Byron Buxton to hit a home runL
Aug 25, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 3.9000
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Buxton leads MIN with 25 HR and posts a .515 SLG with .761 OPS vL — he handles LHP well, a key factor with Jump on the mound. Jump's HR/9 of 0.99 is roughly league average, and Buxton's raw power gives him a reasonable shot at any given at-bat. At +290 (25.6% implied), the market may slightly undervalue him against a struggling southpaw. LOW confidence aligns with the Under 9.5 total pick — this is a power flier, not a conviction play.
Byron Buxton under 1.5 hitsL
Aug 24, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.4300
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Buxton is 0-for-7 career vs Jeffrey Springs with a 0.000 OPS across multiple seasons (2022: 3 PA 0.000 OPS, 2025: 3 PA 0.000 OPS, 2026: 1 PA 0.000 OPS). That is a complete career shutout at the plate against this arm. Despite Buxton's .251 season average and 25 HR, Springs has owned this matchup entirely. Getting 2+ hits requires a dramatic reversal of a multi-year pattern. The -233 market price reflects this, and the BvP data fully supports it.
Byron Buxton over 1.5 total basesL
Aug 22, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 2.1200
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Buxton's career vs Mize is the strongest BvP signal in this game: 23 PA, .348 AVG, 1.087 OPS, 2 HR. Trend is accelerating — 2025: 9 PA at 1.666 OPS; 2026: 3 PA at 1.000 OPS. Season profile: .518 SLG, 25 HR, .877 OPS vs RHP. A hitter averaging over a total base per at-bat historically against today's starter with extra-base power is a clear over candidate at 1.5 TB. Market pricing of +112 (47.2% implied) underestimates the BvP edge — true probability closer to 55%. Even with Petco's HR suppression factor of 0.88, Buxton regularly does damage vs Mize through multiple contact types.
