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Bats R · 2026 player profile
10-game rolling xwOBA
2026-03-26 — 2026-10-07 · 42 recorded dates. Higher xwOBA means stronger expected production.
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Pick record checked Oct 13, 2026 ET. Local preview uses saved data.
Original reasoning and recorded results.
Showing 5 past picks from 5 linked picks since Jan 1, 2026 ET. Snapshot Oct 13, 2026 ET.
May 2, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 2.0500
Career vs King: 12 PA, .111 AVG, 0.444 OPS across 4 seasons (2021: 0.250 OPS, 2022: 0.250 OPS, 2023: 0.500 OPS) — sustained difficulty with consistent sample. 2025 shows 2 PA at 1.000 OPS but that is too small to override a career-long pattern of struggles. Season slash .233/.250/.326 with L28d 0.666 OPS. Petco Park HR factor 0.88 suppresses extra-base potential.
May 1, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 2.3000
Hays is hitting .231/.250/.333 this season (40 PA) with a vRHP OPS of only 0.535, well below average. He is 0-for-3 career vs Márquez (2025 data, small sample — explicit caveat). In ~3 AB vs a RHP he's struggled against, the probability of a hitless game from a .231 hitter is approximately 45%+. Market implies only 43.5% under — slight but real edge at +130.
Apr 29, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 2.3400
Career vs Kikuchi: 27 PA, .192 AVG, 0.568 OPS across 2021-2025 — a meaningful sample showing persistent under-performance vs this left-hander. Breakdown by year: 2021 (3 PA, 0.000 OPS), 2022 (8 PA, 0.875 OPS), 2023 (11 PA, 0.573 OPS), 2024 (2 PA, 0.000 OPS), 2025 (3 PA, 0.666 OPS). The larger seasons (2022-2023) show .573-.875 OPS range — below average. Season stats also weak at .206/.229/.324 with a 0.000 OPS last 7 days. +134 is solid value for a batter hitting .192 in 27 career PA vs this starter.
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Which pitches he handles and how he makes decisions at the plate.
Heatmap · exit velocity in mph · catcher’s view. Choose a pitch type above to filter measured contact.
Updated 2026-10-13. Seasons are split by team.
| Season / team | G | PA | H | HR | RBI | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 · | 38 | 105 | 28 | 3 | 15 | .280 | .305 | .400 | .705 |
| 2026 · San Diego Padres | 26 | 61 | 18 | 2 | 8 | .316 | .344 | .456 | .800 |
| 2026 · Chicago White Sox | 12 | 44 | 10 | 1 | 7 | .233 | .250 | .326 | .576 |
| 2025 · Cincinnati Reds | 103 | 416 | 101 | 15 | 64 | .266 | .315 | .453 | .768 |
| 2024 · | 85 | 255 | 60 | 5 | 20 | .255 | .303 | .396 | .699 |
| 2024 · Philadelphia Phillies | 22 | 80 | 20 | 2 | 6 | .256 | .275 | .397 | .672 |
| 2024 · Baltimore Orioles | 63 | 175 | 40 | 3 | 14 | .255 | .316 | .395 | .711 |
| 2023 · Baltimore Orioles | 144 | 566 | 143 | 16 | 67 | .275 | .325 | .444 | .769 |
| 2022 · Baltimore Orioles | 145 | 582 | 134 | 16 | 60 | .250 | .306 | .413 | .719 |
| 2021 · Baltimore Orioles | 131 | 529 | 125 | 22 | 71 | .256 | .308 | .461 | .769 |
| 2020 · Baltimore Orioles | 33 | 134 | 34 | 4 | 9 | .279 | .328 | .393 | .721 |
| 2019 · Baltimore Orioles | 21 | 75 | 21 | 4 | 13 | .309 | .373 | .574 | .947 |
| 2017 · Baltimore Orioles | 20 | 63 | 13 | 1 | 8 | .217 | .238 | .317 | .555 |
| Career | 720 | 2725 | 659 | 86 | 327 | .263 | .313 | .434 | .747 |
Existing chart-builder observations, grouped by date. Not an official box-score game log; missing values stay blank.
| Date | PA* | xwOBA | BA | EV (mph) | Barrel fraction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-07 | 3 | 0.273 | 0.000 | 82.6 | 0.000 |
| 2026-10-04 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.000 | — | — |
| 2026-10-03 | 1 | 0.022 | 0.000 | 92.9 | 0.000 |
| 2026-09-30 | 1 | 0.034 | 0.000 | 76.9 | 0.000 |
| 2026-09-29 | 4 | 0.197 | 0.000 | 79.2 | 0.000 |
| 2026-09-27 | 5 | 0.250 | 0.500 | 96.0 | 0.000 |
| 2026-09-25 | 2 | 0.154 | 0.000 | 72.9 | 0.000 |
| 2026-09-24 | 1 | 0.511 | 1.000 | 96.1 | 0.000 |
| 2026-09-23 | 1 | 0.484 | 1.000 | 90.8 | 0.000 |
| 2026-09-22 | 2 | 0.178 | 0.000 | 97.4 | 0.000 |
*PA is the count of appearances with a positive wOBA denominator.
Sample: 105 pa
Compared with 2026 batters with a recorded value and at least 50 plate appearances.
Sample: 74 bip
Compared with 2026 batters with a recorded value and at least 30 batted balls.
Sample: 74 bip
Compared with 2026 batters with a recorded value and at least 30 batted balls.
Sample: 74 bip
Compared with 2026 batters with a recorded value and at least 30 batted balls.
Sample: 105 pa
Compared with 2026 batters with a recorded value and at least 50 plate appearances.
Sample: 105 pa
Compared with 2026 batters with a recorded value and at least 50 plate appearances.
