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Jul 4, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 2.1200
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Woodruff's 2026 K/9 sits at 8.86 (41 K in 41.2 IP). His last two full outings: 6 K in 5.2 IP vs CHC and 10 K in 6.0 IP vs CIN. The 2K start on Apr 30 vs ARI was only 1.1 IP — garbage-time early hook, irrelevant to this projection. Facing a depleted ARI lineup that just played 11 innings Friday with a taxed bullpen. Woodruff's walk rate (9 BB in 41.2 IP) is excellent, meaning he works deep and accumulates Ks. At +112, this line is undervalued for a pitcher who has gone 6+ Ks in both full outings this month.
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Jun 28, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.6600
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Woodruff's 2026 K/9 is 8.75 across 36.0 IP with a 0.89 WHIP. His career K/9 vs CHC is an elite 11.1 across 90.2 IP (19 games, 17 starts) — he has historically owned this lineup. Last full start Jun 22 vs CIN: 6 IP, 0 ER, 10 K. The 5.5 line is soft given this matchup history. CHC hits .242 as a team with no elite contact advantage. With 6 days extended rest and the Brewers bullpen taxed from yesterday's 8-2 loss (Chad Patrick allowing 4 ER in under an inning), Woodruff is positioned to go deep into this game. Needing just 6 Ks against a lineup he averages 11.1 K/9 against career is a compelling over.
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Jun 22, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.7000
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Woodruff returning from IL after missing roughly 7 weeks with right shoulder inflammation. Last live appearance was April 30 (1 1/3 IP). Two minor league rehab starts produced a 6.00 ERA. Manager will almost certainly impose a 60-75 pitch ceiling on his return, which projects to 3-4 innings max and gives him limited ceiling to reach 6 strikeouts. Even in healthy 2024/2025 seasons his K/9 was solid but not elite. Pitch count restrictions and rustiness after extended layoff make this a high-confidence under at -143.
