Alec Burleson

Burleson is 0-for-12 (at minimum) in career PA vs Misiorowski, posting a 0.154 OPS across 13 career PA. In 2026 specifically: 6 PA, 0.000 OPS — zero hits, zero walks. Misiorowski's arsenal completely neutralizes him. Burleson's season .279 AVG means nothing here; the career BvP data is the signal, and it's a hard shutdown. +118 for the under is legitimate value against a batter who has not reached base vs this pitcher all season.

Burleson is 0-for-7 career vs Gasser (.000 AVG, 0.143 OPS) — the worst matchup in the entire STL lineup. Breaking it down: 2024: 2 PA, 0.000 OPS; 2025: 2 PA, 0.500 OPS; 2026: 3 PA, 0.000 OPS. His most recent three appearances produced zero hits. Compounding the BvP signal, Burleson's platoon split vs LHP is .554 OPS — dramatically worse than his .924 OPS vs RHP. Gasser is LHP in peak September form (1.71 ERA this month). +140 odds on a batter who is 0-for-his-last-6 vs this specific pitcher is strong value.

Burleson is 0-for-6 career vs Jones (.000 AVG, 0.167 OPS), including 0-for-3 in their 2026 matchups at 0.000 OPS. Jones is in dominant form — 9, 8, and 9 Ks in his last three starts — and his 10.87 K/9 makes hitless games commonplace for opposing hitters. Burleson's overall .934 OPS vs RHP looks strong on the season, but his career futility vs Jones specifically is the primary signal here. Under 0.5 hits at +164 offers market value against a matchup the books haven't sufficiently priced in.