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Throws L · 2026 player profile
10-game rolling xwOBA
2026-04-05 — 2026-09-18 · 8 recorded dates. Lower xwOBA means less expected production allowed.
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Pick record checked Oct 13, 2026 ET. Local preview uses saved data.
Original reasoning and recorded results.
Showing 2 past picks from 2 linked picks since Jan 1, 2026 ET. Snapshot Oct 13, 2026 ET.
May 7, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.9600
Povich 2026: 11 K in 16.1 IP (~6.1 K/9), a low rate that maps to roughly 3-4 Ks per typical 5-inning outing. Last 3 starts: 4K, 5K, 2K — two of three under the 4.5 line. Last outing vs NYY was only 4.0 IP (5 ER). MIA lineup, while struggling (16-21, L4 streak), still makes contact (.250 team AVG). At near-even odds (-104), the under is the slight lean given Povich's limited K upside and short recent outings.
Apr 12, 2026 ET · Odds at publication unavailable
Povich has recorded only 2, 4, and 5 Ks in his last 3 starts — none exceeded 5.5. His 2026 line shows just 2 K in 5.2 IP. Career profile is not a swing-and-miss pitcher (5.20 ERA, ~10.5 K/9 in 2025 but only 2 K this season opener). SF Giants team strikeout rate as batters not elite. Under 5.5 at -123 is slight market lean but supported by all three recent starts falling short.
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What he throws, how it moves, and when he uses it.
| Pitch | Usage | Velo | Whiff% | xwOBA | EV | HMov | VMov | Spin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-Seam FastballFF | 46% | 91.8 | 19.9% | 0.301 | 92.1 | 6.7 | 18.2 | 2446 |
| CurveballCU | 22% | 76.4 | 37.3% | 0.276 | 81.8 | -8.7 | -15.3 | 2455 |
| SliderSL | 13% | 86.6 | 27.0% | 0.369 | 87.9 | -5.3 | 6.7 | 2514 |
| ChangeupCH | 10% | 85.1 | 15.6% | 0.404 | 91.2 | 14.6 | 6.1 | 1510 |
| SinkerSI | 9% | 91.3 | 9.1% | 0.422 | 93.1 | 14.4 | 13.7 | 2271 |
Heatmap · exit velocity in mph · catcher’s view. Choose a pitch type above to filter measured contact.
Updated 2026-10-13. Seasons are split by team. Innings use baseball notation: .1 is one out, .2 is two outs.
| Season / team | G | GS | IP | K | BB | ERA | WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 · Baltimore Orioles | 8 | 7 | 37.0 | 28 | 15 | 4.38 | 1.49 |
| 2025 · Baltimore Orioles | 22 | 20 | 112.1 | 118 | 43 | 5.21 | 1.50 |
| 2024 · Baltimore Orioles | 16 | 16 | 79.2 | 69 | 34 | 5.20 | 1.43 |
| Career | 46 | 43 | 229.0 | 215 | 92 | 5.07 | 1.47 |
Existing chart-builder observations, grouped by date. Not an official box-score game log; missing values stay blank.
| Date | PA* | xwOBA | BA | EV (mph) | Barrel fraction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | 18 | 0.335 | 0.312 | 87.7 | 0.077 |
| 2026-08-31 | 22 | 0.273 | 0.263 | 85.3 | 0.000 |
| 2026-08-09 | 15 | 0.408 | 0.308 | 89.6 | 0.091 |
| 2026-08-04 | 23 | 0.263 | 0.318 | 91.5 | 0.000 |
| 2026-05-07 | 14 | 0.377 | 0.273 | 90.2 | 0.100 |
| 2026-05-01 | 19 | 0.462 | 0.389 | 96.1 | 0.143 |
| 2026-04-12 | 24 | 0.238 | 0.208 | 92.5 | 0.105 |
| 2026-04-05 | 24 | 0.367 | 0.190 | 87.2 | 0.053 |
*PA is the count of appearances with a positive wOBA denominator.
Sample: 160 pa
Compared with 2026 pitchers with a recorded value and at least 50 batters faced.
Sample: 116 bip
Compared with 2026 pitchers with a recorded value and at least 30 batted balls.
Sample: 105 bip
Compared with 2026 pitchers with a recorded value and at least 30 batted balls.
Sample: 110 bip
Compared with 2026 pitchers with a recorded value and at least 50 batters faced.
