Andrew Painter over 4.5 strikeoutsW
Sep 24, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.6100
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Painter is averaging roughly 8.0 K/9 on the season (107 K in 120.2 IP). Last 3 starts: 7K, 3K, 6K — over 4.5 in two of three. The 3K outing came vs ATL in 5.0 IP with 4 BB indicating command issues, not a sudden loss of strikeout stuff. His only 2026 appearance vs MIL: 3K in 5.0 IP, but that was a 5-ER blowout with likely early exit. MIL is the #1 team in baseball but Wilson's bullpen-oriented role means PHI may lean Painter deep. Over 4.5 at -164 aligns with his K profile.
Andrew Painter over 4.5 strikeoutsW
Sep 8, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.8100
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Painter's last 3 starts: 8 K, 6 K, 6 K — cleared 4.5 in all three. His 91 K in 105.1 IP works out to 7.77 K/9 on the season. The line of 4.5 is well below his recent pace. Houston's lineup is hitting .240 AVG with a .722 OPS — not a contact-heavy group. Even factoring in his concerning 5.81 home ERA, his strikeout output has remained consistent regardless of run prevention. Painter needs only 5 Ks to beat this line and has done it in 3 consecutive outings.
Andrew Painter over 3.5 strikeoutsW
Sep 2, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.7700
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Painter carries a 7.78 K/9 (85 K in 98.1 IP) in 2026. His only prior ARI start this year produced 7 Ks in 5 IP (Apr 12). Two of his last three starts exceeded 3.5 Ks (6 vs LAA, 8 vs STL — only the MIN outing was an outlier at 2). ARI is 48-55 vs RHP this season and is in the middle of an L3 skid. Market implied probability is 56.5% — reasonable given the historical ARI matchup output and Painter's season K rate.
