Brendan Donovan

Donovan's platoon split is the key signal here: .936 OPS vs RHP but only .479 OPS vs LHP. David Peterson is a LHP, and Donovan is projected in the SEA lineup facing a southpaw. His career BvP vs Peterson is 3 PA (.333 AVG / 0.666 OPS) in 2025 only — small sample, and the .479 LHP split is the dominant signal. At +154 for the under there is genuine value versus the -222 market price on the over.

Donovan has the largest career sample against Boyd of any Mariners batter: 11 PA, .100 AVG, 0.200 OPS, zero home runs. That is 1 hit in 11 career trips — a strong and meaningful signal even accounting for sample size. His 2025 matchup alone (9 PA, 0.250 OPS) shows continued struggles. Boyd is a lefty, and Donovan's vL OPS of 0.467 is among the weakest splits in the Seattle lineup. At +146, the market is giving real return on a well-grounded under.

Career vs Buehler 6 PA: .600 AVG, 1.867 OPS, 1 HR — remarkably consistent excellence. 2025: 3 PA, 1.666 OPS; 2026: 3 PA, 2.000 OPS — BvP is trending UP, not down. Season line of .274/.386/.452 with 3 HR underscores real power threat. Buehler's 5.20 ERA in 2026 and history of allowing hard contact compounds the case. Over 1.5 total bases at +128 (43.9% implied) is strong value given the BvP pattern. Consistent with Padres scoring prediction of ~3.3 runs.