line. vs LAA in 2026: 2 Ks over 5 IP. His last two outings lasted 4.0 and 3.0 IP respectively, sharply limiting his K ceiling. Under is strongly supported by both trend and matchup history.
Market unavailableL
Jun 23, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.5900
Read original reasoning
Civale's last 3 starts: 2 K (3.0 IP), 2 K (4.0 IP), 2 K (5.0 IP). He is not surviving long enough to accumulate strikeouts, and his 2026 K/9 of 6.33 (41 K in 58.2 IP) already trails league average. His recent ERA outputs — 6 ER, 7 ER, 5 ER — reflect a pitcher being attacked early, limiting his strikeout window. The market prices the under at -169 (62.9% implied), and the raw sequencing of three consecutive 2-K outings makes this a high-conviction under at any line above 3.
