Anthony Kay under 1.5 strikeoutsW
Oct 5, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.5800
Read original reasoning
Kay is confirmed in an opener role, with Sean Burke handling bulk innings. His last three appearances: 0 K in 1.1 IP (Oct 03 vs CLE), 0 K in 0.2 IP (Sep 30 vs HOU), 4 K in 5.0 IP (Sep 27 vs COL). The 4-K outing came in a traditional 5-inning start, not an opener stint. In opener mode he has recorded 0 Ks in his two most recent outings. Recording 2+ Ks in a 1–2 inning opener appearance requires an extremely efficient, K-heavy frame — highly unlikely given his recent pace. Under 1.5 at -172 reflects market certainty that is justified by this usage pattern.
Anthony Kay under 3.5 strikeoutsL
Sep 27, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 2.1600
Read original reasoning
Kay's last 3 starts: 4K, 3K, 2K — averaging exactly 3.0 Ks per outing, under the 3.5 line in 2 of 3. More critically, he has not eclipsed 4.0 IP in any of those starts (4.0/4.0/4.0 IP), meaning the volume simply isn't there for accumulation. At 7.35 K/9 season rate in 153.0 IP, the per-inning rate is fine but short outings cap totals. COL batters have no career data vs Kay, so no matchup uplift. At +116, under is priced with positive value.
Anthony Kay under 3.5 strikeoutsL
Sep 22, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.7500
Read original reasoning
Kay's 2026 K/9 is 7.30 (121 K in 149.0 IP) but his last 3 starts produced only 3, 2, and 3 strikeouts across 4.0, 4.0, and 4.1 IP respectively — 8 Ks in 12.1 IP. He is not finishing innings and the outs market (13.5 line at -123 under) confirms the market expects a short start around 4.5 innings. Even at his season K rate, 4-ish innings projects to roughly 3.0 Ks. Short outings are the cap; the under at -133 is the correct side.
