Casey Mize under 4.5 strikeoutsW
Sep 19, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.6000
Read original reasoning
Mize's last 3 starts: 0 K (5.0 IP vs COL Sep 14), 7 K (5.2 IP vs WSH Sep 08), 4 K (4.0 IP vs CIN Sep 02). The most recent outing was a complete strikeout blank. 2026 K/9 is 7.75 but consistently short outings (averaging ~4.7 IP last 3) cap upside severely. Market at -167 for the Under reflects the same read. MIA batters vs RHP are 60-52 on the season, a league-average contact unit — no elite strikeout rate to drive a big K total. Petco Park's suppression of offensive output further limits extended appearances.
Casey Mize over 3.5 strikeoutsL
Sep 14, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.5900
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Mize's 2026 K/9 sits at 8.07 (107 K in 119.1 IP), making the 3.5 line a low bar. Career outings at Coors vs COL: 8 K in 6.0 IP (May 2025) and 7 K in 4.2 IP (Sep 2024) — both strong K games at altitude. COL is on a 7-game losing streak and depleted mentally; their lineup features Tovar (.213 AVG), Beck (.197 AVG), and Goodman (.242 AVG) — all vulnerable to contact-suppression. Only caveat: Mize's Aug 28 start produced just 1 K, introducing variance. But at 3.5 strikeouts with an 8+ K/9 pitcher, the floor is low enough to play over.
Casey Mize under 4.5 strikeoutsL
Sep 8, 2026 ET · Odds at publication 1.6600
Read original reasoning
Mize's 2026 overall K/9 sits at 7.94 (100 K in 113.2 IP), but his recent 3-start trend is alarming: 4 K (4.0 IP), 1 K (5.0 IP), 0 K (2.2 IP) — just 5 total Ks in 11.2 IP. He's being pulled early and generating almost no swings-and-misses lately. WSH is a below-average strikeout team and Mize has struggled to get deep into games. The market prices Under at -152 (60.2%) reflecting this trend. Extended rest (6 days) can help command but not necessarily K rate. Under 4.5 has strong statistical backing.
