Brandon Young over 4.5 strikeoutsW
Sep 20, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 2.0800
Read original reasoning
Young's 2026 K/9 is 7.29 (118 K in 145.2 IP). Last 3 starts: 6K, 2K, 7K — two of three cleared 4.5. The 2K result came in just 3.2 IP (blowup start); in his other two he logged 6K and 7K in 5.0+ IP. MIL carries 148 HR and .744 OPS team, suggesting swing-aggressive hitters who generate strikeouts for pitchers with Young's arsenal. +108 offers real value against a -152 market line that over-weights a single short-outing outlier.
Brandon Young over 3.5 strikeoutsW
Sep 14, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.6900
Read original reasoning
Young has 112 K in 140.2 IP in 2026 (7.17 K/9), with true talent K/9 estimated at 7.69 per news intel. The 3.5 line is low — at 7.17 K/9 over just 5 innings he projects to ~3.99 Ks. Outs market (15.5 outs Over -114) indicates the market expects 5+ innings, clearing the threshold. His one prior appearance vs NYM (Jul 2025) produced 6 Ks in 5.1 IP. Extended rest (6 days) supports a full outing. Last start was shortened to 3.2 IP with 2 Ks, but that outlier should regress toward true talent. Line of 3.5 at -145 has value.
Brandon Young under 3.5 strikeoutsW
Sep 8, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.9200
Read original reasoning
Young's K totals over his last 3 starts show a clear declining trend: 7 (vs BOS, Sep 3), 4 (at ATH, Aug 28), 3 (vs TB, Aug 22). In his one career outing vs CLE (Jul 22, 2025) he recorded just 3 Ks in 4.1 IP. The directional trend and limited CLE matchup history lean under, though the market is near a coin flip (Under -109 / Over -128), reflecting genuine uncertainty. Low confidence given the wide variance in his recent K outputs.
