Andrew Abbott under 3.5 strikeoutsL
Sep 23, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.9600
Read original reasoning
Abbott's last start vs ATL (Jul 31 2025) produced only 1K in 5.1 IP — directly relevant BvP signal against this lineup. His 2026 has been volatile: 5K in 4.2 IP, 0K in 2.0 IP (Milwaukee disaster), 5K in 4.0 IP. With 75 BB in 159 IP (4.22 BB/9 equivalent), Abbott induces walks more than strikeouts when his command wavers. ATL hit LHPs to a 32-25 record and their contact-oriented hitters (Dubón .273 AVG, Harris .291 AVG, Baldwin .284 AVG) make Abbott work deep in counts without generating consistent whiffs. If he struggles early and is pulled before the 5th inning — a real possibility given his recent outings — he won't reach 4 Ks.
Andrew Abbott under 3.5 strikeoutsL
Sep 16, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.6800
Read original reasoning
Abbott's last 3 starts: 0 K (2.0 IP), 5 K (4.0 IP), 1 K (3.0 IP) — two of three are well under 3.5, and his outings have been brutally short. Season K/9 has dropped to roughly 7.0 in 2026 vs 8.1 in 2025, reflecting declining stuff (70 BB in 154.1 IP). Facing a Dodgers lineup that ranks top-tier in run scoring (5.0 R/G), Abbott risks another early exit. With his floor now 2-3 innings in recent appearances, the under is the percentage play despite the -147 price.
Andrew Abbott under 4.5 strikeoutsW
Sep 11, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.6200
Read original reasoning
Abbott's 2026 K/9 is 7.1 — trailing Dustin May's 8.6 by a significant margin — and he averages only 5.1 IP per start. At 7.1 K/9 across a 5-inning outing, the math yields roughly 4.0 Ks. Last three starts: 5 K in 4.0 IP, 1 K in 3.0 IP, 6 K in 6.0 IP — only one of three cleared the line. His career outings vs MIL show the same ceiling: 5 K (Sep 05), 3 K (Jul 01), 4 K (Sep 27 2025). Milwaukee's .257 team AVG and strong contact rate suppress strikeout upside. Market implies 61.7% probability for under at -161, and the data aligns.
