Carlos Rodón over 5.5 strikeoutsV
Sep 16, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 2.0600
Read original reasoning
Rodón's 2026 K/9 is 10.0 (78 K in 70.1 IP). Career vs MIN: 9.8 K/9 across 17 games. 2026 road splits: 9.6 K/9 in 8 starts. Last 3 starts K totals: 8 (6.1 IP), 7 (5.0 IP), 5 (4.2 IP) — 2 of 3 cleared 5.5; the miss came in a shortened 4.2 IP start. At +106, this line is pricing him as a coin flip when his K rate against this specific opponent and road context both project comfortably above 5.5. MIN has lost 3 straight and is 3-7 in L10 — low-leverage hacks add strikeout volume. Risk: another short outing caps upside.
Carlos Rodón under 5.5 strikeoutsL
Sep 11, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.7400
Read original reasoning
Rodón's 2026 K rate is 9.84 K/9 over 64 IP, but his last 3 starts tell a different story: 7K in 5.0 IP, 5K in 4.2 IP, 2K in 4.0 IP — a sharp downward trend (7→5→2). The outs line at 15.5 (-122 under) signals the market expects roughly 5 innings from Rodón. At 5 IP and accounting for the recent trend, 5.5 Ks is an aggressive number. Facing the Mets — who have been offensively active lately (15-14, 9-4, 7-5 recent scores) — the short-outing risk is real. Market already leans under at -135, but the BvP trend and declining K totals justify the play.
Carlos Rodón under 4.5 strikeoutsL
Sep 5, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 2.1800
Read original reasoning
Rodón's last 3 starts: 5, 2, 4 Ks (avg 3.67 per outing) — all below the 4.5 line. His documented deep-count tendencies are limiting him to 5th-inning exits; beat writer analysis confirms he was knocked out in the 5th vs BOS on Aug 29. Season K/9 of 9.61 doesn't translate to recent games given shorter outings (4.0, 4.0, 4.2 IP in last 3). With a realistic 5-6 IP ceiling and 63 total Ks in 59.0 IP, the math on hitting over 4.5 in a curtailed start is unfavorable. +118 offers genuine value with recent data firmly backing the under.
