Carmen Mlodzinski under 2.5 strikeoutsL
Aug 17, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 2.0400
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Last 3 starts: 1K (2.1 IP, Aug 12), 1K (3.0 IP, Aug 07), 4K (3.0 IP, Aug 01). Averaging 2.0 Ks over those outings while failing to record more than 3 innings in any of them. Season K/9 of 7.07 (78 K in 99.2 IP) is masked by his early-season workload — recent usage shows a short-leash arm being pulled well before he can accumulate Ks. DET lineup has struggled offensively (.242 AVG, .727 OPS) but Mlodzinski is not generating whiffs right now. Under 2.5 at +104 is clear value when 2 of 3 recent outings produced exactly 1 strikeout.
Carmen Mlodzinski under 3.5 strikeoutsW
Aug 12, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.8400
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Mlodzinski's 2026 K/9 is 7.13 (77 K in 97.1 IP), but his last 3 starts tell the real story: 1K, 4K, 1K — all in 3.0-inning outings. He has been pulled before the 4th inning each of his last three appearances, capping his strikeout ceiling hard. At 7.13 K/9 over 3 IP, expected Ks are roughly 2.4. Market is essentially a coin-flip (-119 under / -118 over), which means there's genuine edge fading him here given the recent short-outing pattern. Under 3.5 is the play.
Carmen Mlodzinski over 3.5 strikeoutsL
Aug 7, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 2.1400
Read original reasoning
Mlodzinski's 2026 starter K/9 is 7.27 (76 K in 94.1 IP). His most recent NYM start (Mar 29, 2026) produced 8 K in 4.1 IP — his highest single-start K total of the season. Even returning from a relief role and projected for a limited 4-5 IP outing, clearing 3.5 Ks is a reasonable floor for this profile. The Mets post .234 team AVG, and his two-month relief stretch showed he maintained a 30 K / 39.1 IP rate (6.88 K/9). Market offers +114, making this a value play on a pitcher whose K floor comfortably covers 3.5.
