Bailey Falter

Falter's 2026 has been a disaster: 9.82 ERA, 6 K in just 7.1 IP across three abbreviated starts (May 19 BOS: 2 IP 2 K; May 16 STL: 2 IP 0 K; Apr 01 MIN: 0.1 IP 0 K). Two of three recent starts produced 0 or fewer than 2 Ks; none went deep enough to accumulate Ks. If he gets yanked after 1-2 innings again — highly likely given NYY's lineup pressure — he won't reach 1.5 Ks. Under 1.5 at +114 has positive expected value.

Falter has been dismal in 2026: 4 K across 5.1 IP in three starts (0K, 0K, 4K in last three outings). His 10.12 ERA reflects a pitcher getting knocked out early before accumulating strikeouts. He has not cleared 1.5 K in two of his three 2026 appearances and struggled to even record outs. Under 1.5 is heavily favored by the market (-141) for good reason — he simply isn't lasting long enough to reach the line.