Blade Tidwell

Tidwell has faced STL twice in his career — Sep 9 2026 (2 K in 4.0 IP) and May 4 2025 (2 K in 3.2 IP) — both well under 3.5. His last 3 starts overall: 2, 5, 4 Ks (3.7 avg), but the STL-specific sample is a hard 2K ceiling in short outings. His 2026 walk rate (20 BB in 46.2 IP) leads to early exits that cap strikeout volume. Under 3.5 at -101 is fair value given the STL matchup pattern.

Tidwell's 2026 K/9 is 7.59 (36 K in 42.2 IP). His last 3 starts: 5, 4, and 7 Ks — two of three cleared 4.5. STL's offense carries a .702 OPS and .243 AVG, below-average contact quality that plays into swing-and-miss arms. Six days of extended rest could sharpen his stuff. Risk: Tidwell has logged only 5.0 IP in two of his last three starts, capping K uptime if he exits early. Career vs STL (2025, small sample): 2 K in 3.2 IP, which is a drag, but overall K rate supports the over.

Tidwell's 2026 K/9 is 7.49 (31 K in 37.2 IP), but his last 3 starts tell a chaotic story: 4 K (5.0 IP vs ARI), 7 K (5.2 IP vs BOS), 1 K (4.1 IP vs COL). Two of three cleared the line, but the COL implosion (1 K, 5 BB, 6 ER in 4.1 IP) reveals the floor. PNC Park suppresses run scoring (runs factor 0.96). PIT's lineup hits .253 with balanced contact-oriented hitters — most have zero career matchup data vs Tidwell, limiting our ability to project K upside. At +120, the Under carries meaningful value vs -172 juice on the Over, especially given outing length risk (two of three last starts were 5 IP or under) and the volatility of his strikeout output.