Alec Bohm

Bohm is among the coldest hitters on this slate: .249 BA overall but only .188 OPS over the last 7 days — historically poor recent form. His OPS vs RHP is .644, and Holmes (expected bulk-inning RHP for ATL) profiles as a difficult matchup given Bohm's weak right-handed splits. If Atlanta uses a left-handed opener (Kerr or Suter), Bohm's .816 vs LHP offers some early-inning upside — but the short opener window limits that exposure, and PHI's in-game offense leans on its power bats ahead of Bohm in the order. +172 implies only 36.8% on the under, which understates the combined cold-streak and RHP-heavy pitching plan.

Career vs Martinez: 8 PA, .143 AVG, 0.536 OPS, 0 HR. The 2022 matchup produced 0.000 OPS, 2023 was 0.333 OPS — only the 2024 sample (3 PA, 1.000 OPS) was positive, and that's a 3-PA sample. Bohm's season .250 BA looks pedestrian, and his L7d OPS is 0.490. PHI's team-wide slump (extended shutout streak, 23-2 run differential in last four) compounds the unfavorable BvP. Under at +150 offers real value given the weak career matchup number.

Bohm's L7d OPS is 0.890 and L28d OPS is 0.845 — among the hottest PHI bats right now. His vL OPS is 0.828, meaning he handles LHP Thornton's handedness well on a season-long basis. The headwind: Bohm is 0-for-3 vs Thornton in 2026 (small sample, 3 PA). The recent heat and strong platoon split push toward the over at -278, but the specific BvP failure (even at tiny sample) caps this at LOW confidence. PHI being favored supports Bohm seeing quality at-bats.