Aaron Judge

Career vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 41 PA, .152 AVG, 0.590 OPS, 1 HR — the largest BvP sample in this matchup and it's decisively in Rodriguez's favor. E-Rod's LHP profile has historically neutralized Judge across six tracked seasons (2017–2023). Judge is also listed day-to-day with a leg injury, adding lineup uncertainty. His L28d OPS sits at just 0.512 — a cold stretch. At +126, the under on 0.5 hits offers genuine edge given the 41-PA career suppression.

Judge returned from IL Monday with his 18th HR of 2026 and posted a L7d OPS of 0.652. Career vs Matthews: 6 PA, .250 AVG, 0.583 OPS, 0 HR — no career HR yet against him but sample is small. Matthews has allowed 23 HR in 119.1 IP in 2026. Judge's elite power makes +330 reasonable in a game where NYY is heavily favored, but the main committee's Under 8.0 call and lack of a career HR vs Matthews temper confidence. LOW given the scoring environment projection and his cold L28d OPS of 0.560.

Judge has an .515 SLG and 18 HR in just 283 PA in 2026. His career sample vs Ober is limited (3 PA, .500 AVG, 1.667 OPS in 2024 — small sample, noted), but the matchup profile is favorable: Ober allows 1.38 HR/9, Target Field is neutral (HR factor 1.0), and the main committee has Yankees winning with an over total projected at 8 runs. At +235 (implied 29.9%), Judge's true anytime HR probability in a favorable high-total game against a homer-prone righty likely exceeds that implied price.