Blake Snell over 6.5 strikeoutsL
Oct 4, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.6800
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55 K in 42.2 IP in 2026 with a 1.90 ERA — an elite strikeout pace. Only 2026 regular season start vs ATL (May 9): 5 Ks in 3 IP, indicating Snell can miss bats against this lineup at a high rate even on short outings. Best career outing vs ATL: 11 Ks in 6.1 IP (Aug 2024). 8 days rest heading into a postseason Game 2 start on home soil supports a deeper, more impactful outing than recent tune-up starts. Risk: last 3 regular season outings were abbreviated (4 IP/3 K, 1 IP/1 K, 5.2 IP/8 K), and Roberts may deploy a pitch count even in the postseason. The deeper start assumption is the key lever — if Snell goes 5+ IP his K rate supports the over.
Blake Snell over 7.5 strikeoutsL
Sep 16, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.8400
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Snell's 2026 K/9 sits at 12.2 (51 K in 37.2 IP). Last 3 starts: 8, 7, 10 Ks — two of three cleared 7.5. Against CIN specifically: 9 K (Sep 2025) and 11 K (Aug 2024). Career BvP reinforces the edge: Elly De La Cruz 0-for-4 (0.000 OPS), Bleday 0-for-3 (0.000 OPS), Stephenson 0-for-6 (0.167 OPS), Friedl 0-for-3 (0.333 OPS). CIN is 17-22 vs LHP and running a brutal L10 (3-7). The -119 price is fair for a pitcher this dominant against this specific opponent.
Blake Snell over 7.5 strikeoutsL
Sep 4, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.8400
Read original reasoning
Snell is posting 12.46 K/9 in 2026 (36 K in 26.0 IP). The outs market (17.5 Over at -164) implies approximately 6 innings of work, which projects to roughly 8.3 Ks at his current rate — clearing 7.5. WSH batters have historically struggled vs Snell: CJ Abrams is 1-for-7 career (.143 AVG, 0.286 OPS) with a clear downward trend (0.000 OPS in 3 PA in 2024); Jacob Young is 0-for-4 (0.000 AVG, 0.250 OPS); James Wood is 0-for-2 (0.000 OPS). Extended 6-day rest and Dodger Stadium's marine layer (suppresses fly balls, incentivizes strikeouts) further support the over.
