Brandon Sproat under 5.5 strikeoutsW
Aug 3, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.7300
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Sproat carries a 9.3 K/9 season rate but his last 3 starts show a clear ceiling problem: 5 K (6.0 IP), 4 K (4.2 IP), 3 K (3.0 IP). Even in his deepest recent outing he finished one K short of 5.5. His 2026 ERA stands at 5.05 with 1.39 WHIP — he's been getting hit and pulled early. Career vs PIT in 2026: 3.0 IP, 3 K (only matchup). PIT is cold offensively (3-7 L10) which could help Sproat survive longer, but his own instability limits IP. Under -137 is fair given three consecutive sub-5.5 K starts.
Brandon Sproat under 4.5 strikeoutsL
Jul 27, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.7600
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Sproat's last 3 starts: 4 K (4.2 IP), 3 K (3.0 IP), 4 K (4.0 IP) — has not reached 4.5 in any of them. His recent outings have averaged under 4 IP, capping total K opportunities. 2026 season K/9 of 9.45 looks good on paper, but the truncated outings tell the real story. Market also prices his outs prop at Under 15.5 outs as -161 favorite, confirming the short-outing expectation. -132 is solid value given 3-for-3 recent unders.
Brandon Sproat under 4.5 strikeoutsW
Jul 21, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.9200
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Sproat's last 3 starts: 3K in 3.0 IP, 4K in 4.0 IP, 7K in 5.1 IP — cleared 4.5 only once in that stretch and needed a full 5+ inning outing to do it. His 39 BB in 82.0 IP (4.27 BB/9) drives short outings and pitch inefficiency. 5.16 ERA reflects command issues that limit K volume when innings are abbreviated. With 10 days rest (extended), command rust is a real factor. NYM team K rate from their offense is weak (.233 AVG, .683 OPS) but Sproat's own mechanics are the limiting factor here — can't strikeout batters he doesn't face.
