AJ Smith-Shawver under 3.5 strikeoutsW
Sep 8, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 2.0200
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Smith-Shawver's last 3 starts: 5 K in 4 IP, 3 K in 5 IP, 3 K in 4.1 IP — averaging 3.67 Ks, under 3.5 in 2 of 3. His 2026 BB/9 of 5.60 (11 BB in 17.2 IP) eats into at-bat opportunities needed to rack up Ks. The outs line (14.5, implied ~4.83 IP) reflects early-exit risk, and fewer innings means fewer K chances. TB carries a .260 team AVG — not a high-K lineup. Under 3.5 at +102 offers slight positive value given the pattern.
AJ Smith-Shawver under 3.5 strikeoutsW
Aug 26, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 2.1800
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Smith-Shawver's last 3 starts: 3 K (4.1 IP), 4 K (4.1 IP), 1 K (2.2 IP) — averaging 2.7 Ks per outing. In 2026 he has just 7 K across 8.2 IP (7.27 K/9) with persistent command issues (5 BB in 8.2 IP). He consistently fails to reach the 5th inning, hard-capping his K ceiling. Market is heavy on the Over at -167, but recent form tells the opposite story. Under 3.5 at +118 is strong value given he's cleared this line only once in his last three starts.
AJ Smith-Shawver under 3.5 strikeoutsV
Aug 19, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 2.2000
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Smith-Shawver's entire 2026 log is a single start: 4.1 IP, 4 K on Jul 29, now returning after 21 days rest — a clear sign of an innings-limit or health-related restriction. Two starts prior to that: 1 K in 2.2 IP (May 29) and 1 K in 3.0 IP (May 22). He has exceeded 3.5 Ks just once in his last three appearances. Returning pitcher on a tight leash coming off extended absence, likely pulled after 3-4 innings regardless of performance. Market at +120 prices in reasonable Under upside.
