Brett Baty

Baty is scorching hot: L7d OPS 1.203 and L28d OPS 1.096 — among the best marks on either roster over that span. Despite his .229 season AVG, his current form shows clear above-average contact. vR OPS 0.706 vs RHP like Young is functional. BvP sample is 2 PA (too small to draw conclusions per small-sample rule). -111 (52.6% implied) is reasonable juice for a player producing at an elite level over the past month, and aligns with the Main Committee's lean toward the Orioles side of this game.

Baty has caught fire with a 1.515 OPS over his last 7 days and a strong .985 OPS over the last 28 days — arguably the hottest bat in the NYM lineup right now. Career vs Junk in 2026: 2 PA, 0.000 OPS, but that is far too small a sample to override his current trajectory. Season OPS vR is .699 — solid. Junk carries a 4.00 ERA and 1.27 WHIP, meaning he concedes hits at a healthy clip. Main picks favor NYM, and a hot hitter in an over-projected run environment (blended 8.1 runs) provides the context. -152 is reasonable for a player this hot.

Career vs Alcantara: 0-for-4, 0.000 OPS. Note: this is a small sample of 4 PA, so it should not be over-weighted alone, but it aligns with Baty's season-long platoon weakness — his vR OPS is .688 and he's hitting .226 overall with a .298 OBP. Alcantara at home with 5 days rest is a tough draw. Under at +114 offers plus-money value on a combination of BvP pattern and weak platoon fit.