Brad Lord under 2.5 strikeoutsL
Sep 2, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.5400
Read original reasoning
Lord's last 3 starts: 4 K in 2.1 IP (Aug 29), 2 K in 2.1 IP (Aug 25), 1 K in 2.2 IP (Aug 21). That's 7 total Ks in 6.2 IP across three outings — averaging 2.33 Ks per start, well below the 2.5 line. The pattern is clear: Lord is being pulled extremely early, capping any accumulation. Even his 8.27 K/9 season rate is irrelevant when he's not reaching the 3rd inning. Under 2.5 is the high-conviction play here.
Brad Lord under 2.5 strikeoutsW
Aug 21, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 2.1400
Read original reasoning
Lord's last 3 starts produced a combined 5 Ks across just 4.1 total IP (0 K in 1.0 IP, 4 K in 2.2 IP, 1 K in 0.2 IP). The market's 9.5-outs line implies the book expects only ~3.2 innings from him tonight. At his 2026 K/9 of 8.24, 3.2 innings projects to ~2.9 Ks — right on the number, but his recent command implosion (4 BB in 0.2 IP vs NYM) and history of sub-2 IP outings vs MIA (1.1, 1.2, 1.0 IP in three prior appearances) make the under the safer side. If he gets pulled before completing 3 innings again, he won't sniff 2.5 Ks. +114 pricing offers real value on a starter with demonstrable early-hook risk.
Brad Lord under 3.5 strikeoutsW
Aug 15, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.6300
Read original reasoning
Lord's last three starts are a red flag: 2.2 IP (4 K, Aug 9 vs CIN), 1.0 IP (0 K, Aug 5 at PHI), 1.1 IP (0 K, Jul 5 vs PIT). Total: 4.2 IP across three outings. Even with a solid 2026 K/9 of 8.24, he has to stay in the game to accumulate strikeouts. If he's pulled before the 4th inning — a realistic outcome given recent patterns — he cannot clear 3.5 Ks. Previous NYM appearances: May 19 (3.0 IP, 3 K) and Apr 28 (2.1 IP, 1 K). His outs market (11.5 line at -112/-123) signals the market also doubts he pitches deep. Under 3.5 Ks is the highest-conviction play on this slate.
