Cal Quantrill over 2.5 strikeoutsL
Sep 19, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.5600
Read original reasoning
Quantrill's last 3 starts: 4 K, 4 K, 5 K — all clearing 2.5 easily. His 2026 K/9 is 6.71 over 108.2 IP. His lone 2026 start vs TOR (Jun 27) produced 5 Ks in 4.0 IP. Toronto is a top-5 offense vs RHP over the last 30 days, which means Quantrill will face a motivated lineup but also a lineup that's been making contact — he's generating outs, not dominance, but consistently piling up 4+ Ks. The -179 juice is steep but last 3 outings are a near-lock on the over-2.5 threshold.
Cal Quantrill over 4.5 strikeoutsL
Sep 13, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 2.2000
Read original reasoning
Quantrill's 2026 K/9 is 6.77 across 102.2 IP. In his last 3 starts, he posted 4K, 5K, and 8K — two of three cleared 4.5. Facing an ARI lineup ranked bottom-3 in MLB in BA, OPS, and HR vs RHP all season. A high-miss-rate offense typically generates swing-and-miss counts even when suppressed overall. Projected 6 IP at his K/9 pace puts expected Ks at ~4.5, with 2-of-3 recent outings clearing it. Market offers +120 (45.5% implied) — positive expected value given the frequency data.
Cal Quantrill over 3.5 strikeoutsW
Sep 3, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.8300
Read original reasoning
Quantrill's last 7 outings: 36 K in 36.1 IP (~8.9 K/9) at a 1.49 ERA, 0.80 WHIP — historically elite run. Last 3 starts specifically: 8 K (6.0 IP), 6 K (6.0 IP), 5 K (7.0 IP) — every single one clears 3.5 with margin to spare. Direct series evidence: vs TB on Jul 28 2026 he went 5.1 IP with 7 K; vs TB on May 18 2025 he delivered 5.0 IP, 6 K. Home ERA of 2.61 across 48.1 IP. Line of 3.5 dramatically underprices his current K form and ownership of this specific matchup.
